White Sox, Jackson Holliday and Jack Leiter struggles, Hitter Power Rankings

Happy Saturday!  We're almost a month into the season and finally have a solid sample size to make some assumptions about teams and their players.  

We're going to kick off this week's Dugout Debrief by looking at a once-promising team that is now the worst in the league by a wide margin, and if there's any hope that they can come close to respectable.  After that, we'll check in on baseball's top prospect as well as recap a former #2 picks debut, before finishing this week's edition with our first hitter power rankings of the season! 

White Sox, what happened??

It wasn't too long ago that the White Sox were considered legit contenders in the AL.  Two-plus years removed from a 2021 season where the White Sox finished 93-69 and had a promising young core, they are 3-16 19 games into the 2024 season. It's been a rapid tough change for White Sox fans, who don't have a lot to look forward to this season as the White Sox statistically look like the worst team in the league with not a lot of hopes of change.

Pitching-wise, the White Sox are 26th in ERA with a 4.57 team stat.  They've also blown five (5!!) games already which is already more than a quarter of their game played this season.  White Sox pitchers have a league-worst K:BB ratio of 1.9, meaning for every two batters they strike out, they will issue at least one free pass -- not a recipe for success in today's game where strikeouts are king.

This terrible K:BB ratio gets even worse when looking at their Fielding stats. While not a bottom-five team in fielding, they are 22nd in fielding percentage and errors and also boast a -2 OAA and -2 range.  This means hitters are rewarded more for putting the ball in play, whether by reaching on an error/misplay or a White Sox player just not being able or in a position to make a play.  This is even more concerning when you consider the White Sox have a Gold Glove centerfielder (a premium position) playing everyday for them, without Robert it's safe to assume the numbers would be much worse and this could be a bottom 5 unit.

The atrocity of their pitching and fielding has nothing on their hitting.  The White Sox are the worst offense in the league in many categories.  As of 4/20, the White Sox are dead last in: 

    - Hits (112)

    - Batting Average (.190)

    - Homeruns (10)

    - Runs (38)

    - OPS (.554--.052 lower than the 29th worst)

    - wRC (47)

As a team the White Sox K:BB ratio offensively, is an offensive 2.91, meaning they are giving away almost an innings worth of outs via strikeout for every walk they can draw.  All these metrics make it nearly impossible to win games, even if they had the best pitching staff of all time.  Sorry White Sox fans, this rebuild needs lots of work.

Top Prospect...Problems?

Jackson Holliday

There was a ton of chatter this Spring about the #1 overall prospect Jackson Holliday not making the Orioles' roster outright.  Holliday continued to rake in AAA and was officially called up to The Show on April 10th.  Unfortunately, Holliday's torrid spring and AAA season hasn't carried over into his rookie season.

In 8 games so far this season, Holliday has already accumulated -0.2fWAR.  Holliday currently is 1-28 with 4 runs, 1 RBI, 1BB and 15Ks.  This comes out to be a K and BB rate of 53.6% and 3.6% respectively, far below his Minor league and amateur rates.  Looking into the data further, Holliday has a 34.7% O-Swing rate which tells us how often a hitter is swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone.

This doesn't mean Holliday is a bust or isn't ready for the MLB.  He proved AAA isn't a match for him through the end of last season, spring training this year, and the first couple of games this season.  

We have to remember that the kid is still a kid.  He just turned 20 years old, and he has sky-high expectations and pressure on him, there are tons of examples of young, top prospects pressing at the major league level.  Anthony Volpe was brutal last year and looks like a completely different player this year, Riley Greene took some time to get going, and on the other side, Julio Rodriguez hasn't looked the same as his rookie season.  Young players take time to adjust to the highest level of the game, Jackson is still a big part of the Orioles' future plans, so don't write him off after only 8 games.

