The Dugout Dispatch

Monday, December 9, 2024

Mets Land Juan Soto in Historic Deal, Shaking MLB's Landscape

For the second time in two off-seasons, baseball contracts have shattered everyone's expectations. Last year, a 10-year $700 million contract moved Shohei Ohtani from the Los Angeles Angels to their NL Rival Los Angeles Dodgers, shattering what was expected to be a 500 or maybe even a 600m contract

Last night, history repeated itself, with the 26-year-old Juan Soto moving from New York Yankees to the cross-town rival Mets, on a 15-year, $765 million (with the potential to top $800 million) that completely shattered all expectations of a $650-$700m contract.

The Contract

The contract Soto signed with the Mets is exactly what Mets' fans have been dreaming of ever since Steve "Uncle Stevie" Cohen bought the Mets four years ago. Cohen kept upping his offer, knocking other teams out of the bidding until it was him vs Hal Steinbrenner. Eventually, Cohen got him to drop out too, confirming to the rest of the league that if he wants a player, he will get him. Soto now is the proud owner of:

1. The Largest Contract in Sports History ($765m, previously topping Ohtani's $700m contract)

2. The Longest Contract in Baseball History (15 years, topping Fernando Tatis Jr's 14-year deal)

3. The highest AAV in Baseball history ($51m, topping Ohtani's $47m AAV)

Something interesting about the contract that Scott Boras negotiated, is adding a voidable player opt-out for the second time (previously with Gerrit Cole's Yankees contract). Soto can opt out after year 5 of his deal with the Mets (he'll be 31 and could be primed for another big contract), but the Mets can negate that opt-out by adding an extra 4m a year to the remaining 10 years.

Essentially, this is a 5-year $255m (51 AAV) followed by a 10-year $550m (55 AAV) built-in extension, totaling $805m over 15 years.

Soto wanted the most money possible on a team that will consistently compete for World Series. The Mets made the NLCS in what was supposed to be a retooling year and offered him the most money. It seems like a no-brainer for him.

The Mets

The Mets made their statement. They tried and failed a few years ago with the big contracts they gave to Scherzer/Verlander as well as with Yamamoto last year. This year, they got their guy.

Adding a 26-year-old, future Hall of Famer would be beneficial to any team. Soto's best years are still ahead of him and there are no questions about his intangibles. He's proven time and again he's clutch, and didn't just survive, but thrived in the New York market. Soto has supreme self-confidence in his abilities (shown when he declined the National's massive 15-year, 440 million extension a few years ago) that will rub off on the young talent in that clubhouse.

For the Mets (and their fans), they've announced themselves as a legitimate threat to the league. If Cohen wants a player, the contract offer won't be the reason he misses them. Additionally, they've finally broken the stigma of being the "little brother" of New York, smashing Hal's offer out of the water while also convincing Soto he has a better chance to win with his squad rather than in the pinstripes he became familiar with (and made the World Series) in 2024.

What's Next?

Soto is a massive addition. That's a 10-fWAR-a-year player coming to Queens pairing up with the NL MVP Runner-Up. However, there are still some holes for the Mets to fill, the biggest being finding an impact righty, as well as shoring up the rotation and bullpen.

The obvious answer to the impact righty question is to keep Pete Alonso home. The Mets currently have vacancies at 2B and 1B, and the two names that would make sense right now are Alex Bregman (sliding himself or Vientos over to 2B) and Pete Alonso. Alonso is a better-power hitter who is beloved by the fans and loves to hit fourth. Bregman is an upgrade defensively over Alonso but doesn't have the impact bat that Pete has.

Bringing back Sean Manaea, who had a strong second half after a mechanical adjustment, would make a lot of sense for the Mets, and he would ideally he'd slide into the number two spot in the rotation. I'd like to see the Mets add a true ace or 1a type of pitcher to fortify the rotation, preferably Corbin Burnes but a trade for Luis Castillo or signing Max Fried would be a great consolation prize. The wild card is Roki Sasaki, who they should be doing everything in their power to sign as well since he'll only cost them a minor-league deal and looks like a future ace.

Bullpen-wise, the Mets were able to salvage their bullpen throughout the season last year and already have big money invested in their closer Edwin Diaz. If they can trade for Devin Williams (who for the money he's being paid could be a steal) they should, but they don't need to invest money in Tanner Scott or Jeff Hoffman, they can bargain shop to solidify their bullpen.

The Yankees

The worst-case scenario for the Yankees has arrived. It doesn't really matter who they lost Soto to, losing Soto in itself was a nightmare. Yankee fans are rightfully upset, they just lost a franchise cornerstone and the heir to Judge when he starts slowing down.

The trade for Soto last season (which was the right move at the time), looks a lot worse now. Mike King established himself as a very good starter and the Padres were able to flip Drew Thorpe for Dylan Cease, who had a top 5 Cy Young finish with them.

