Trade Deadline Recap, Winners + Losers, and more!

The 2024 MLB trade deadline has passed, leaving baseball fans with plenty to discuss and analyze. What initially promised to be one of the most interesting deadlines in years, with legitimate star power potentially on the move and the AL wide open, ultimately saw less movement than anticipated.

Top names that could have been moved, including Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet, and Luis Robert, all ended up staying put. Despite this, several teams made moves that could shape the remainder of the season and beyond.

American League: A Tight Race Continues

No AL team truly separated themselves from the pack during the deadline. In the AL East, the Baltimore Orioles added several players, though none were real needle-movers. The real additions for them could come from top prospects Jackson Holliday and Coby Mayo, who would've been involved in a trade for Tarik Skubal or Garrett  Crochet. The New York Yankees acquired Jazz Chisholm, who will help them in multiple ways, but their pitching (and pitching depth) remains a massive question mark.

The race for the AL Central didn't change much, as the Guardians and Royals each made a few additions. The Cleveland Guardians added Lane Thomas to bolster their lineup against lefties and added Alex Cobb to provide some pitching depth. The Kansas City Royals fortified their bullpen with Hunter Harvey and Lucas Erceg, and added starting pitching depth with the addition of Michael Lorenzen. Overall the Royals made more significant additions, but the Guardians were the better team heading into the deadline, setting us up for an exciting stretch run.

In the AL West, the Seattle Mariners made a (very) nice move in acquiring Randy Arozarena, though he alone doesn't fix all their offensive issues. To address this, the M's also added veteran Justin Turner, but his declining hard-hit percentage, exit velocity, and barrel rate are concerning, especially in a pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park. The Houston Astros made a bold move to solidify their rotation, giving up significant prospect capital to acquire half a season of Yusei Kikuchi. Given their track record of getting the best out of pitchers (think Justin Verlander's renaissance and Gerrit Cole's emergence), this could look like a fairer deal come October, but until then this is a headscratcher.

National League: Shaping Up for an Exciting Finish

In the NL East, the Philadelphia Phillies improved their bullpen, replacing Seranthony Dominguez and Gregory Soto with Carlos Estevez and Tanner Banks (who can also start if necessary). They also added Austin Hays as another right-handed outfield bat. The New York Mets had an underrated deadline, adding much-needed pitching to complement their potent lineup. 

The NL Central trade deadline was somewhat of a flop. The St. Louis Cardinals probably had the best deadline in the division, but it would have been nice to see the Pittsburgh Pirates go for it, given they still have Paul Skenes and Jared Jones on cheap contracts. The Milwaukee Brewers added some pitching depth but failed to acquire a bat to help replace Christian Yelich's production.

The NL West, however, had a wild deadline and is shaping up to be the most exciting division race. The powerhouse Los Angeles Dodgers salvaged their deadline with the acquisition of Jack Flaherty, potentially solidifying their rotation for the deep playoff run they expect to make. There are some concerns about his medical reports, but if he stays healthy and Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Clayton Kershaw return strong, they could have the best rotation in the NL. They also added Michael Kopech to the bullpen, who could be one of the game's best relievers if he can improve his command.

The Dodger's main competition comes from the bold San Diego Padres, whose player development deserves immense credit. After giving up a plethora of top prospects for stars like Juan Soto, Josh Hader, and Dylan Cease in recent history, they were able to land Jason Adams and Tanner Scott, arguably the two top relievers available. The pitching staff was a strength before, but now they're a nightmare for any opposing lineup.

Winners and Losers

While my immediate reaction was to dub the Dodgers a winner of the deadline and the Blue Jays a loser, I've switched gears.  I was penalizing the Blue Jays for not moving Vladdy Jr., but the haul they got from the Astros is more than enough to keep them out of the loser column.  The Dodgers buzzer-beating trade for Jack Flaherty overshadowed their other moves, and they definitely were not one of the three biggest winners from this year's deadline given the news about his medicals.

