The "Crapshoot" Playoffs and a 6 IP requirement for Starters?

As we approach the stretch run of the 2024 season, the landscape is more unpredictable than ever. There is no clear-cut "favorite", as the best teams in the league have legitimate flaws, and no team seems destined to reach the elusive 100-win mark. The playoff picture is a chaotic mix of flawed contenders and surging underdogs, setting the stage for what could be one of the most thrilling postseasons in recent memory. 

Looking toward the future, the MLB is reportedly considering a major rule change that would redefine the role of the (modern) starting pitcher, potentially altering the strategy and dynamics of the game. In this post, we’ll explore the rollercoaster ride that is this year’s playoff race and delve into the implications of this proposed new rule for starting pitchers. 

The 2024 Playoffs: A Battle of Flawed Contenders

As we approach the final stretch of the season, a 100-win season for any team looks like a longshot. I ran a poll in the "Baseball Worldwide" Twitter community asking which team is most likely to reach the century mark in wins this year, with the Orioles leading with 50% of the vote. 

However, the most realistic answer is probably no team.

As of 8/19, the Phillies boast the best winning percentage in baseball at .589, which translates to a 95-win pace. Not far behind are the Yankees, Dodgers, and Orioles (.584), who are then closely followed by the Guardians and Brewers (.581). Digging deeper into each team reveals some significant question marks that make a 100-win season even more unlikely.

Team Weaknesses

• Yankees and Orioles: Both teams struggle with unreliable bullpens, which could be their Achilles' heel in the postseason when they need to protect small leads against the best lineups in the sport.  Additionally, the Yankees seem to have an inability to hit left-handed pitching
• Dodgers: While they have a solid top of the roster, their lack of depth in the starting rotation and bottom of the lineup raises concerns
• Phillies: The Phillies have had a rough stretch since the All-Star break, posting the third-worst record in the league. Their pitching staff, a strength pre-all-star break, has regressed significantly.
• Guardians: Offense wins games, and the Guardians have scored the same number of runs as the Pirates since the All-Star break—a worrying sign for a team hoping to make a deep postseason run.

However, because of this balance at the top of the league, the playoff picture is far from settled, as some teams have come out of the All-Star break red hot and have made the AL West, AL Central, and NL West extremely fun

Hot Teams Making a Push

• Diamondbacks: With a 20-8 record since the All-Star break, they are only 4 games back of the Dodgers.
• Padres: The Padres have been the best team in baseball post-break, going 20-6 and closing the gap to just 3 games.
• Astros: With a 17-10 record, the Astros have pulled 4 games clear of the Mariners in the AL West.
• Royals: The Royals have surged to within 3 games of the Guardians with a 17-10 record.
• Twins: The Twins are right on the Guardians' heels, just 2 games back after going 16-12 since the break.

The AL East, in particular, is shaping up to be a thrilling finish, with the Orioles and Yankees seemingly begging each other to take the division lead. It might all come down to the last three games of the season between these two storied rivals.

Meanwhile, despite their post-break slump, the Phillies are still 7 games clear in the NL East and will likely cruise to a division title, thanks to their strong first half.

Overall Records as of 8/20

A New Starting Pitcher Requirement: Game-Changer or Misstep?

Last week, reports emerged that MLB is considering a rule change that would require starting pitchers to pitch at least 6 innings with some exceptions. The exceptions are:

• The starter throws 100 pitches.
• He gives up four or more earned runs.
• He gets injured (with a required Injured List stint to avoid manipulation).

This proposal aims to bring more value back to the starting pitcher role. In an era where it's rare to see a starter go beyond five innings, this rule aims to bring back the value of the starting pitcher.

Impact on Pitcher Training

If implemented, this rule would likely change how pitchers train and prepare. Rather than focusing solely on maximizing strikeouts, pitchers would need to balance effectiveness with the ability to navigate the opposing lineup three or more times. This could lead to a resurgence in the value of pitching to soft contact and command over pure velocity.

Market Value of 2-4 Starters

The market value for solid 2-4 starters would likely skyrocket under this new rule. While aces like Gerrit Cole, Corbin Burnes, and Justin Verlander are already highly valued, pitchers who can consistently deliver quality 6-inning starts would become even more coveted as teams would no longer be able to rely as heavily on elite bullpen arms to cover half the game.

Issues with the Proposed Exceptions

While the idea is intriguing, the proposed exceptions need some refining.

• 100 Pitches: The 100-pitch limit is arbitrary and doesn't account for a pitcher's condition. Advanced metrics now allow us to better assess when a pitcher is tiring, such as changes in arm angle or stride length. This fixed number could be problematic, especially for the start of the season or for pitchers returning from injury who are still building up their stamina.