Something that won't get the full attention it deserves as well: The Yankees have offered over a billion dollars the past two off-seasons to players that chose other teams over them. Yoshinobu Yamamoto turned down 300m to join the Dodgers for 325m, and now Juan Soto turned down 760m to go to the Mets for potentially 800m. It's a concerning trend that cannot become a pattern for what used to be a destination franchise.

What's Next

This is the (760) million dollar question facing GM Brian Cashman. All of the Yankees' ideal offseason scenarios revolved around resigning Juan Soto. It was sign Juan Soto and improve at first base with Christian Walker. Or sign Juan Soto and improve the rotation by adding in Max Fried/Blake Snell.

Losing Soto officially creates two holes in the outfield in center field and left field, with Aaron Judge presumably moving back to right field. Jasson Dominguez will get every chance to win the centerfield job out of spring training, but left field will either have to be resolved by Jazz Chilsolm (opening up another hole in the infield, more on that in a second), or someone outside the organization like a Teoscar Hernandez, Anthony Santander, or trade target.

In the infield, the Yankees have a hole at second base and first base currently. Jazz can move to either second base, left field, or center field, but doing that would re-create the hole at third base they've been trying to fill for years. The Yankees are high on prospect Caleb Durbin who seems to fill in at second base, but that will be two unproven players (in Durbin and Dominguez) that a team with World Series aspirations will be relying on. First base Christian Walker still makes a ton of sense, but pairing Pete Alonso with Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton could be a nightmare for opposing pitchers.

It wouldn't be surprising to see Cashman pivot his focus from run creation (Juan Soto, Pete Alonso) to run prevention (Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Tanner Scott/Jeff Hoffman). A rotation featuring Gerrit Cole and Corbin Burnes would be the best 1-2 punch in the league by a decent amount and would change their roster construction to be more similar to the Mariners (+ Aaron Judge and others), relying on a dominant pitching staff to help them win games.

Tuesday, December 3, 2024

How the Deferring Dodgers strategy is good for baseball and the latest on the Soto Sweepstakes

What if the key to baseball’s future lies in a strategy that only one team can currently pull off?

As the Winter Meetings approach, the Los Angeles Dodgers bold approach to contracts has helped them set the foundation for a dynasty, potentially redefining how teams approach roster construction in the process.

Meanwhile, the Soto sweepstakes loom large, promising to shape the offseason in dramatic fashion. Let’s dive into why the Dodgers’ new strategy might be good for baseball—and how the Juan Soto saga is playing out so far.

Dodgers Spending Habits

"The Los Angeles Deferrals", "Deferring Dodgers", "Sport Ruiners". These nicknames have been thrown at the Los Angeles Dodgers recently, especially after signing another marquee player to a big contract...with deferred money. While some view this negatively, Andrew Friedman’s strategy is a masterstroke—one that’s not just beneficial for the Dodgers but for baseball as a whole. The best part for Friedman? It might only work for them.

The Dodgers have signed plenty of stars in recent years, persuading them to agree to some form of deferral in the contract. Shohei Ohtani's deal is the most notorious example, deferring 680 million of his $700 million contract to 2034-2043. However, other players such as Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernandez, Blake Snell, Tommy Edman, and Will Smith have also agreed to Deferrals

Why it Works for Players:

The benefits for players are clear:

Tax Advantages: Deferring income allows players to reduce exposure to California's high state taxes
Financial Flexibility: Future earnings from deferred contracts don't reduce players' ability to sign new lucrative deals. For example, if Ohtani signs another contract worth $30 million annually after 2034, he'd earn that $30 million plus the deferred $68 million from the Dodgers, totaling $98 million annually (pre-taxes).

Why it Works for The Dodgers:

From the team's perspective, deferrals provide immediate financial flexibility and extend their championship window. For example, Ohtani only being paid $2 million cash from the Dodgers allowed them to sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto to a historic deal. Additionally:

Luxury Tax Relief: the luxury tax calculation is based on the adjusted average annual value (AAV) of the contract. Ohtani's $700 million/10-year deal has an AAV of $46 million, not $70 million. This $24 million difference could save the dodgers hundreds of millions in taxes over time.
Competitive Advantage: By lowering their luxury tax burden, the Dodgers are able to offer more guaranteed money with lesser tax implications since the payments are spread over a longer period of time than the contract.

One thing that helps the Dodgers is that they are currently the premier destination for most players. They've been a model in terms of player development and team-building. Almost every player can improve with the Dodgers player development staff and will be competing for championships. Now, the Dodgers have found a way to mitigate the biggest con (California Taxes) that come with playing for them, while also giving them more financial flexibility to improve the roster.

Soto Sweepstakes

As of now, five teams have reportedly made formal offers to Juan Soto: the Red Sox, Mets, Yankees, Blue Jays and Dodgers. However, it's unlikely these are their final offers. Soto's decision-making process isn't only about getting a record breaking contract, but also about joining a team poised for perennial World Series contention. In his initial meetings with teams, he reported asked about player development, roster-building plans, and long-term competitiveness among other things.