Winners:

1. Miami Marlins: The Marlins had an excellent deadline, acquiring substantial hauls from the Padres, Orioles, and Diamondbacks, as well as solid players from the Yankees. They targeted pro-ready (or close to it) position players to complement their young pitching staff, setting themselves up to compete soon and for a while if they can overcome the development issues that have plagued them in recent years. A standout move was their mutually beneficial trade with the Orioles, swapping young pitcher Trevor Rogers for two position prospects (Kyle Stowers, OF, and Connor Norby, IF) who were blocked in Baltimore's system but could play for many teams today.
2. New York Mets: The Mets' lineup was never a concern this season, and despite some slow starts, it has come alive to provide a deadly offense at least six solid hitters deep. They addressed numerous pitching issues at the deadline, and if Edwin Diaz can return to form, they could be a force to be reckoned with in October.
3. Tampa Bay Rays: The Rays did an excellent job overall. They acknowledged their status as a .500 team and capitalized on a massive sellers' market. While the Mariners may have gotten the better end of the Arozarena trade, the Rays were able to shed his payroll, which is crucial for a small-market team. They also did very well in the Jason Adams and Zach Eflin trades, retooling a farm system that has been consistently excellent at maximizing talent.

Losers:

1. New York Yankees: Despite having a season with prime Aaron Judge, prime Gerrit Cole, and their only guaranteed year of Juan Soto, the Yankees only added three players. The Jazz Chisholm move is excellent, providing lefty pull power, speed, and team control. They also acquired Mark Leiter Jr. from the Cubs for almost nothing and added a strikeout artist from the Padres. However, in a year where they should've pushed all the chips in, this doesn't feel like it's enough.  The starting rotation is full of question marks after Luis Gil (who is probably on some sort of innings restriction) and Gerrit Cole (who might be injured again), and the bullpen could've used at least one more middle-inning reliever.
2. Pittsburgh Pirates: With the NL Central up for grabs, the team with two elite young (and cheap) pitchers didn't do enough to help their weak offense. While none of the NL Central teams made many moves, the Pirates could have separated themselves from the pack with one or two more bats.
3. Colorado Rockies and Chicago White Sox: In a seller's market, both these struggling teams failed to capitalize on their tradeable assets. The Rockies should have traded Ryan McMahon, Elias Diaz, and at least one of Cal Quantrill or Austin Gomber. Instead, they only traded two relievers. The White Sox situation was complicated by Garrett Crochet's stance on a potential postseason availability without a contract extension, but they still had a top-shelf tradeable asset in Luis Robert Jr. They also didn't get enough back in the three-team deal sending Kyle Kopech to the Dodgers and Erick Fedde and Tommy Pham to the Cardinals.

The Curious Case of the Chicago Cubs

The Cubs made a surprising move by trading young slugger Christopher Morel and pitching prospects for Isaac Paredes, despite saying they were eyeing moves for the 2025 season and beyond. However, this is a very good move for the Cubs.

Paredes is a significant upgrade over Morel defensively and is a better all-around hitter, though he has less team control. Morel has more power but has struggled to consistently hit at the MLB level, sporting a batting average that hovers around the .200 mark.  Paredes can be penciled into the middle of their lineup for the next few years, surrounded by players like Ian Happ, Dansby Swanson, Nico Horner, and more, creating the best top-of-the-lineup in the NL Central.

Sunday Mound Visit: Power Rankings and the Season Changing Deadline

Welcome back! We're nine days away from one of the most intriguing trade deadlines ever with many "World Series Contenders" desperate to separate themselves from the rest of the pack.  Let's dive into our latest power rankings before breaking down this season-changing deadline.