• Four or More Earned Runs: This exception seems reasonable at first glance, but could lead to unintended consequences. For example, a pitcher who unravels after a couple of errors might still be forced to keep pitching, even though the game is slipping away. Moreover, down the stretch, if a team is facing an opposing ace, they might prefer a solid 5-inning, 3-run performance from their 5th starter. With this rule, they could be forced to take a chance on that starter facing the lineup for a third or fourth time, risking the game being pushed out of reach.

• Injury Concerns: The injury exception is also problematic. Often, pitchers are removed as a precaution to avoid more severe injuries. Under this rule, pitchers might downplay their injuries to avoid an IL stint, potentially leading to worse outcomes. Additionally, minor issues like blisters, which can severely impact a pitcher's effectiveness, wouldn't qualify for an early exit, possibly leading to more runs and a forced removal under the earned runs rule.

8/13 Mound Visit: Merrill's Stellar Season, Snell's Resurgence, Caminero's Call Up

The Mound visit is back!  We're halfway through the dog days of August and the league is wide open. Some teams are clawing to stay in the playoff/division race while others have an eye to the future. Let's take a deeper dive into three players to watch down the stretch, starting with an unsung rookie sensation, followed by a Cy Young resurgence before finishing with a quick breakdown of a top prospect's return.  

Jackson Merrill's Stellar Season

Rookie Jackson Merrill has been quietly putting together a phenomenal season for the Padres. The former shortstop-turned-center fielder has posted some impressive numbers: a 3.4 fWAR, 125 wRC+, and a solid .289/.321/.479 slash line, good for a .800 OPS.

Despite these stellar statistics and late-game heroics, Merrill has flown somewhat under the radar, partly due to the historical dominance of ROY favorite Paul Skenes and partly due to playing for a West Coast team. 

As impressive as Merrill has been, a closer look at his Baseball Savant metrics suggests we've yet to see his best. Merrill ranks in the 87th percentile for xwOBA, 94th in xBA, and 91st in xSLG (all higher than his current stats), indicating some positive regression may be on the horizon.

As impressive as Merrill's been offensively, his defense has been even more impressive.  Despite only playing five games in the outfield in his entire career, he's showcased elite defense in center field with 5 Outs Above Average (91st percentile) and ranks in the 84th percentile for overall fielding run value. Merrill is truly a force in all aspects of the game, as he is in the 98th percentile of Baseball Savant's baserunning Run-Value metric, showcasing the completeness of his game.

Merrill is also only just 21 years old and still has room for improvement, particularly in his plate discipline. His walk rate sits in the 10th percentile, while his chase rate of 36% is in the bottom 9th percentile. As he refines these aspects of his game, Merrill could develop into one of the most complete players in the league.

Blake Snell: The Second Half Surge

Blake Snell's 2024 season has been a tale of two halves, mirroring his Cy Young-winning campaign from the previous year. After a brutal start that saw him post ERAs of 11.57 in April, 8.59 in May, and 5.79 in June, Snell has found his groove.

July saw Snell post a microscopic 0.75 ERA over 24 innings, followed by an equally impressive 1.27 ERA over 21.1 innings in August. This resurgence isn't just smoke and mirrors; Snell's underlying metrics support his dominance. His FIP in July and August sat at 2.10 and 1.96, respectively, indicating his success is sustainable.

Baseball Savant paints an even more impressive picture of Snell's recent performance:

• 97th percentile in xERA at 2.61
• 91st percentile in average exit velocity at 86.5 MPH
• 98th percentile in hard-hit percentage at 29.1%
• 98th percentile in whiff percentage at 36.1%
• 95th percentile in strikeout percentage at 32.7%

As the season enters its final months, Snell appears poised to continue his dominance and potentially set himself up for a big payday come this offseason.

Junior Caminero: The Prodigy Returns

The baseball world is buzzing with the news that Junior Caminero, the #2 prospect in baseball, is returning to the major leagues. After a brief 36-plate appearance stint in 2023, Caminero is back and ready to make his mark.

Quad injuries limited Caminero to just 59 minor league games this season, likely delaying his call-up. However, in 53 games at  AAAl, he showed why he's so highly regarded, slashing .276/.331/.498 for an .828 OPS and a 109 wRC+.

Defensively, Caminero has experience across the infield, logging time at third base, shortstop, and second base in the minors, with the majority of his innings coming at the hot corner. He's expected to take over as the everyday third baseman at the major league level, allowing versatile teammate Morel to split time between second base and first base.