Red Sox

The Red Sox have significant roster holes to fill, including adding multiple starting pitchers and upgrading at least two infield spots. While their farm system is among the best in baseball, their prospects remain unproven at the MLB level. Adding Soto would help, but their issues may require trades—like one for star lefty Garrett Crochet—to truly compete.

Mets

Even with Frankie Montas signed, the Mets still desperately need starting pitching. They also face uncertainties at first and second base, especially with the potential departure of Pete Alonso. Swapping Soto for Alonso might improve their lineup but wouldn’t close their competitive gap with teams like the Dodgers or Padres.

Yankees

The Yankees seem to be set with starting pitching (even though they could use more), but still have three holes they need to fill. Depending on where Jazz plays, two of left field, second base and third base, as well as first base needs to be addressed this offseason. Additionally the Yankees are losing multiple reliable bullpen arms and will need to bolster their pen.

Blue Jays

The Blue Jays face an uphill battle. Burdened by large contracts for George Springer, Kevin Gausman, and José Berríos, they also need to extend Vladimir Guerrero Jr. If signing Soto means losing Vladdy Jr., it’s hard to see Soto committing to Toronto. They'll also need more from Bichette/have a plan to replace him, as he was terrible in 2024 and probably isn't in the teams long term plans anymore.

Dodgers

If Soto wants to win championships, he should sign with the Dodgers. They have multiple stars locked up for years, just beat him in the Yankees in the World Series, and have the best player development in the sport. However, the Dodgers have so much money on the books and Soto has said he does not want to sign a deferred contract, making his salary a tough fit into the Dodgers payroll. They'll keep doing their due dilligence to see if the market breaks their way, but they probably won't be willing to make the financial commitment required to get Soto's services.

Dark Horse: Phillies

While they haven't made a formal offer yet, the Phillies have had reported interest in Soto. They're a very complete team, with a strong pitching staff and strong lineup. The Phillies could reunite the ex-young Nationals stars Trea Turner, Juan Soto, and Bryce Harper, complimenting them with Kyle Schwarber, JT Realmuto, and others. The front office has been aggressive in past years and they might be willing to spend, especially if they're able to move Nick Castellanos to free up some cash and a spot in RF for Soto.

Wednesday, November 20, 2024

Free Agent Breakdown 2024-25: Notes and Updates on the top 25 Players available

Free Agent Breakdown: Top 25 Players for 2024-25

Rankings based on The Athletic's big board.

1. Juan Soto (COF/DH)

At 26, Juan Soto remains a generational offensive talent, often compared to Ted Williams for good reason. He’s coming off the best offensive season of his career, but his defense in right field and baserunning were subpar. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him transition to DH in the near future, depending on his next team.

Expect Soto to land a record-breaking contract—probably starting with a $6—given his proven track record. The Yankees and Mets seem like the primary suitors, but don't sleep on the Red Sox, Phillies, Blue Jays, and Dodgers. With their financial resources, Soto’s one-dimensional skillset becomes an afterthought. For teams with money to spend, he’s worth every penny.

2. Corbin Burnes (SP)

Burnes is the only proven ace on the market. The former Cy Young winner has silenced critics over the last three years by delivering consistent workloads, averaging nearly 200 innings per season. His dominance, highlighted by an eight-inning, one-run gem in his final 2024 start, makes him the top pitcher for teams looking to contend immediately. Look for the Mets to be all over Burnes as they look to land a frontline starter to anchor their rotation. Wouldn't be surprised if the Giants, Blue Jays, and Red Sox are in on him as well.

3. Roki Sasaki (SP)

The Japanese phenom enters free agency as one of the most exciting arms available. Sasaki boasts a triple-digit fastball, a devastating splitter, and ace potential. If his slider carries over, he'll be one of teh best pitchers in the sport and will only cost a team international pool money and a minor league contract due to MLB posting rules, making him a must-target for every team. His upside rivals—or even exceeds—that of recent standout Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

4. Max Fried (SP)

Fried’s elite groundball rate (59.2%) and ability to induce weak contact make him a solid No. 2 starter for a contender. However, he lacks the swing-and-miss dominance of an ace. While he outperformed his xERA in 2024 (3.64 xERA vs. 3.25 ERA), his profile suggests more of a steady, reliable option than a frontline star. He grew up a Dodgers fan and they would be happy to have him, but also wouldn't be surprised if the Orioles, Braves, Mets, Giants, and Cubs take a run at him as well

5. Blake Snell (SP)

If you miss out on Burnes and want a number 1 starter, Snell is your next-best option. Despite battling injuries, Snell finished the season strong for a second consecutive year, boasting a jaw-dropping 34.7% strikeout rate. He’s likely to command a shorter deal with a high AAV, making him an intriguing target for contenders seeking flexibility. When he's healthy and on, he's one of the best pitchers in the game. I'd like to see the Mets take a run at Snell if they miss out on Burnes but also could see the Yankees, Padres, and Dodgers taking a long look.

