The Trade Deadline is officially behind us now and the only reinforcements teams can expect will become from within the organization. As with every trade deadline, there were some winners, some losers, and some situations that we'll need to wait until at least the offseason to evaluate.
This was definitely one of the more unique trade deadlines in recent memory. As of three weeks ago, there was uncertainty if the best player to ever touch a baseball (Shohei Ohtani) would be available and the cost it would take to pry him from the Angels. There was also uncertainty about how the Padres would handle the deadline as they potentially had the best pure hitter (Juan Soto), best reliever (Josh Hader), and an ace peaking at the right time (Blake Snell) to sell. Alas, all four of these players stayed put, leaving the hot stove with not many impact players making this one of the weaker trade deadlines in recent memory. Let's talk about it.
Winners:
There were four teams who I thought had fantastic trade deadlines and definitely did everything they could to try to win the World Series. Three of them are even in the same division! Here they are in no particular order:
The Astros:
The Astros brought back a fan favorite, future first-ballot hall of famer, and still elite pitcher Justin Verlander for at least the next two years. The kicker in all this is that the Mets will be footing the majority of the bill, paying 35m a year for Verlander's contract that could go through 2025 if the vesting option is triggered. The Astros also reunited with bullpen arm Kendall Graveman, who can immediately help tighten up the back end of the bullpen.
The Astros gave up three good prospects for these moves but now boast an offensive core of Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuvé and a rotation featuring Verlander, Framber Valdez, and Hunter Brown with more reinforcements (Lance McCullers, Luis Garcia) on the way. Any AL team that wanted a chance to win the World Series still had to take that privilege from the Astros, and now that task just got a whole lot tougher.
Rangers:
The Rangers losing Degrom definitely hurt, but acquiring Max Scherzer (for the next year and a half) on a discount is a solid consolation prize. Despite some cracks in his health, Max Scherzer still pitched to a 2.29 ERA last year. If he can regain this form, the Rangers acquired a pitcher with tons of postseason experience that can help them compete with the Astros. The kicker to this trade is that the Mets, like with Justin Verlander, are footing a majority of his salary, paying about $35m of the remaining $58m Scherzer is owed. The Rangers also traded with the Cardinals, acquiring lefty Jordan Montgomery and righty Chris Stratton providing some much-needed depth with Eovaldi landing on the IL.
The Rangers previously acquired Aroldis Chapman to help provide some support in the back of the bullpen, but currently have three key players on the IL (Corey Seager, Jonah Heim, Nathan Eovaldi), and winning the division will be an extremely tough ask. However, if all these players come back healthy, the Rangers will be an extremely tough out in the playoffs if Scherzer can pitch to the level we're accustomed to seeing from him.
Angels:
A couple of weeks ago, the Angels faced a predicament that could've made them the butt of a joke for at least a century. They had no idea what to do with Shohei Ohtani, a modern-day and better version of Babe Ruth. Do they trade him for prospects that could flame out? Do they stand put and potentially miss the playoffs? The Angels went for the bold idea to go all in this season despite being decently far back in the wild-card race, and man did they go for it. The Angels acquired one of the best starters available in Lucas Giolito, as well as righty pitcher Dominic Leone to help solidify the pitching staff. Red hot left fielder Taylor Ward went down after Alek Manoah accidentally hit him in the face with a fastball, so the Angels called the Rockies and acquired one of the best left-field options available in Randal Grichuk as well as power-hitting first baseman C.J. Cron.
You can't fault the Angels for trying. The Angels have wasted away Mike Trout's career, and despite pairing him up with Ohtani, have still never won a playoff game. This is the correct move as Mike Trout should be returning soon and if you make a magical run, maybe Ohtani will resign. Any team boasting Ohtani and Trout is a threat to win any game. Hopefully, all these reinforcements mean they can finally play some meaningful ones this October.
White Sox:
Not all the winners were buyers. The White Sox were the most successful sellers, netting five very solid prospects while breaking down their roster. They sold both rentals and players with some control left, which also sends a message. The White Sox have consistently been favored to come out of the AL Central and always fall short of expectations, never going deep into the playoffs or posing a big threat to any World Series contenders. The White Sox have been too right-handed and unathletic for too long, but now they've finally at least committed to a re-tool where they can build a team that will hopefully compete for World Series.
Losers:
There were five teams that I believe had terrible deadlines. Whether it be due to lack of activity, bad luck, or questionable decisions, these teams missed out on an opportunity to get better. Ironically, like with the winners, three are in the same division.
Yankees: I'm not going to go into this too much since we just wrote an article about this last night, but the Yankees only added two relievers, despite boasting the best bullpen ERA in baseball. The team's offense has been non-existent outside of Aaron Judge and good pitching can't help a team that only scores one or two runs a game. If you'd like to read more about this, check out our article here.
Rays: The Rays being a loser might surprise some people as they're currently in first place in the best division in baseball, but they fall under the category of inactivity. The Rays' deadline moves included a reliever swap with the Cubs and a trade to acquire a backup catcher from the Brewers. Looking at the Rays from a distance, it's easy to be convinced that they're still the best team in the AL, but when you look at their record a little bit closer, you can see some flaws. The Rays started out ridiculously hot, going 40-18 through May, but since then played to a .500 record going 26-26. This would not be a concern to most teams as typically that hot start can carry your lead through the end of the regular season but the young upstart Orioles are right on their heels and are a threat to steal the division from them.
