The Yankees' Mid-Season Slump: Diving into a World Series Contender's struggles

The New York Yankees, a team that entered the season on a short list of World Series favorites, lived up to the hype early, starting the season with an impressive 50-22 record.  That feels like a completely different time for their fans, as they've fallen off a cliff and now look like the early season White Sox.  

Since June 14th, the Yankees have gone 6-16, failing to win a single series (0-6-1). Let's look into what could've caused this "rut" and what the Yankees can do to right the ship.

The Competition

Even if the Yankees played only the elite teams of the league (Orioles, Phillies, Dodgers etc.), a 5-16 record would still be unacceptable. Over this stretch, the Yankees have faced some tough opponents in the Orioles (1-3) and Braves (1-2) but have also struggled against fringe playoff teams and straight up bad teams. Their record against the Red Sox (2-4), Mets (0-2), Blue Jays (2-2), and Reds (0-3) is not what you would expect from a team that has championship aspirations

Roster Health

Surprisingly, the team's struggles can't be entirely attributed to injuries. While they're missing Giancarlo Stanton, who was having a good year and his abscence is felt, the only other opening day starter thats missing is Anthony Rizzo, whose absence has actually been a net positive thanks to the play of rookie Ben Rice. Let's compare:

Rizzo: 70G, 82 wRC+, -0.4 fWAR, -8.5 Fangraphs Offensive rating, -5.3 Fangraphs Defensive Rating

• .223/.289/.341, 33% HardHit%, 4.1% Barrel% (lowest of his career)

Ben Rice: 18G, 154 wRC+, 0.5 fWAR, 3.6 Fangraphs offensive rating, -0.5 Fangraphs Defensive rating

• .273/.359/.545, 37.8% HardHit%, 17.8% Barrel%

While Rice's numbers are likely unsustainable, he would need to regress significantly to fall to Rizzo's level of production this year.

Offensive Woes

As mentioned above, the only regular player missing time right now is Giancarlo Stanton.  Despite that, the Yankees are running out 7 of their everyday starters, the Yankees' offense has still managed to nosedive over this stretch. They rank 18th in wRC+, 24th in batting average, 15th in OBP, 20th in slugging, and 15th in home runs over this period. These numbers get even more concerning when you factor in Aaron Judge still producing at an MVP level (.313/.345/.627, 7 HR, 12R, 20 RBIs over this timeframe).

Of the struggling starters, the three most egregious are:

1. Anthony Volpe: The young shortstop has been the second-worst at his position, hitting a mere .185/.219/.250 with a 33 wRC+, -7.1 Fangraphs offensive ranking, and -0.2 fWAR. His 4.2% walk rate versus 24% K rate is particularly concerning.
2. DJ LeMahieu: Once a reliable bat, LeMahieu has struggled mightily, posting a 55 wRC+ and hitting more ground balls than ever. His slash line of .197/.275/.246 gives him a -4.0 Fangraphs offensive rating and 0.0 fWAR.
3. Alex Verdugo: The left fielder has been the fourth-worst at his position, with a 67 wRC+ and a .198/.253/.333 slash line, resulting in a -0.1 fWAR and -3.5 Fangraphs offensive ranking.

Outside of these three, Juan Soto is a slump as well but is still able to get on-base at an elite level (over .400 OBP despite a BA below .200), providing value as he hits in front of Judge.  Gleyber Torres has also missed some time over this stretch due to injury but he would be one of the first people to tell you he hasn't been performing to his standards this season.

Pitching Problems

Like the offense, the Yankees pitching has also gone from one of the best units in the league to one of the worst:

• They have the worst ERA in the league at 5.94, a half a run worse than the Rockies, who play half their games at the launching pad known as Coors
• They rank last in FIP (5.17) and HR/9, while also struggling with walks (25th in BB/9).
• They're 3rd in K/9, which makes their poor results even more perplexing.

Outside of Nestor Cortes, the starters have been abysmal and as a unit have the worst ERA in baseball with an ERA of 6.71.

• Luis Gil: Including his dominant start on Sunday night baseball where he looked like the early season version of himself, he still has managed a 7.59 ERA over this period (2nd worst among qualified pitchers).
• Marcus Stroman: 6.43 ERA, seventh-worst among qualified pitchers.
• Carlos Rodon: In 4 starts, he's pitched just 19 IP with a staggering 10.89 ERA, the worst of any starter with over 10 IP.
• Gerrit Cole: Returned from injury and hasn't looked like himself at all.  The Yankees have to hope this is just rust and he will return to the Cy Young form they're used to seeing.

The bullpen as a whole has many issues.  They lack swing-and-miss stuff and have struggled to close out games. "All-Star" closer Clay Holmes has struggled mightily of late, and any Yankee fan will tell you they do not trust him in close games.

Looking Ahead

The Yankees need to hope this is just a massive regression (especially for their pitchers) and that the players mentioned above will return to their average form. They can't overhaul multiple infield positions, the back of their bullpen, and find a frontline starter all at the trade deadline. They need their struggling players like Verdugo, Gleyber Torres, and Volpe to improve offensively. What they should target offensively, is a trade for a corner infielder, as DJ LeMahieu looks to be a replacement level player at best, and a net negative at worst.

On the pitching front, the return of Clarke Schmidt should provide some relief, but the team needs to acquire at least two reliable, high-leverage arms for the bullpen. None of these bullpen additions will matter though, if the starting rotation can't give the offense a chance to win the game by limiting early runs..

Despite this brutal stretch, it'd be foolish to dismiss the Yankees as a World Series contender at this moment.  The starting rotation especially should see some positive regression, and the lineup still boasts Juan Soto and Aaron Judge who are capable of beating teams by themselves.

Additionally, the Yankees will be buyers at the trade deadline and their roster down the stretch will be improved from what is it right now. That being said, the majority of their current issues revolve around players that the Yankees didn't plan to replace, and if those players continue to struggle it could be a repeat of recent history for this historic franchise.