6. Willy Adames (SS)

Adames quietly had a fantastic 2024, blending power (32 HRs) with newfound speed (21 SBs). One of the league’s better offensive shortstops, he’s also a plus defender at a premium position. While the Brewers would love to keep him, his price tag likely pushes him out of Milwaukee’s plans. He's also said he's willing to move to second or third base if asked. Look for the Dodgers, Blue Jays (if they trade Bichette), and Braves to be highly interested in him.

7. Alex Bregman (3B/2B)

Bregman’s willingness to switch to second base broadens his appeal, where he would instantly become one of the best offensive options at the position. Though his OBP dipped in 2024, his ability to control the strike zone and limit strikeouts while still providing some slug keeps him valuable. Defensively, his below-average arm strength (which would be nullified by a move to second) has not stopped him from being a plus defender. I think the Astros are going to do everything to keep him in Houston.

8. Pete Alonso (1B)

Alonso didn’t quite match his career averages in 2024, but he still provided power (34 HRs) and clutch performances in the Mets’ playoff run. First base is an offensive position, and Alonso remains one of the best right-handed power bats in the entire league. The Mariners and Nationals would both benefit from a proven slugger

9. Anthony Santander (COF)

Santander exploded for 44 home runs in his walk year, solidifying himself as a premier power bat. While his .235 batting average suggests a tradeoff for power, his strikeout and walk rates remain reasonable and he won't be paid to hit a bunch of singles. As a switch-hitter with fantastic pop, he’s a perfect fallback option for teams missing out on Soto. I would love to see him on the Mariners, but also see the Giants, Padres, and Royals (if they want to open the checkbook) being a good fit for him

10. Jack Flaherty (SP)

Flaherty delivered when it mattered most, starting Game 1 of the World Series for the champions. Concerns about his health faded in 2024, as he pitched 162 innings with elite strikeout numbers. Without a qualifying offer attached, the team who signs Flaherty will get a number 2 starter without having to lose a draft pick or pool money. A return to the Dodgers would probably be his top choice, but the Tigers, Orioles, Cardinals and many other teams should be looking to acquire his services

11. Teoscar Hernández (COF)

Hernández rebounded with a strong offensive year, including a .840 OPS and 33 home runs. His bat was crucial to the Dodgers’ playoff success, and his right-handed power complements their lefty heavy stars. While his defense is below average, his bat should make him a priority for any power-needy contender. The Dodgers should reward him with a long term contract, but the Yankees, Mariners, Giants, Royals, and Guardians are intriguing options as well.

12. Sean Manaea (SP)

A midseason mechanical adjustment turned Manaea into the Mets’ best pitcher down the stretch. His crossfire delivery, reminiscent of Chris Sale, makes him especially effective against lefties. At 32, he’s more of a mid-rotation option but could have No. 2 upside if his mechanics continue to shine.

13. Nathan Eovaldi (SP)

Eovaldi enters free agency at 35, looking for a shorter deal. Though not a frontline starter anymore, he’s been a steady presence for the Rangers over the past two seasons. He profiles as a No. 3 starter on a competitive team.

14. Yusei Kikuchi (SP)

Kikuchi impressed after being traded to the Astros at the deadline, posting a 2.70 ERA and a career-best 3.07 FIP over 60 innings. His WHIP also dipped below 1. At 33, Kikuchi won’t demand a long-term deal, making him a great target for teams seeking a No. 2 or 3 starter with upside. A return to the Astros makes a lotta sense for both parties

15. Christian Walker (1B)

Walker offers a mix of power and defense, making him a more cost-effective alternative to Alonso. An elite glove at first base and consistent power production (20+ HRs for four straight seasons) ensure he’ll draw plenty of interest. Wouldn't be surprised if he signs before Alonso since he's a shorter (and cheaper) commitment.

16. Ha-Seong Kim (SS/2B/3B)

Kim’s defensive versatility and elite strike zone control make him an ideal role player for contenders. While his bat isn’t flashy, his glove and consistency could be a great fit for teams like the Dodgers if they miss on Adames.

17. Jurickson Profar (COF)

Profar broke out in 2024, posting an OPS over 100 points higher than his career average. Though his defense and baserunning are average at best, his newfound offensive prowess makes him a worthy gamble as a middle-order bat.

18. Gleyber Torres (2B)

Despite a rough first half, Torres found his groove after the all star break and throughout the playoffs. Though inconsistent on defense and the basepaths, his offensive upside makes him one of the better-hitting second basemen in the sport. At 28 years old, he could be the steal of Free Agency.

19. Tanner Scott (RP)

Scott emerged as the best reliever available at the trade deadline and enters the offseason as the best arm available. Traded for a significant return at the deadline, his elite fastball and high-leverage experience make him a premium bullpen arm. At just 30, he’s young enough to anchor a bullpen for the next several seasons before his fastball stats to fade.

20. Shane Bieber (SP)

Bieber was injured after just 12 (shutout) innings in 2024 and will miss most of 2025. His velocity has been dipping for a while now, but the ex-Cy Young winner still showed flashes of brilliance in limited action. Expect him to sign a short-term, incentive-laden deal as teams bet on his recovery.