July team of the Month: Bobby Witt's Hot Summer

The Team of the Month is back in article form! This time I'll be making a lineup of the nine hitters selected and a five-man rotation with a three-person bullpen for the standout pitchers of the month. Let's start with the hitters.

Offense

Outfield

For the first time this season, Aaron Judge won't be featured on the Team of the Month.  That's a testament to how well these three players performed.  In left field will be the A's Lawrence Butler, who found his power stroke (10 HR), and was a key part of the Oakland lineup (23 Runs, 27 RBIs, 2.0 fWAR).  

In the other corner outfield spot is Juan Soto of the New York Yankees, who responded to a slow end of June with a 208 wRC+ across 24 games in July.  

The last spot in the outfield goes to the Rockies' center fielder Brenton Doyle, who not only impressed at the plate (11 HR, 208 wRC+) but also shined defensively, accumulating a 1.5 Fangraphs defensive rating across 25 games.

Infield + DH

Only one player had a better offensive month than A's DH Brent Rooker.  Brent Rooker's power was on another level this month, slugging .828 with 11 HR and a 253 wRC+ for a total of 2.0 fWAR (tied for second most in July).  

At catcher, Seattle's Cal Raleigh dominated on both sides of the batter's box, accumulating a 3.2 Defensive rating while still hitting at a 154 wRC+ clip. 

At first base is Toronto's Vladdy Jr., who continues his phenomenal (and overlooked) bounce-back year.  Vladdy conquered the heat, and slashed .358/.407/.705 for a 200 wRC+ across 25 July games.  

Sliding in next to Vladdy is Arizona's Ketel Marte, who also continued his stand-out season.  Ketel finished the month with 7 HR, 23 RBIs, and a186 wRC+, the best among qualified second basemen.

Marte's teammate, Eugenio Suarez, was the standout third basemen of July, barely edging out Boston's Rafael Devers.  Suarez provided Arizona with plenty of run production in July, driving in 27 runs in only 25 games.  

At shortstop, Gunnar Henderson was finally dethroned. Bobby Witt Jr. was not only the best shortstop in July, but also the best overall player by a wide margin.  BWJ accumulated 2.7 fWAR in July, thanks to a video-game-like slash line (.489/.520/.833), elite defense, and baserunning.  Witt's had a terrific season, it's just been overshadowed by Gunnar Henderson and Aaron Judge.  That is no longer the case, as Witt now leads the league in fWAR (7.5), and is second in bWAR (7.0).

Pitching

For the first time this season, the pitching staff will have a starter for each rotation spot.  Starters are graded on their results (ERA), rather than underlying metrics (FIP).  Pitchers will also be rewarded for throwing more innings or getting out of high-leverage situations.  

George Kirby, one of the Seattles' five-headed monster, had a phenomenal July and is our ace.  Despite a poor win-loss record (1-2), Kirby shoved for the M's this month, starting 6 games while pitching to a 2.21 ERA across 36.2 innings (averaged a quality start). 

Slotting in behind Kirby is AL Cy Young favorite Tarik Skubal, who continues to dominate.  Skubal started 5 games for the Tigers, pitched to a 2.45 ERA over 33 innings, and picked up 3 wins along the way.  

The third spot in the rotation goes to Diamondback Ryne Nelson, who pitched in six games (starting 5) in July.  Nelson--like our 1 and 2--ate innings this month, throwing 37.1 high-quality innings for the DBacks and finished the month with an ERA of 2.41.  

Following Nelson in the rotation is the Padres' Dylan Cease.  Cease continued his bounce-back season with a strong July, starting 6 games (going 4-2) for the Friars, pitching to a 2.35 ERA across 38.1 innings.

The last spot in the rotation goes to Cincinnati Red Hunter Greene.  Greene does not have the innings (27) or starts (4) that the other members of the rotation have, but they should be thankful that's the case.  Hunter Greene was the best pitcher in July, pitching to a minuscule 0.33 ERA, the best mark of any qualified starter by far. Because of the low innings pitched, he gets a ceremonial slap on the wrist and is placed as our 5th starter.

Our three relievers of the month are Cade Smith of the Cleveland Guardians, AJ Puk formerly of the Marlins and now a Diamondback, and Jeff Hoffman of the Phillies.  All three of these relievers led the league in July fWAR at a 0.6. Cade Smith had one bad outing, finishing with an ERA of 1.98 over 13.2 IP (12G), while Puk (12 IP, 11G) and Hoffman (10.2 IP, 10G) had a perfect ERA of 0.00.