The "Crapshoot" Playoffs and a 6 IP requirement for Starters?

As we approach the stretch run of the 2024 season, the landscape is more unpredictable than ever. There is no clear-cut "favorite", as the best teams in the league have legitimate flaws, and no team seems destined to reach the elusive 100-win mark. The playoff picture is a chaotic mix of flawed contenders and surging underdogs, setting the stage for what could be one of the most thrilling postseasons in recent memory. 

Looking toward the future, the MLB is reportedly considering a major rule change that would redefine the role of the (modern) starting pitcher, potentially altering the strategy and dynamics of the game. In this post, we’ll explore the rollercoaster ride that is this year’s playoff race and delve into the implications of this proposed new rule for starting pitchers. 

The 2024 Playoffs: A Battle of Flawed Contenders

As we approach the final stretch of the season, a 100-win season for any team looks like a longshot. I ran a poll in the "Baseball Worldwide" Twitter community asking which team is most likely to reach the century mark in wins this year, with the Orioles leading with 50% of the vote. 

However, the most realistic answer is probably no team.

As of 8/19, the Phillies boast the best winning percentage in baseball at .589, which translates to a 95-win pace. Not far behind are the Yankees, Dodgers, and Orioles (.584), who are then closely followed by the Guardians and Brewers (.581). Digging deeper into each team reveals some significant question marks that make a 100-win season even more unlikely.

Team Weaknesses

• Yankees and Orioles: Both teams struggle with unreliable bullpens, which could be their Achilles' heel in the postseason when they need to protect small leads against the best lineups in the sport.  Additionally, the Yankees seem to have an inability to hit left-handed pitching
• Dodgers: While they have a solid top of the roster, their lack of depth in the starting rotation and bottom of the lineup raises concerns
• Phillies: The Phillies have had a rough stretch since the All-Star break, posting the third-worst record in the league. Their pitching staff, a strength pre-all-star break, has regressed significantly.
• Guardians: Offense wins games, and the Guardians have scored the same number of runs as the Pirates since the All-Star break—a worrying sign for a team hoping to make a deep postseason run.

However, because of this balance at the top of the league, the playoff picture is far from settled, as some teams have come out of the All-Star break red hot and have made the AL West, AL Central, and NL West extremely fun

Hot Teams Making a Push

• Diamondbacks: With a 20-8 record since the All-Star break, they are only 4 games back of the Dodgers.
• Padres: The Padres have been the best team in baseball post-break, going 20-6 and closing the gap to just 3 games.
• Astros: With a 17-10 record, the Astros have pulled 4 games clear of the Mariners in the AL West.
• Royals: The Royals have surged to within 3 games of the Guardians with a 17-10 record.
• Twins: The Twins are right on the Guardians' heels, just 2 games back after going 16-12 since the break.

The AL East, in particular, is shaping up to be a thrilling finish, with the Orioles and Yankees seemingly begging each other to take the division lead. It might all come down to the last three games of the season between these two storied rivals.

Meanwhile, despite their post-break slump, the Phillies are still 7 games clear in the NL East and will likely cruise to a division title, thanks to their strong first half.

Overall Records as of 8/20

A New Starting Pitcher Requirement: Game-Changer or Misstep?

Last week, reports emerged that MLB is considering a rule change that would require starting pitchers to pitch at least 6 innings with some exceptions. The exceptions are:

• The starter throws 100 pitches.
• He gives up four or more earned runs.
• He gets injured (with a required Injured List stint to avoid manipulation).

This proposal aims to bring more value back to the starting pitcher role. In an era where it's rare to see a starter go beyond five innings, this rule aims to bring back the value of the starting pitcher.

Impact on Pitcher Training

If implemented, this rule would likely change how pitchers train and prepare. Rather than focusing solely on maximizing strikeouts, pitchers would need to balance effectiveness with the ability to navigate the opposing lineup three or more times. This could lead to a resurgence in the value of pitching to soft contact and command over pure velocity.

Market Value of 2-4 Starters

The market value for solid 2-4 starters would likely skyrocket under this new rule. While aces like Gerrit Cole, Corbin Burnes, and Justin Verlander are already highly valued, pitchers who can consistently deliver quality 6-inning starts would become even more coveted as teams would no longer be able to rely as heavily on elite bullpen arms to cover half the game.

Issues with the Proposed Exceptions

While the idea is intriguing, the proposed exceptions need some refining.

• 100 Pitches: The 100-pitch limit is arbitrary and doesn't account for a pitcher's condition. Advanced metrics now allow us to better assess when a pitcher is tiring, such as changes in arm angle or stride length. This fixed number could be problematic, especially for the start of the season or for pitchers returning from injury who are still building up their stamina.

• Four or More Earned Runs: This exception seems reasonable at first glance, but could lead to unintended consequences. For example, a pitcher who unravels after a couple of errors might still be forced to keep pitching, even though the game is slipping away. Moreover, down the stretch, if a team is facing an opposing ace, they might prefer a solid 5-inning, 3-run performance from their 5th starter. With this rule, they could be forced to take a chance on that starter facing the lineup for a third or fourth time, risking the game being pushed out of reach.

• Injury Concerns: The injury exception is also problematic. Often, pitchers are removed as a precaution to avoid more severe injuries. Under this rule, pitchers might downplay their injuries to avoid an IL stint, potentially leading to worse outcomes. Additionally, minor issues like blisters, which can severely impact a pitcher's effectiveness, wouldn't qualify for an early exit, possibly leading to more runs and a forced removal under the earned runs rule.