21. Walker Buehler (SP)

Similar to Bieber, Buehler’s health adds uncertainty to his market. He struggled in 2024 but flashed his potential during the postseason. His future might be in the bullpen as a fireman if it'll keep him healthier. Pre-injuries, Buehler looked like a Cy Young contender and hopefully he can get close to that level again.

22. Tyler O’Neill (COF)

When healthy, O’Neill is an impact right-handed bat. In just 113 games for the Red Sox in 2024, he smashed 31 home runs, showcasing his immense power potential. However, durability remains a concern, as he has struggled to stay on the field throughout his career. Look for teams who miss out on Teoscar Hernadez/Santander to look at O'Neill.

23. Luis Severino (SP)

Severino rebounded in 2024, leading the Mets' rotation with a 3.91 ERA after two injury-riddled seasons. While he lacks ace-level dominance, he’s a steady middle-of-the-rotation option with the ability to eat innings. His injury history might hurt his

24. Jeff Hoffman (RP)

Hoffman has quietly become one of the most consistent relievers in baseball. Over the past two seasons, he’s posted ERAs of 2.41 and 2.17, while maintaining elite strikeout and chase rates (96th percentile). He can anchor a bullpen and won't cost as much as Tanner Scott

25. Nick Martinez (SP/RP)

Martinez offers versatility as both a starter and reliever. In 2024, he started 16 games while posting a 3.10 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. His ability to limit walks and hard contact makes him a great fit as a No. 4 starter with upside. Martinez has accepted the Reds qualifying offer, and will make just over $20m this season.

Sunday, October 13, 2024

2024 Championship Series Preview: Money Talks

The stage is set! We’re down to the final four, with three of the four top seeds making it to the final four.

In the American League, the top seeded Yankees and second seed Guardians have lived up to their playoff expectations and are the last two standing. Over in the National League, the Dodgers and Mets are set to clash. For the third consecutive year, a 6-seed has made it to the NLCS (the previous two, the Diamondbacks and Phillies, both advanced to the World Series).

Its been a bad year for stingy owners, with three of the four remaining teams-- the Mets ($317 million), Yankees ($309 million), and Dodgers ($241 million) ranking among the top five payrolls in baseball. The Guardians, on the other hand, come in at just $106 million (23rd), giving them a true underdog feel heading into this round.

NLCS: Dodgers (1) vs Mets (6)

The magical Mets continue their run despite this being a retooling year after eliminating the Phillies in four games. The Mets' pitching rotation remains a strength, with Kodai Senga likely starting Game 1, (possibly followed by David Peterson). Luis Severino will take the ball for Game 2, with Sean Manaea and José Quintana expected to handle Games 3 and 4.

The starters were lights-out against Philadelphia, but concerns remain about the bullpen. Edwin Díaz has thrown a ton of pitches lately and needed these extra rest days, but his recent outings have been a bit shaky. The biggest question facing these Mets is who manager Carlos Mendoza can rely on to get key outs in high-leverage spots,.

The Dodgers, on the other hand, survived a nail-biting series against their new biggest rivals, the Padres. The Dodgers advance on the back of a dominant bullpen performance to shut down San Diego’s offense for the final 24 innings – nearly three full games! Teoscar Hernández carried the offense in the NLDS, but if they want to take down the Mets, Mookie Betts, who posted a scorching .889 OPS, will need to stay hot. Shohei Ohtani struggled in the NLDS, posting a .623 OPS, and they'll need more from him, especially with Freddie Freeman’s ankle still a lingering concern.

The Dodgers' starting pitching remains a concern. The best start from a Dodger in the NLDS, Yamamoto’s Game 5 performance against the Padres where he went five scoreless innings, featured a lot of loud outs. Walker Buehler, their presumable Game 2 starter, was shelled for six earned runs over five innings without recording a single strikeout. Dave Roberts will have to be strategic in how he handles his bullpen, especially since they might have to play three straight games without a day off once the series moves to NY.

Despite the Mets’ bullpen issues, their starting rotation has given them quality lenth, and their magical run doesn't seem to be slowing down. The Dodgers have plenty of offensive firepower and a strong bullpen, but I’m predicting the Mets pull this one off in six games. Mets in 6.

ALCS: Yankees (1) vs Guardians (6)

In the American League, the Yankees and Guardians square off in a battle of the top two seeds.The Yankees made it past the Royals in four games, though they benefited from a questionable replay in Game 1. Regardless, they were the better team and their bullpen was untouchable throughout the ALDS, not allowing a single earned run. Giancarlo Stanton’s bat has come alive at just the right time, continuing his historic postseason form, while Aaron Judge was relatively quiet. If the Yankees want to advance, they’ll need Judge to return to his regular season MVP-caliber level.

The biggest question for New York is their starting pitching. Gerrit Cole is a rock at the top of the rotation, and Clarke Schmidt should be able to give them four to five solid innings. However, Carlos Rodón’s performance is crucial. He’ll need to show more of what he displayed in the first inning of Game 2, rather than the rough fourth inning that followed. The Yankees have arguably their best team since 2017, but they’ll be up against the best bullpen in baseball.

