Monday, April 1, 2024

Dugout Debrief: Opening Weekend


Happy Monday!  Opening weekend has come and gone and fans everywhere are (over?)reacting to the small sample size we've seen so far.  We've got a long season ahead of us and plenty of baseball to watch this week so let's dive into this edition of the dugout debrief, starting with a must-have change to the sport followed by some quick hitters.

Umpire Problems

Over the past two offseasons, we've seen the MLB make plenty of changes to try to increase the watchability of our great game.  They've increased the base size and limited "disengages" to encourage stolen bases.  They've restricted shifts to help players show off their athleticism on defense while increasing hits for lefties, and even added a pitch clock to increase the general speed of the game.  

The results of these changes have been better than the MLB could've expected.  Games are faster and much more action-packed, but they have yet to address the biggest issue with the gameplay itself: the umpires.  

Umpires have always been a factor in determining baseball games.  Different home plate umpires have different strike zones, some are more pitcher-friendly, some more hitter-friendly, and some are just neutral.  As analytics has advanced, pitchers and hitters have received scouting reports on each umpire's tendencies, and adjusted their approaches that day accordingly.

For example, if the home plate umpire is known to call fewer inside strikes to right-handed hitters, right-handed hitters would know they could lay off tough borderline strikes on the inside part of the plate because the Umpire would probably call it a ball.  Additionally, if a pitcher noticed the umpire giving them a borderline strike call, they would continue to attack that part of the zone knowing they would either get a called strike or force the hitter to swing at a pitch they either don't want to swing at or can't do damage with. 


This game within the game is intriguing at times but overall has become too big of a story, with umpires consistently costing teams games with bad calls.  It's only April and some fanbases are already fed up with umpires missing easy calls.  Take this pitch from Max Fried, a clear strike to everyone watching except the most important person, home plate umpire Bruce Deckmen, who called it a ball. Sure the Braves won the game but this "ball" ended up extending the inning and allowed the Phillies to score runs they shouldn't have.

These games are only in March, but imagine this cost a fringe wildcard team a game in September causing them to miss the playoffs?  What if it cost a team the division?

The MLB has spent years working on an automatic ball strike (ABS) system, and it's mind-blowing they aren't taking more urgency in implementing this system at the major league level.  Not only does the ABS prevent teams and fans from feeling like they got screwed out of a game, but also will lead to hitters getting more pitches to drive as they no longer have to worry about a ball being called a strike.  

The game has become so much more entertaining over the last year, but it's time that MLB makes another sweeping change and brings in the ABS to take the game to the next level.

Quick Hitters

Let's go over some of the smaller trends and takeaways from the weekend in the quick hitters section!

Mariners Three-Headed Monster: It's an easy argument to claim the Mariners have the best rotation in baseball, led by their three-headed monster of Cy Young Candidates.  The Red Sox had the pleasure of facing off against Luis Castillo, George Kirby, and Logan Gilbert to start their season, and it's safe to say they're looking forward to facing some easier pitchers in the coming days.  Overall, the three combined for 18.2IP, 12H, 5R, 5BBs, and 21Ks for an ERA of 2.41 and WHIP under 1.00.


Astros Home Woes: Going back to last year's ALDS, the Astros have now lost 9 consecutive home games after this weekend's four-game sweep by the Yankees.  It's still extremely early but it's concerning to see from a team that's set themselves as the standard across the sport over the past 6 years.  

Juan Soto Effect: Juan Soto has established himself already as one of the best hitters in the league at only the age of 26, but he continued his torment of the Astros this weekend.  Soto was the biggest contributor in three of the Yankee's four wins this weekend, throwing out the game-tying run in the ninth inning of game 1, hitting the go-ahead home run in game three, and driving in the winning run against All-Star Josh Hader in game four.  Soto finished the weekend with a comical stat line of .529/.600/.765 for an OPS of 1.365. 


New Giants paying off: The Giant's offseason was overshadowed by the rest of the craziness of the division (i.e. Dodger's billion-dollar offseason, DBack's shrewd signings), but they're entering this season with three new players in the top four of their lineup.  So far, it's looking like money well spent, as Jung Hoo Lee and Matt Chapman have been key contributors in their wins against the Padres.  

Yoshinobu Yamamoto's bounce back: After a nightmare debut, Yamamoto had a nice bounce back against the Cardinals, throwing 5 scoreless frames while striking out five.

Lourdes "Barry Bonds" Gurriel: There might not be a scarier power threat than Lourdes Gurriel right now.  Against the Rockies, Gurriel went 8/17 with three home runs and two doubles for a slugging percentage of 1.118.  

ICYM

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