Jack Leiter

Leiter looked pro-ready coming out of Vanderbilt in 2021 and was considered a possibility to go first overall before "falling" to the Rangers at #2.  Unfortunately, walks plagued him throughout his first couple of seasons in the minors and landed him on the developmental list, as the Rangers hoped this would help him clean up his mechanics and he would re-discover the front of the rotation potential he showed. 

Something clicked for Leiter this offseason, dominating spring and AAA with a much lower walk rate and making his long-anticipated debut against the Tigers in Detroit.  Leiter's debut was a mixed bag.  He struck out the first batter of his career on three pitches in a strong first frame, struggled in the second inning (4 ER on 30+ pitches), and bounced back with an 8-pitch third inning before his day finished in the fourth after a Taveres misplay cost him three more runs.

On the day, Leiter finished with a stat line of 3.2IP, 8H, 7ER, 3BB, 3K on 85 pitches.  On paper, this is a bad stat line.  Take away the three runs and the line is a better but still not good 4IP 4ER.  It's also important to note that his command/control issues are still there.  In the first inning, his misses would be considered good misses--competitive pitches that hitters either didn't swing at or fouled off.  In the second and fourth innings, he was missing his spots badly, leading to more hitter-friendly counts the Tiger hitters could hone in on specific pitches and do damage.  

Hitter Power rankings

This is our first hitter power rankings of the year.  It's important to note that for this power ranking, we are only looking at what hitters have done so far this year results-wise.  Luck and a hitter's process are important for long-term projections, but for now, that's a non-factor.  The only requirement is that the hitters have to have 70 PA to qualify, and we're ranking by OPS.

Who on the list surprises you?

1. Marcell Ozuna, ATL

18G, 81PA, 26H, 8HR, 24RBI, .351/.407/.716, 1.124 OPS

2. Jose Altuve, HOU

21G, 96PA, 32H, 5HR, 7RBI, .377/.448/.647, 1.095 OPS

3. Mookie Betts, LAD

22G, 105PA, 31H, 6HR, 18RBI, .352/.457OBP/.636, 1.094 OPS

4. Juan Soto, NYY

20G, 94PA, 26H, 5HR, 20RBI, .347/.468/.600, 1.068 OPS

5. Michael Busch, CHC

18G, 70PA, 19H, 6HR, 13RBI, .317/.400/.667, 1.067 OPS

6. William Contreras, MIL

18G, 84PA, 26H, 4HR, 19RBI, .361/.441/.597, 1.038 OPS

7. Shohei Ohtani, LAD

22G, 101PA, 32H, 4HR, 11RBI, .356/.400/.622, 1.022 OPS

8. Jesse Winker, WAS

18G, 72PA, 20H, 2HR, 6RBI, .345/.458/.552, 1.010 OPS

9. Justin Turner, TOR

18G, 70PA, 20H, 2HR, 11RBI, .345/.429/.569, .998 OPS

10. Ketel Marte, ARZ

21G, 97PA, 30H, 5HR, 12RBI, .345/.392/.598, .990 OPS

Pitching "Pandemic": The rise of injuries

Every Spring and April baseball loses some of its best pitchers for an extended period.  For the lucky ones, they avoid catastrophe and can return after a couple of months.  For the majority, their season ends before it can even get going.  

Tommy John (aka UCL reconstruction surgery) isn't a new injury for pitchers, but this year feels different.  Every time a pitcher is scratched from a start or leaves a game early, the immediate thought is "he just tore his UCL, we're screwed." 

Early season injuries are common amongst both pitchers and position players, as players' bodies aren't fully ready to meet the physical demands of playing baseball nearly every day for 6 months.  However, it's hard to remember a time when this many pitchers have gotten this severely injured in this short a period.

We're not even 20 days into the baseball season, and big names such as Shane Bieber, and Spencer Strider join Kyle Bradish, and Eury Perez as the latest to have their seasons ended due to a sprained UCL.  Reigning AL Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole seems to be one of the lucky ones, and might only miss two months of his season.  