The Guardians survived a five-game series against the Tigers, thanks in large part to their bullpen and some timely hitting. Tanner Bibee remains their only reliable starter, which puts even more pressure on their elite bullpen. Offensively, Lane Thomas’s grand slam off Tarik Skubal in Game 5 was the turning point, but Cleveland will need players like Steven Kwan and David Fry to remain productive if they want to break through against New York’s arms. The Yankees have a history of avoiding José Ramírez, and they’ll likely continue this strategy after shutting down Bobby Witt Jr in the ALDS.

While Cleveland’s bullpen is better than everyone else's, the Yankees simply have the better roster on paper. Their offense has more firepower, and the bullpen is peaking at the right time. The Guardians’ extra game in the ALDS might also leave their arms slightly more fatigued. With that in mind, I’m picking the Yankees to win this series in five games. Yankees in 5.

Saturday, October 5, 2024

2024 Divisional Series Preview: AL Central's Rise and NL Rivalries in the Spotlight

We're one step closer to crowning the 2024 MLB Champions. The wild card round was full of excitement and upsets, setting the stage for an exciting (and surprising?) divisional round.

For the first time in years, the AL Central is shaking off its reputation as the weakest division in the American League. Three of the four remaining AL teams hail from the Central, giving us the potential for an all-central ALCS, a scenario almost no one predicted at the start of the season.

Over in the National League, the matchups are just as enticing, fueled by new and old rivalries. The Padres will head to Los Angeles in hopes of finally toppling the Dodgers, while the Mets and Phillies gear up for a showdown that promises fireworks—not just on the field, but in the stands, where two of baseball's most passionate fanbases will clash.

A five-game series may not have the same unpredictability as the best-of-three Wild Card round, but recent years have shown that anything can happen in October. Let’s dive into each team's biggest Key to Success

American League:

Detroit Tigers: AJ Hinch's Masterclass

Tigers’ manager AJ Hinch has orchestrated one of the most remarkable turnarounds in recent memory. Whether it's strategic in-game decisions or lineup management, Hinch has pushed all the right buttons, getting the most out of a team that, on paper, shouldn't be in the playoffs.

Their ace is arguably the best starter in baseball, but outside of Skubal, nobody on this Tigers roster should scare another team. For Detroit to get past a strong Cleveland team, Hinch must continue his tactical wizardry.

Cleveland Guardians: Get the Ball to the Bullpen

Cleveland boasts the best bullpen in the league, led by the nearly unhittable Emmanuel Clase. With four relievers capable of closing games, (soon-to-be) Manager of the Year Stephen Vogt's job is simple—get the ball to his elite bullpen with a lead and let them attack.

For that to happen, the Guardians’ starters and lineup need to do their part by jumping out to early leads, allowing Vogt to unleash his bullpen aggressively.

Kansas City Royals: Supporting Cast Behind Bobby Witt Jr.

It’s no secret that Bobby Witt Jr. is the heart and soul of the Royals, but if they’re going to beat the Yankees, they’ll need contributions from other hitters. Maikel Garcia’s performance against the Orioles was a bright spot, creating the only run in Game 1, and the return of “The Pasquatch,”, played a pivotal role in the Game 2 victory.

While the Royals’ rotation (and bullpen) has the edge over the Yankees, none of that will matter if the offense doesn’t step up. They can’t afford to rely on Witt Jr. alone.

New York Yankees: Starting Pitching Must Deliver

Gerrit Cole found his stride in September, and the Yankees will need him to continue that form if they want to make a deep playoff run. But beyond Cole, New York’s rotation is riddled with uncertainty. Carlos Rodon has been up and down, and Luis Gil has shown flashes of brilliance mixed with command issues.

The Yankees' bullpen has improved as of late, but no one in the Bronx will feel comfortable if this series comes down to a battle of the bullpens. Boone must manage his rotation wisely to avoid those late-game situations against Kansas City’s strong bullpen.

National League:

Philadelphia Phillies: Can the Pitching Staff Rebound?

Few teams have experienced a more dramatic fall-off in pitching performance than the Phillies. After dominating the first half of the season, Philadelphia’s staff has regressed from the best staff in baseball, to posting the 20th worst ERA in the second half. If they want to avoid an early exit (and painful upset), the pitching needs to return to its early-season form.

New York Mets: Keep the Magic Alive

The Mets have captured the nation’s attention with their wild week. After pulling off a miraculous comeback to clinch a wild card spot on Monday, they followed it up by forcing Devin Williams into the worst outing of his career in a win-or-go-home game against the Brewers.

The Mets’ boast potentially the weakest roster of the remaining NL teams, but that hasn't mattered. There’s something special about this team, and if they can keep the momentum going, they could be a force to be reckoned with.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Yamamoto, Then What?