Orioles: Speaking of the young upstart Orioles, they also weren't very active at the deadline despite having a chance to add players that could separate themselves from the rest of the pack. They've been right on the Rays' tail, but their starters are on pace to set career highs in innings pitched by a wide margin. The Orioles also have one of the strongest farm systems in baseball and a good amount of MLB-ready talent and top prospects but realistically not enough room
Toward the end of the deadline, the Orioles were able to add one of the better pitchers available in Jack Flaherty, but other than that they made no major additions to their rotation. In addition to this move, the Orioles should've tried to make a trade for E-Rod from the Tigers, especially after he blocked a trade to the Dodgers to stay closer to his family on the East Coast, to further add to the starting rotation. If not E-Rod, the Orioles also could've looked to make a trade package with the Pirates receiving All-Star pitchers Mitch Keller and David Bednar, but there's no confirmation that they even attempted to make this trade. The Orioles also allegedly tried to make a last-minute trade with the White Sox to add ace Dylan Cease but the White Sox were clear it would take a ridiculous offer to pry Cease from them, and the Orioles should've focused more on either of the moves stated above.
Tigers: The Tigers had the best available starter and unfortunately are stuck with him the rest of the year. E-Rod will be opting out of his contract barring injury and the Tigers will be losing him for nothing. However, it's not for a lack of effort as the Tigers agreed to a trade with the Dodgers that would've sent E-Rod to L.A. but unfortunately for them, he refused to lift his no-trade clause and veto'd the trade.
Dodgers: As mentioned above the Dodgers tried to add the best starting pitching rental, but failed due to circumstances outside of their control. However, this is not why the Dodgers were losers at the deadline. The Dodgers made plenty of moves, adding utility player Kiké Hernandez, shortstop Amed Rosario, and pitchers Ryan Yarbrough, Lance Lynn, and Joe Kelly. Despite adding these five players, none of whom make the Dodgers that much better. Kiké Hernandez has been one of the worst players in baseball this year, accumulating a -0.7 WAR. Amed Rosario is a fine shortstop, Joe Kelly is a good reliever, and Ryan Yarbrough has pitched well for the Royals, but for a team with World Series aspirations these players don't move the needle enough to make anyone believe they can contend with the Braves. Lance Lynn they'll have through 2024 as well, but he's pitched to a 6.32 ERA and 5.33 FIP (per Fangraphs) and his best years seem to be behind him.
Wait and See
Two teams fall under this category for very different reasons. We'll need to wait until at least December before we can determine if these teams were winners or losers at the deadline.
Marlins: The Marlins, surprising to some, are in the playoff race. This team is deep with young starting pitching and knows that with a solid offense, they have the potential to be a contender for years. The Marlins were in on Gleyber Torres but the Yankees' asking price was too steep, so they pivoted to adding Josh Bell and Jake Burger, replacing Jean Segura and Garrett Cooper who were traded away. In addition, the Marlins traded for closer David Robertson and did a reliever swap with the Twins, receiving 2022 All-Star Jorge Lopez for Dylan Floro to hopefully add to the an underrated bullpen.
Josh Bell and Jake Burger potentially provide something to the lineup that only Jorge Soler did previously: Home Run Power. Josh Bell and Jake Burger are two players that don't make a lot of contact, but when they do they typically hit the ball hard. However, Josh Bell is currently having a down year so the Marlins need him to turn it around if they want to make a run deep into the postseason. The starting rotation can hang with any team but without run support provided by a lineup headlined by Luis Arraez, Soler, Bell, and Burger, this team will struggle to win games.
Mets: The Mets made a couple of moves but we're going to focus on the two big ones we discussed earlier, trading Scherzer and Verlander. The Mets got arguably the three best prospects traded this deadline and essentially bought them by eating $90m in salary between the two of them. Scherzer, after being traded, said the reason he waived his no-trade clause is that the Mets are looking to compete in 2025-2026. These moves emphasize that statement as the Mets essentially bought highly-rated prospects from the Rangers and Braves, but when you have as much money as Uncle Stevie does, you can make these types of moves.
The reason we need to wait and see for the Mets has nothing to do with the players they traded away. They accepted the hard truth that they weren't in a good spot to contend this year and potentially next year and leveraged their financial strength into jumpstarting a rebuild. As with all prospects, there's no guarantee the players acquired in these trades will live up to their potential.
In addition to these prospects developing as expected there still are plenty of questions that only time can answer. In addition to the acquired prospects, will Alvarez, Mauricio, and Baty develop as expected? What will Lindor and Nimmo look like in three years, will they still be elite defensively while still contributing on offense? Will Edwin Diaz still be an elite closer or will they need to look to add there as well. What do they do with Pete Alonso now?
Closing thoughts
Overall it was a crazier deadline than anticipated and the trades made will have an impact on the teams above for years. In the American League, the Astros reaffirmed that they're the team to beat while the Rangers and Angels made moves showing they're determined to take them down. In the National League, I don't think the Dodgers did nearly enough to close the gap between them and the Braves while the Mets trade deadline strategy could become a blueprint for teams with lots of money (such as the Padres, Dodgers, and Yankees)
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