Let's not let these newest additions to the all-star roster currently on the IL due to elbow injuries make us forget that we've missed out on watching studs like Jacob Degrom, Shohei Ohtani, Sandy Alcantara, Shane McClanahan Lucas Giolito, Felix Bautista (and more!) compete every five days.

The players association was quick to blame the pitch clock (which the MLB immediately said was incorrect), but pinning what future hall-of-famer Justin Verlander calls a "pandemic" on one issue is too rash a reaction.  Frankly, pitcher injuries have consistently increased for years.  

"The game has changed a lot" - Justin Verlander

Getting outs isn't the main priority for a pitcher anymore.  Getting strikeouts is.  Hitters can hit nearly any pitch out of the park for a home run, and pitching to contact is seen as a dangerous game before considering the unpredictability of a ball in play.  Even bottom-of-the-lineup guys who were primarily defensive players and seen as easy outs a decade ago can be dangerous.  Hitters have evolved, so pitchers had to evolve as well.

Pitchers have never been harder to hit than they are now.  A two-foot-breaking pitch isn't rare anymore.  Throwing 95 mph or more isn't unique and is more of a requirement.  Starting pitchers aren't valued on going deep into games like they used to be, as analytically speaking pitchers give up more hits and runs the third time through the order, with the emphasis now being placed on throwing maximum effort to get through the order twice.  

How have pitchers evolved to this point? What has changed from the 00s to now?  The answer to this question is simple, pitchers have learned about the importance of spin. 

Spin is king.  

More spin leads to more breaks on breaking balls and more ride-on fastballs, which in turn leads to more strikeouts. There are only two ways to get more spin on your pitches.  The first way is to use a foreign substance to get a better grip on the baseball, a tactic that is illegal and now enforced in the MLB after the outbreak of pitchers taking advantage of the lax enforcement to gain a competitive advantage.  

The second way is simply to throw harder. Velocity is a double-edged sword.  The act of throwing harder not only makes your pitches travel to plate faster, giving hitters less time to react but also creates the late and large breaking sliders and sweepers that generate ugly swings.  However, throwing at or near maximum effort puts extra stress on the body.  Throwing 95 mph requires generating and transmitting force from the whole body into the ball.  This force puts serious stress on a pitcher's body and is typically centralized in the elbow and forearm, as these are the smallest muscles and ligaments involved at the end of the kinetic chain and therefore transmit the greatest amount of force.

This is where Scherzer and everyone else pointing at the pitch clock comes in.  The body needs time to recover after going through a stressful event like this.  Some players naturally have a higher recovery rate than others, but forcing pitchers to immediately get set and repeat this process at a much higher rate could certainly lead to more injuries. 

The argument is incredibly sound, and it was foolish of the MLB to immediately discredit the argument, but it's too early to tell the total effects of the pitch clock on a pitcher's body.  It just hasn't existed long enough yet.

Dugout Debrief: Opening Weekend

Happy Monday!  Opening weekend has come and gone and fans everywhere are (over?)reacting to the small sample size we've seen so far.  We've got a long season ahead of us and plenty of baseball to watch this week so let's dive into this edition of the dugout debrief, starting with a must-have change to the sport followed by some quick hitters.

Umpire Problems

Over the past two offseasons, we've seen the MLB make plenty of changes to try to increase the watchability of our great game.  They've increased the base size and limited "disengages" to encourage stolen bases.  They've restricted shifts to help players show off their athleticism on defense while increasing hits for lefties, and even added a pitch clock to increase the general speed of the game.  

The results of these changes have been better than the MLB could've expected.  Games are faster and much more action-packed, but they have yet to address the biggest issue with the gameplay itself: the umpires.  

Umpires have always been a factor in determining baseball games.  Different home plate umpires have different strike zones, some are more pitcher-friendly, some more hitter-friendly, and some are just neutral.  As analytics has advanced, pitchers and hitters have received scouting reports on each umpire's tendencies, and adjusted their approaches that day accordingly.