The Dodgers will ride with their $325m ace, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, in Game 1, and if necessary, Game 5. After him, though, question marks abound. JFlare’s performance has dipped after a stellar start to the season in Detroit, with veterans like Clayton Kershaw and Tyler Glasnow unavailable due to injury and no other starters stepping up down the stretch, it'll be interesting to see how the Dodgers approach games 3 and 4.

Could the Dodgers take a risk and start Michael Kopech in a critical Game 3 or 4? Given the uncertainty surrounding the rest of the rotation, it might be their best option.

San Diego Padres: Stay the Course

The Padres have been baseball’s best team since the All-Star break. Even with the loss of Joe Musgrove to Tommy John surgery, San Diego’s pitching staff is the strongest of the remaining playoff teams.

On the offensive side, Fernando Tatis Jr. has rediscovered his form, and his playoff performances have reminded everyone just how dangerous (and electric) he can be. The Padres’ star-studded lineup and balanced pitching give them a strong chance of toppling their division rival, the Dodgers.

Tuesday, August 20, 2024

The "Crapshoot" Playoffs and a 6 IP requirement for Starters?

As we approach the stretch run of the 2024 season, the landscape is more unpredictable than ever. There is no clear-cut "favorite", as the best teams in the league have legitimate flaws, and no team seems destined to reach the elusive 100-win mark. The playoff picture is a chaotic mix of flawed contenders and surging underdogs, setting the stage for what could be one of the most thrilling postseasons in recent memory.

Looking toward the future, the MLB is reportedly considering a major rule change that would redefine the role of the (modern) starting pitcher, potentially altering the strategy and dynamics of the game. In this post, we’ll explore the rollercoaster ride that is this year’s playoff race and delve into the implications of this proposed new rule for starting pitchers.

The 2024 Playoffs: A Battle of Flawed Contenders

As we approach the final stretch of the season, a 100-win season for any team looks like a longshot. I ran a poll in the "Baseball Worldwide" Twitter community asking which team is most likely to reach the century mark in wins this year, with the Orioles leading with 50% of the vote.

However, the most realistic answer is probably no team.

As of 8/19, the Phillies boast the best winning percentage in baseball at .589, which translates to a 95-win pace. Not far behind are the Yankees, Dodgers, and Orioles (.584), who are then closely followed by the Guardians and Brewers (.581). Digging deeper into each team reveals some significant question marks that make a 100-win season even more unlikely.

Team Weaknesses

Yankees and Orioles: Both teams struggle with unreliable bullpens, which could be their Achilles' heel in the postseason when they need to protect small leads against the best lineups in the sport. Additionally, the Yankees seem to have an inability to hit left-handed pitching
Dodgers: While they have a solid top of the roster, their lack of depth in the starting rotation and bottom of the lineup raises concerns
Phillies: The Phillies have had a rough stretch since the All-Star break, posting the third-worst record in the league. Their pitching staff, a strength pre-all-star break, has regressed significantly.
Guardians: Offense wins games, and the Guardians have scored the same number of runs as the Pirates since the All-Star break—a worrying sign for a team hoping to make a deep postseason run.

However, because of this balance at the top of the league, the playoff picture is far from settled, as some teams have come out of the All-Star break red hot and have made the AL West, AL Central, and NL West extremely fun

Hot Teams Making a Push

Diamondbacks: With a 20-8 record since the All-Star break, they are only 4 games back of the Dodgers.
Padres: The Padres have been the best team in baseball post-break, going 20-6 and closing the gap to just 3 games.
Astros: With a 17-10 record, the Astros have pulled 4 games clear of the Mariners in the AL West.
Royals: The Royals have surged to within 3 games of the Guardians with a 17-10 record.
Twins: The Twins are right on the Guardians' heels, just 2 games back after going 16-12 since the break.

The AL East, in particular, is shaping up to be a thrilling finish, with the Orioles and Yankees seemingly begging each other to take the division lead. It might all come down to the last three games of the season between these two storied rivals.

Meanwhile, despite their post-break slump, the Phillies are still 7 games clear in the NL East and will likely cruise to a division title, thanks to their strong first half.

Overall Records as of 8/20

A New Starting Pitcher Requirement: Game-Changer or Misstep?

Last week, reports emerged that MLB is considering a rule change that would require starting pitchers to pitch at least 6 innings with some exceptions. The exceptions are:

The starter throws 100 pitches.
He gives up four or more earned runs.
He gets injured (with a required Injured List stint to avoid manipulation).

This proposal aims to bring more value back to the starting pitcher role. In an era where it's rare to see a starter go beyond five innings, this rule aims to bring back the value of the starting pitcher.

Impact on Pitcher Training

If implemented, this rule would likely change how pitchers train and prepare. Rather than focusing solely on maximizing strikeouts, pitchers would need to balance effectiveness with the ability to navigate the opposing lineup three or more times. This could lead to a resurgence in the value of pitching to soft contact and command over pure velocity.

Market Value of 2-4 Starters

The market value for solid 2-4 starters would likely skyrocket under this new rule. While aces like Gerrit Cole, Corbin Burnes, and Justin Verlander are already highly valued, pitchers who can consistently deliver quality 6-inning starts would become even more coveted as teams would no longer be able to rely as heavily on elite bullpen arms to cover half the game.

