Happy Saturday! We're almost a month into the season and finally have a solid sample size to make some assumptions about teams and their players.
We're going to kick off this week's Dugout Debrief by looking at a once-promising team that is now the worst in the league by a wide margin, and if there's any hope that they can come close to respectable. After that, we'll check in on baseball's top prospect as well as recap a former #2 picks debut, before finishing this week's edition with our first hitter power rankings of the season!
White Sox, what happened??
It wasn't too long ago that the White Sox were considered legit contenders in the AL. Two-plus years removed from a 2021 season where the White Sox finished 93-69 and had a promising young core, they are 3-16 19 games into the 2024 season. It's been a rapid tough change for White Sox fans, who don't have a lot to look forward to this season as the White Sox statistically look like the worst team in the league with not a lot of hopes of change.
Pitching-wise, the White Sox are 26th in ERA with a 4.57 team stat. They've also blown five (5!!) games already which is already more than a quarter of their game played this season. White Sox pitchers have a league-worst K:BB ratio of 1.9, meaning for every two batters they strike out, they will issue at least one free pass -- not a recipe for success in today's game where strikeouts are king.
This terrible K:BB ratio gets even worse when looking at their Fielding stats. While not a bottom-five team in fielding, they are 22nd in fielding percentage and errors and also boast a -2 OAA and -2 range. This means hitters are rewarded more for putting the ball in play, whether by reaching on an error/misplay or a White Sox player just not being able or in a position to make a play. This is even more concerning when you consider the White Sox have a Gold Glove centerfielder (a premium position) playing everyday for them, without Robert it's safe to assume the numbers would be much worse and this could be a bottom 5 unit.
The atrocity of their pitching and fielding has nothing on their hitting. The White Sox are the worst offense in the league in many categories. As of 4/20, the White Sox are dead last in:
- Hits (112)
- Batting Average (.190)
- Homeruns (10)
- Runs (38)
- OPS (.554--.052 lower than the 29th worst)
- wRC (47)
As a team the White Sox K:BB ratio offensively, is an offensive 2.91, meaning they are giving away almost an innings worth of outs via strikeout for every walk they can draw. All these metrics make it nearly impossible to win games, even if they had the best pitching staff of all time. Sorry White Sox fans, this rebuild needs lots of work.
Top Prospect...Problems?
Jackson Holliday
There was a ton of chatter this Spring about the #1 overall prospect Jackson Holliday not making the Orioles' roster outright. Holliday continued to rake in AAA and was officially called up to The Show on April 10th. Unfortunately, Holliday's torrid spring and AAA season hasn't carried over into his rookie season.
In 8 games so far this season, Holliday has already accumulated -0.2fWAR. Holliday currently is 1-28 with 4 runs, 1 RBI, 1BB and 15Ks. This comes out to be a K and BB rate of 53.6% and 3.6% respectively, far below his Minor league and amateur rates. Looking into the data further, Holliday has a 34.7% O-Swing rate which tells us how often a hitter is swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone.
This doesn't mean Holliday is a bust or isn't ready for the MLB. He proved AAA isn't a match for him through the end of last season, spring training this year, and the first couple of games this season.
We have to remember that the kid is still a kid. He just turned 20 years old, and he has sky-high expectations and pressure on him, there are tons of examples of young, top prospects pressing at the major league level. Anthony Volpe was brutal last year and looks like a completely different player this year, Riley Greene took some time to get going, and on the other side, Julio Rodriguez hasn't looked the same as his rookie season. Young players take time to adjust to the highest level of the game, Jackson is still a big part of the Orioles' future plans, so don't write him off after only 8 games.
Jack Leiter
Leiter looked pro-ready coming out of Vanderbilt in 2021 and was considered a possibility to go first overall before "falling" to the Rangers at #2. Unfortunately, walks plagued him throughout his first couple of seasons in the minors and landed him on the developmental list, as the Rangers hoped this would help him clean up his mechanics and he would re-discover the front of the rotation potential he showed.
Something clicked for Leiter this offseason, dominating spring and AAA with a much lower walk rate and making his long-anticipated debut against the Tigers in Detroit. Leiter's debut was a mixed bag. He struck out the first batter of his career on three pitches in a strong first frame, struggled in the second inning (4 ER on 30+ pitches), and bounced back with an 8-pitch third inning before his day finished in the fourth after a Taveres misplay cost him three more runs.
On the day, Leiter finished with a stat line of 3.2IP, 8H, 7ER, 3BB, 3K on 85 pitches. On paper, this is a bad stat line. Take away the three runs and the line is a better but still not good 4IP 4ER. It's also important to note that his command/control issues are still there. In the first inning, his misses would be considered good misses--competitive pitches that hitters either didn't swing at or fouled off. In the second and fourth innings, he was missing his spots badly, leading to more hitter-friendly counts the Tiger hitters could hone in on specific pitches and do damage.
Hitter Power rankings
This is our first hitter power rankings of the year. It's important to note that for this power ranking, we are only looking at what hitters have done so far this year results-wise. Luck and a hitter's process are important for long-term projections, but for now, that's a non-factor. The only requirement is that the hitters have to have 70 PA to qualify, and we're ranking by OPS.
Who on the list surprises you?
1. Marcell Ozuna, ATL
18G, 81PA, 26H, 8HR, 24RBI, .351/.407/.716, 1.124 OPS
2. Jose Altuve, HOU
21G, 96PA, 32H, 5HR, 7RBI, .377/.448/.647, 1.095 OPS
3. Mookie Betts, LAD
22G, 105PA, 31H, 6HR, 18RBI, .352/.457OBP/.636, 1.094 OPS
4. Juan Soto, NYY
20G, 94PA, 26H, 5HR, 20RBI, .347/.468/.600, 1.068 OPS
5. Michael Busch, CHC
18G, 70PA, 19H, 6HR, 13RBI, .317/.400/.667, 1.067 OPS
6. William Contreras, MIL
18G, 84PA, 26H, 4HR, 19RBI, .361/.441/.597, 1.038 OPS
7. Shohei Ohtani, LAD
22G, 101PA, 32H, 4HR, 11RBI, .356/.400/.622, 1.022 OPS
8. Jesse Winker, WAS
18G, 72PA, 20H, 2HR, 6RBI, .345/.458/.552, 1.010 OPS
9. Justin Turner, TOR
18G, 70PA, 20H, 2HR, 11RBI, .345/.429/.569, .998 OPS
10. Ketel Marte, ARZ
21G, 97PA, 30H, 5HR, 12RBI, .345/.392/.598, .990 OPS
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