2024 Recap
Record: 95-67, 1st in NL East, Eliminated in NLDS
The Phillies were arguably the best team in baseball heading into the All-Star break of 2024 and finished with the second-best record in baseball and a division championship despite a slower second half. Their star-studded lineup was outshined by their rotation. Cy Young runner-up Zack Wheeler and their homegrown star Aaron Nola were joined by breakout campaigns for Cristopher Sanchez and Ranger Suarez to create a scary 1-4.
However, their season came to a disappointing finish, losing to the Mets in four games in the divisional series, with the bullpen letting them down and the offense disappearing at an inopportune time.
2025 Outlook
Key Additions:
- Jesus Luzardo, SP (Trade with Marlins)
- Jordan Romano, RP (Free Agent, 1 yr $8.5m)
- Max Kepler, COF (Free Agent, 1 yr $10m)
- Joe Ross, SP/RP (Free Agent, 1 yr $4m
Key Departures:
- Jeff Hoffman, RP (Free Agency)
- Carlos Estevez, RP (Free Agency)
- Spencer Turnbull, SP (Free Agency)
- Austin Hays, COF (Non-Tendered)
Heading into 2025, the Phillies are running back the same offensive core -- Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, JT Realmuto, Nick Castellanos -- that only has a few years left. Harper is still one of the best players in the game, but the other four have their question marks. Schwarber is a set-and-forget DH who is a prime example of a three-true outcome hitter (home runs, walks, strikeouts). After struggling to start the 2023 season, Trea Turner spent some time on the IL in 2024 but looked more like the player we've come to expect.
Castellanos has seen a decline, performing at a replacement level in recent years, leading to the addition of Max Kepler (replacing Austin Hays), who should probably be a platoon partner for him in right field. Meanwhile, Realmuto will be 34 this season but remains a solid option at catcher, even though his best years are behind him.
The biggest addition is Jesus Luzardo, who has dealt with injuries but has looked unbelievable when he's healthy and at his best. A rotation of Wheeler, Nola, Luzardo, Sanchez, and Suarez is one of the best in the league and is a strength that the Phillies hope to ride to get to the World Series.
The Phil's bullpen will look a little different in 2025, with the departures of Carlos Estevez (acquired at the 2024 trade deadline) and closer Jeff Hoffman. To address this, the Phillies signed ex-Blue Jays closer Jordan Romano, who dealt with injuries in 2024 and missed almost the entire season. If Romano is healthy, he's a proven closer who the Phillies can rely on in high-leverage situations, but they still need to add more to the pen. Joe Ross will likely be in a swing-man role, helping out as a spot starter or long reliever when needed.
X-Factor: Andrew Painter, SP
The Phillies' biggest wildcard, is top prospect Andrew Painter who made a much-anticipated return in the AFL after having Tommy John surgery in 2023. Painter is a potential ace, armed with a 70-grade fastball and 60-grade slider that is lethal from his imposing 6'7 frame. If Painter keeps checking off the boxes in Spring Training, look for him to be a nice internal boost for the Phillies this summer.
Offseason Grade and Prediction
While on paper, the Phillies improved their rotation and added a proven closer, Luzardo and Romano have legitimate injury concerns and could not be the players we expect them to be. The rotation is one of the best in baseball even without Luzardo, but the bullpen needs more than just Jose Alvarado and Matt Strahm if they want to contend for a World Series.
The Phillies might have benefitted from pursuing Teoscar Hernandez or Tyler O'Neill rather than signing Max Kepler, as an impact righty would be invaluable around the power-hitting lefties Schwarber and Harper.
Overall, this remains a very good team that should dominate the regular season, but this is essentially the same team as the 2024 team that got eliminated by the Mets (who got better) and was already chasing the Dodgers/Padres, with Luzardo and Romano. They improved a bit, but it's hard to see their postseason run looking different from 2024.
Offseason Grade: B-
2025 Prediction: 1st in NL East, Eliminated in the NLDS
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