Tuesday, July 16, 2024

Midseason MLB Awards: Evaluating the MVPs, LVPs, Cy Young Contenders, and More at the All-Star Break


The All-Star break isn't just a showcase for the league's top talent; it's also the unofficial midpoint of the MLB season, providing a natural pause for fans, front offices, and players to reflect on the first half and gear up for the crucial stretch run. This evaluation period is also the perfect time to check in on the major awards races and see who's leading the pack.

From MVPs and Cy Young contenders to LVPs and Cy Yucks, let's break down the frontrunners in both the official and unofficial awards categories.

MVP and LVP

American League MVP: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees

Aaron Judge has been on another level. Despite a slow April, he leads the league in home runs, RBIs, OBP, SLG, OPS, and OPS+. His 207 OPS+ is a staggering 33 points higher than his closest competitor and would be a historic mark.  Judge also leads in bWAR (6.4) and fWAR (6.3), making him the clear frontrunner for AL MVP.

Honorable mentions: Gunnar Henderson (BAL), Bobby Witt Jr. (KCR)

American League Least Valuable Player (LVP): Javier Baez, Detroit Tigers

Javier Baez has been atrocious.  Even that might be kind. Any way you evaluate his season, it looks like a complete nightmare, whether using Fangraphs (-1.1 fWAR), Baseball Reference (-1.5 bWAR), or looking at his stat line (.179/.215/.244 slash line and only 1 home run). Baez's contract makes this look even worse, as the Tigers are only in year 3 of Baez's 6-year, $140 million deal.  His OPS+ of 29 highlights how terrible he's been offensively, but "El Mago" and his usually stellar defense has faltered with a -0.1 Fangraphs defensive rating.

Honorable mentions: Bo Bichette (TOR), Gleyber Torres (NYY), Andrew Benintendi (CWS)

National League MVP: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers

This was supposed to be the last year the NL MVP was truly up for grabs, as Ohtani is limited to just DH-ing as he recovers from his second Tommy John surgery.  Instead, Ohtani's offense has reached another level and he is clearly the best offensive player in the sport not named Aaron Judge. Compared to the rest of the NL, he ranks 2nd in batting average, 4th in OBP, 1st in SLG, 1st in OPS, 1st in runs, 1st in home runs, and 3rd in stolen bases. 

Honorable mentions: Elly De La Cruz (CIN), Bryce Harper (PHI), Ketel Marte (ARI)

NL LVP: Kris Bryant, Colorado Rockies

You could easily argue Kris Bryant could "win" his third consecutive NL LVP. In his third season of a 7-year, $182 million contract, Bryant hasn't even played a full season of games for the Rockies (142 games).  This year, Bryant has been limited to only 24 games but has impressively accumulated -0.5 fWAR and -0.6 bWAR, with a disappointing .186/.307/.279 slash line (despite playing half his games at Coors Field)

Honorable mentions: Josh Bell (MIA), Jeff McNeil (NYM)


CY Young and CY Yuck

AL Cy Young: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers

Skubal is living up to the offseason hype that dubbed him a Cy Young favorite this season.  Skubal is currently leading the AL in bWAR (4.5) and ERA while ranking 2nd in fWAR (3.5). He's tied for second in wins (10), 10th in innings pitched, and 3rd in strikeouts. This race should be exciting down the stretch, as there are plenty of other aces close behind Skubal in the race for this award

Honorable mentions: Corbin Burnes (BAL), Seth Lugo (KCR), Tanner Houck (BOS)

Al Cy Yuck: Pablo Lopez, Minnesota Twins

What a nightmare this season has been for Pablo Lopez.  After finishing 7th in Cy Young voting last year and signing a 4-year extension, Lopez has managed to pitch to the worst ERA among qualified AL pitchers, with an ERA of 5.11 over 104 innings.  The advanced stats say he should be due for some positive regression, but as with the Cy Young this is a results-driven award, and his results have not been good.  Lopez is averaging just over 5 innings a start while allowing home runs at the highest rate of his career.

Honorable mentions: Carlos Rodon (NYY), Kevin Gausman (TOR), Griffin Canning (LAA)


NL Cy Young: Zach Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies

Arguably the closest race right now is the NL Cy Young.  There are two neck-and-neck candidates but I'll give the edge to Zach Wheeler. Wheeler has been the best pitcher on baseball's best pitching staff. He's tied for second in the NL with a 2.70 ERA (alongside Chris Sale) but edges him out with slightly more innings pitched. Wheeler ranks 3rd in innings pitched and is tied for 3rd in wins. This race will probably come down to the wire if Chris Sale and Tyler Glasnow stay healthy, and Paul Skenes keeps dominating the way he has since being called up.

Honorable mentions: Chris Sale (ATL), Hunter Greene (CIN), Tyler Glasnow (LAD)

NL Cy Yuck: Patrick Corbin, Washington Nationals

Don't worry Nat fans, Patrick Corbin is finally entering the final year of his 6-year, $140 million contract. He will be going out with the unofficial "NL Cy Yuck Award", as he's struggled mightily this season (just like the last 4), and currently has the worst ERA among NL-qualified pitchers.  Additionally, Corbin ranks last in the NL in WHIP, has the 3rd worst K/9, and 6th worst HR/9. Luckily for the Nats, they're still in the midst of a rebuild, and his poor performance helps them acquire talent by granting them a better draft position.

Honorable mentions: Blake Snell (SFG), Jordan Montgomery (STL), Ryan Feltner (COL)

Rookie of the Year

AL Rookie of the Year: Luis Gil, New York Yankees

Gil has bounced back nicely and has looked like his dominant self in his last two outings after a brutal three-game stretch that cost him his lead on this award.  This is still his award to lose, as he has been the best starter on a playoff contender while his top contender, Mason Miller, is a reliever for the A's.  Colton Cowser has quietly put together a nice season, but he is overshadowed by the other young stars on the Orioles. As long as Gil keeps producing as an above-average starter (not even an elite one), he will bring home this award.

Honorable mentions: Mason Miller (OAK), Colton Cowser (BAL)


NL Rookie of the Year: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates

Skenes has taken the league by storm with a historically dominant start and seems to have only improved with every outing. Skenes is already recognized as one of the top pitchers in the game, and he could even compete for the Cy Young if he continues his stellar performance. The hype surrounding him (including starting the All-Star game) makes him the clear favorite.

Honorable mentions: Joey Ortiz (MIL), Shota Imanaga (CHC), Jackson Merrill (SDP)

Manager of the Year

American League: Stephen Vogt of the Cleveland Guardians is the frontrunner, leading his team to one of the best starts in franchise history despite missing ace Shane Bieber.

Honorable mention: Alex Cora (BOS)

National League: "Philly" Rob Thomson of the Philadelphia Phillies takes the lead, managing the clear best team in baseball and overcoming various injuries to key players like Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, and Bryce Harper.

Honorable mention: Pat Murphy (MIL)

No comments:

Post a Comment

Free Agent Breakdown 2024-25: Notes and Updates on the top 25 Players available

  Free Agent Breakdown: Top 25 Players for 2024-25 Rankings based on The Athletic's big board. 1. Juan Soto (COF/DH) At 26, Juan Soto re...