Tuesday, August 13, 2024

8/13 Mound Visit: Merrill's Stellar Season, Snell's Resurgence, Caminero's Call Up

The Mound visit is back!  We're halfway through the dog days of August and the league is wide open. Some teams are clawing to stay in the playoff/division race while others have an eye to the future. Let's take a deeper dive into three players to watch down the stretch, starting with an unsung rookie sensation, followed by a Cy Young resurgence before finishing with a quick breakdown of a top prospect's return.  


Jackson Merrill's Stellar Season

Rookie Jackson Merrill has been quietly putting together a phenomenal season for the Padres. The former shortstop-turned-center fielder has posted some impressive numbers: a 3.4 fWAR, 125 wRC+, and a solid .289/.321/.479 slash line, good for a .800 OPS.

Despite these stellar statistics and late-game heroics, Merrill has flown somewhat under the radar, partly due to the historical dominance of ROY favorite Paul Skenes and partly due to playing for a West Coast team. 

As impressive as Merrill has been, a closer look at his Baseball Savant metrics suggests we've yet to see his best. Merrill ranks in the 87th percentile for xwOBA, 94th in xBA, and 91st in xSLG (all higher than his current stats), indicating some positive regression may be on the horizon.

As impressive as Merrill's been offensively, his defense has been even more impressive.  Despite only playing five games in the outfield in his entire career, he's showcased elite defense in center field with 5 Outs Above Average (91st percentile) and ranks in the 84th percentile for overall fielding run value. Merrill is truly a force in all aspects of the game, as he is in the 98th percentile of Baseball Savant's baserunning Run-Value metric, showcasing the completeness of his game.

Merrill is also only just 21 years old and still has room for improvement, particularly in his plate discipline. His walk rate sits in the 10th percentile, while his chase rate of 36% is in the bottom 9th percentile. As he refines these aspects of his game, Merrill could develop into one of the most complete players in the league.


Blake Snell: The Second Half Surge

Blake Snell's 2024 season has been a tale of two halves, mirroring his Cy Young-winning campaign from the previous year. After a brutal start that saw him post ERAs of 11.57 in April, 8.59 in May, and 5.79 in June, Snell has found his groove.

July saw Snell post a microscopic 0.75 ERA over 24 innings, followed by an equally impressive 1.27 ERA over 21.1 innings in August. This resurgence isn't just smoke and mirrors; Snell's underlying metrics support his dominance. His FIP in July and August sat at 2.10 and 1.96, respectively, indicating his success is sustainable.

Baseball Savant paints an even more impressive picture of Snell's recent performance:

  • 97th percentile in xERA at 2.61
  • 91st percentile in average exit velocity at 86.5 MPH
  • 98th percentile in hard-hit percentage at 29.1%
  • 98th percentile in whiff percentage at 36.1%
  • 95th percentile in strikeout percentage at 32.7%

As the season enters its final months, Snell appears poised to continue his dominance and potentially set himself up for a big payday come this offseason.


Junior Caminero: The Prodigy Returns

The baseball world is buzzing with the news that Junior Caminero, the #2 prospect in baseball, is returning to the major leagues. After a brief 36-plate appearance stint in 2023, Caminero is back and ready to make his mark.

Quad injuries limited Caminero to just 59 minor league games this season, likely delaying his call-up. However, in 53 games at  AAAl, he showed why he's so highly regarded, slashing .276/.331/.498 for an .828 OPS and a 109 wRC+.

Defensively, Caminero has experience across the infield, logging time at third base, shortstop, and second base in the minors, with the majority of his innings coming at the hot corner. He's expected to take over as the everyday third baseman at the major league level, allowing versatile teammate Morel to split time between second base and first base.


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