For example, if the home plate umpire is known to call fewer inside strikes to right-handed hitters, right-handed hitters would know they could lay off tough borderline strikes on the inside part of the plate because the Umpire would probably call it a ball.  Additionally, if a pitcher noticed the umpire giving them a borderline strike call, they would continue to attack that part of the zone knowing they would either get a called strike or force the hitter to swing at a pitch they either don't want to swing at or can't do damage with. 

This game within the game is intriguing at times but overall has become too big of a story, with umpires consistently costing teams games with bad calls.  It's only April and some fanbases are already fed up with umpires missing easy calls.  Take this pitch from Max Fried, a clear strike to everyone watching except the most important person, home plate umpire Bruce Deckmen, who called it a ball. Sure the Braves won the game but this "ball" ended up extending the inning and allowed the Phillies to score runs they shouldn't have.

These games are only in March, but imagine this cost a fringe wildcard team a game in September causing them to miss the playoffs?  What if it cost a team the division?

The MLB has spent years working on an automatic ball strike (ABS) system, and it's mind-blowing they aren't taking more urgency in implementing this system at the major league level.  Not only does the ABS prevent teams and fans from feeling like they got screwed out of a game, but also will lead to hitters getting more pitches to drive as they no longer have to worry about a ball being called a strike.  

The game has become so much more entertaining over the last year, but it's time that MLB makes another sweeping change and brings in the ABS to take the game to the next level.

Quick Hitters

Let's go over some of the smaller trends and takeaways from the weekend in the quick hitters section!

Mariners Three-Headed Monster: It's an easy argument to claim the Mariners have the best rotation in baseball, led by their three-headed monster of Cy Young Candidates.  The Red Sox had the pleasure of facing off against Luis Castillo, George Kirby, and Logan Gilbert to start their season, and it's safe to say they're looking forward to facing some easier pitchers in the coming days.  Overall, the three combined for 18.2IP, 12H, 5R, 5BBs, and 21Ks for an ERA of 2.41 and WHIP under 1.00.

Astros Home Woes: Going back to last year's ALDS, the Astros have now lost 9 consecutive home games after this weekend's four-game sweep by the Yankees.  It's still extremely early but it's concerning to see from a team that's set themselves as the standard across the sport over the past 6 years.  

Juan Soto Effect: Juan Soto has established himself already as one of the best hitters in the league at only the age of 26, but he continued his torment of the Astros this weekend.  Soto was the biggest contributor in three of the Yankee's four wins this weekend, throwing out the game-tying run in the ninth inning of game 1, hitting the go-ahead home run in game three, and driving in the winning run against All-Star Josh Hader in game four.  Soto finished the weekend with a comical stat line of .529/.600/.765 for an OPS of 1.365. 

New Giants paying off: The Giant's offseason was overshadowed by the rest of the craziness of the division (i.e. Dodger's billion-dollar offseason, DBack's shrewd signings), but they're entering this season with three new players in the top four of their lineup.  So far, it's looking like money well spent, as Jung Hoo Lee and Matt Chapman have been key contributors in their wins against the Padres.  

Yoshinobu Yamamoto's bounce back: After a nightmare debut, Yamamoto had a nice bounce back against the Cardinals, throwing 5 scoreless frames while striking out five.

Lourdes "Barry Bonds" Gurriel: There might not be a scarier power threat than Lourdes Gurriel right now.  Against the Rockies, Gurriel went 8/17 with three home runs and two doubles for a slugging percentage of 1.118.  

ICYM

• Pitcher of the day! Check out our Twitter where we crown a pitcher who either performed the best the previous day or pitched well in tough circumstances!
• Opening Day Review and Breakdown
• Doublin' Down: Did Ohtani Bet on Baseball
• Rockies Rebuild Plan