The Rockies are not in a good spot. Not only do they share a division with a regular season juggernaut in the Dodgers, but also now they have to worry about the 2023 World Series runner-ups Diamondbacks and their young core for years to come. To top this all off, the Rockies are coming off their worst season in the Franchise's 30-year history and have a lot more problems than building blocks. Here's how the Rockies should approach their rebuild!
1. Embrace Power Pitching as an Organizational Philosophy
The Rockies have a unique home-field situation. Coors Park is at an extremely high altitude, affecting the games uniquely. The high altitude causes breaking pitches to break less and fly balls to carry more, causing deep flyouts in regular stadiums to find their way into the seats. To combat this, the Rockies need to embrace power pitching, and ideally power sinkers.
Power pitching relies on high-velocity fastballs and sharp-breaking balls to get plenty of swings and misses. Typically the downside to power pitching is that the harder a pitch comes in, the harder it's going to come off the bat (i.e. higher exit Velo). In a stadium like Coors however, the added exit velo isn't that bad a consequence, as most deep flyballs will be a home run anyway and the higher exit velo will just result in homers going from 400-foot shots to 430-foot shots. Either way, it's still a home run.
The benefit of more whiffs and strikeouts is very straightforward. A batter can't do damage if they can't hit the ball. Per Baseball Savant, the Rockies' pitching staff was 5% below average in Whiff%, finishing with a 20.9% whiff% as a pitching staff compared to the 25.8% league average.
The Rockies can take this to the next level by targeting pitchers with a power sinker. Not only would a power sinker lead to higher Whiff rates, but the power sinker has the added benefit of leading to soft grounders as they are extremely difficult to square up. This added fact negates Coors' offensive effect both by limiting contact, but also by limiting flyballs when contact is made.
2. Embrace Contact Hitting
Like with point one, the Rockies need to embrace an organizational change to their hitting as well. As a team last season, the Rockies had a higher chase rate, Whiff % than the league average last season (per Baseball Savant). When the Rockies did make contact, they hit an average amount of fly balls and an above-average amount of line drives compared to the rest of the MLB, allowing them to utilize their home-field advantage more.
As prospects in their system develop, there needs to be an emphasis on not striking out, and putting the ball in the air. This will allow them to benefit from their unique home-field advantage, as every time they put the ball in the air, good things could happen. A soft contact pop-up at 29 other stadiums could call in for a bloop single, a long flyout can turn into a home run, and a soft line drive into the gap can go all the way to the wall turning into an extra-base hit. The Rockies need to embrace their home-field advantage by putting the ball in play more consistently and laying off bad pitches that will lead to weak grounders and swings and misses.
3. Trade Kris Bryant
It's safe to say this contract isn't working out for either party. The Rockies signed Kris Bryant thinking he could replace Trevor Story's bat in their lineup after winning 74 games in 2021, but injuries have limited him to just 120 games over the first two seasons. Over these 120 games, Bryant hasn't been the player we grew accustomed to seeing during his time with the Cubs, accumulating -0.6 rWAR over the last two seasons (per Baseball Reference).
Meanwhile, Bryant said he should've been more familiar with the Rockies farm system (per The Athletic), acknowledging the team is still far away from competing. Bryant, now on the wrong side of 30, probably doesn't want to spend the rest of his career on a massive rebuild.
It's easy to blame injuries for Bryant's struggles, and he could offer some value to a team trying to compete thanks to his ability to play multiple positions at a solid defensive level when healthy. Bryant still has 5 years and 131m remaining on his current contract, and it would benefit the Rockies to eat some of that money to move him and bring back prospects that fit their new philosophies mentioned above as they look to continue their rebuild.
4. Play the Young Core:
Despite all the issues on the roster, the Rockies do have some solid young talent. Nolan Jones could be a top 50 player in the MLB this season. Ezequiel Tovar put up a respectable 2.5 rWAR season in his first full season in the show playing good defense at shortstop. Drew Romo should make his way to the big league club this season after having a solid 2023 season in AA (and finishing at AAA for a couple of games).
The Rockies need to keep allowing their young core an opportunity to prove that they can be a cornerstone for this team going forward. If they show this capability, the Rockies should look to lock them into a long-term contract, buying out their arbitration years at a team-friendly price to give the team flexibility to build around them as they enter their primes.
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