Issues with the Proposed Exceptions

While the idea is intriguing, the proposed exceptions need some refining.

100 Pitches: The 100-pitch limit is arbitrary and doesn't account for a pitcher's condition. Advanced metrics now allow us to better assess when a pitcher is tiring, such as changes in arm angle or stride length. This fixed number could be problematic, especially for the start of the season or for pitchers returning from injury who are still building up their stamina.
Four or More Earned Runs: This exception seems reasonable at first glance, but could lead to unintended consequences. For example, a pitcher who unravels after a couple of errors might still be forced to keep pitching, even though the game is slipping away. Moreover, down the stretch, if a team is facing an opposing ace, they might prefer a solid 5-inning, 3-run performance from their 5th starter. With this rule, they could be forced to take a chance on that starter facing the lineup for a third or fourth time, risking the game being pushed out of reach.
Injury Concerns: The injury exception is also problematic. Often, pitchers are removed as a precaution to avoid more severe injuries. Under this rule, pitchers might downplay their injuries to avoid an IL stint, potentially leading to worse outcomes. Additionally, minor issues like blisters, which can severely impact a pitcher's effectiveness, wouldn't qualify for an early exit, possibly leading to more runs and a forced removal under the earned runs rule.

Tuesday, August 13, 2024

8/13 Mound Visit: Merrill's Stellar Season, Snell's Resurgence, Caminero's Call Up

The Mound visit is back! We're halfway through the dog days of August and the league is wide open. Some teams are clawing to stay in the playoff/division race while others have an eye to the future. Let's take a deeper dive into three players to watch down the stretch, starting with an unsung rookie sensation, followed by a Cy Young resurgence before finishing with a quick breakdown of a top prospect's return.

Jackson Merrill's Stellar Season

Rookie Jackson Merrill has been quietly putting together a phenomenal season for the Padres. The former shortstop-turned-center fielder has posted some impressive numbers: a 3.4 fWAR, 125 wRC+, and a solid .289/.321/.479 slash line, good for a .800 OPS.

Despite these stellar statistics and late-game heroics, Merrill has flown somewhat under the radar, partly due to the historical dominance of ROY favorite Paul Skenes and partly due to playing for a West Coast team.

As impressive as Merrill has been, a closer look at his Baseball Savant metrics suggests we've yet to see his best. Merrill ranks in the 87th percentile for xwOBA, 94th in xBA, and 91st in xSLG (all higher than his current stats), indicating some positive regression may be on the horizon.

As impressive as Merrill's been offensively, his defense has been even more impressive. Despite only playing five games in the outfield in his entire career, he's showcased elite defense in center field with 5 Outs Above Average (91st percentile) and ranks in the 84th percentile for overall fielding run value. Merrill is truly a force in all aspects of the game, as he is in the 98th percentile of Baseball Savant's baserunning Run-Value metric, showcasing the completeness of his game.

Merrill is also only just 21 years old and still has room for improvement, particularly in his plate discipline. His walk rate sits in the 10th percentile, while his chase rate of 36% is in the bottom 9th percentile. As he refines these aspects of his game, Merrill could develop into one of the most complete players in the league.

Blake Snell: The Second Half Surge

Blake Snell's 2024 season has been a tale of two halves, mirroring his Cy Young-winning campaign from the previous year. After a brutal start that saw him post ERAs of 11.57 in April, 8.59 in May, and 5.79 in June, Snell has found his groove.

July saw Snell post a microscopic 0.75 ERA over 24 innings, followed by an equally impressive 1.27 ERA over 21.1 innings in August. This resurgence isn't just smoke and mirrors; Snell's underlying metrics support his dominance. His FIP in July and August sat at 2.10 and 1.96, respectively, indicating his success is sustainable.

Baseball Savant paints an even more impressive picture of Snell's recent performance:

97th percentile in xERA at 2.61
91st percentile in average exit velocity at 86.5 MPH
98th percentile in hard-hit percentage at 29.1%
98th percentile in whiff percentage at 36.1%
95th percentile in strikeout percentage at 32.7%

As the season enters its final months, Snell appears poised to continue his dominance and potentially set himself up for a big payday come this offseason.

Junior Caminero: The Prodigy Returns

The baseball world is buzzing with the news that Junior Caminero, the #2 prospect in baseball, is returning to the major leagues. After a brief 36-plate appearance stint in 2023, Caminero is back and ready to make his mark.

Quad injuries limited Caminero to just 59 minor league games this season, likely delaying his call-up. However, in 53 games at AAAl, he showed why he's so highly regarded, slashing .276/.331/.498 for an .828 OPS and a 109 wRC+.

Defensively, Caminero has experience across the infield, logging time at third base, shortstop, and second base in the minors, with the majority of his innings coming at the hot corner. He's expected to take over as the everyday third baseman at the major league level, allowing versatile teammate Morel to split time between second base and first base.