Power Rankings

1. Philadelphia Phillies: There's a significant gap between the Phillies and everyone else. They're the only team that doesn't necessarily need to make moves at the trade deadline (more on that later).
2. Cleveland Guardians: One of the most surprising teams in baseball, even without Shane Bieber. Steven Kwan has taken a massive step forward, while José Ramírez remains an MVP candidate.
3. Baltimore Orioles: Despite limping into the deadline and nearly getting swept by the struggling Yankees, they still boast top-2 candidates for both the Cy Young and MVP awards.
4. Los Angeles Dodgers: Concerns existed even before the Mookie Betts and Yoshinobu Yamamoto injuries. While they'll return eventually, starting pitching remains a question mark, and the lineup thins out considerably after Home Run Derby champ Teoscar Hernández.
5. New York Yankees: They arguably needed the All-Star break more than anyone after an abysmal past month. Just as they seemed to gain momentum, an unbelievable implosion last Sunday erased all of their momentum.
6. Atlanta Braves: Despite losing key players to injuries, the Braves are still a threat, with Austin Riley and Matt Olson finally playing at the level we expect from them. Chris Sale's resurgence to elite status has helped fill the void left by Spencer Strider's injury.
7. Milwaukee Brewers: A surprise to many, they're clear NL Central favorites even without All-Star closer Devin Williams (who just started a rehab assignment). Willy Adames, Christian Yelich, and William Contreras continue to make significant impacts.
8. Houston Astros: Starting to look like the dominant team we've seen in recent years. José Altuve remains the best offensive second baseman in baseball, and the pitching is finally starting to find its groove.
9. Boston Red Sox: Alex Cora has done a phenomenal job, helping this team play above their talent level. Tanner Houck is a Cy Young candidate, Jarren Duran is quietly one of the best outfielders in baseball, and Rafael Devers looks better than ever at the plate.
10. Seattle Mariners: Julio Rodríguez is finally heating up for an offense that desperately needs consistency. The pitching staff can go toe-to-toe with any in the league on their best days.

Trade Deadline Outlook

This year marks the first time in recent memory there isn't a clear-cut elite team in both leagues. In the NL, the Phillies stand clearly above the rest of the league (and MLB as a whole). 

The American League is wide open. Despite the Guardians' impressive performance, AL Central teams still need to prove they can compete with the AL East and West teams in October. One big move could separate a contender from the pack, whether it's acquiring a pitcher like Garrett Crochet or Tarik Skubal, adding an impact bat like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Pete Alonso, or bolstering the bullpen with flamethrowers like Tanner Scott.

With the addition of the third wildcard, there have been fewer sellers. This year, the race is tighter than ever. In the National League, even the third-worst team (Nationals) is only six games out of the third wild card spot. The only confirmed sellers are the Rockies, Marlins, Athletics, White Sox, who alone don't have enough valuable players for the other 26 teams.  With so few confirmed sellers, teams like the Blue Jays, Rays, Cubs and Mets should consider selling to take advantage of the inflated prices.

The team to watch is Baltimore. They have the deepest farm system (by far) and can acquire any player they want. A package for Crochet and Luis Robert from the White Sox might not even require giving up top prospect Jackson Holliday. Alternatively, they could pursue Tarik Skubal and Colt Keith from the Tigers, though that would likely cost them Holliday and additional prospects.

As the deadline approaches, the stage is set for some potentially landscape-altering moves. Stay tuned as we keep you updated on all the latest developments in what promises to be an exciting race to the playoffs.

Midseason MLB Awards: Evaluating the MVPs, LVPs, Cy Young Contenders, and More at the All-Star Break

The All-Star break isn't just a showcase for the league's top talent; it's also the unofficial midpoint of the MLB season, providing a natural pause for fans, front offices, and players to reflect on the first half and gear up for the crucial stretch run. This evaluation period is also the perfect time to check in on the major awards races and see who's leading the pack.

From MVPs and Cy Young contenders to LVPs and Cy Yucks, let's break down the frontrunners in both the official and unofficial awards categories.

MVP and LVP

American League MVP: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees

Aaron Judge has been on another level. Despite a slow April, he leads the league in home runs, RBIs, OBP, SLG, OPS, and OPS+. His 207 OPS+ is a staggering 33 points higher than his closest competitor and would be a historic mark.  Judge also leads in bWAR (6.4) and fWAR (6.3), making him the clear frontrunner for AL MVP.

Honorable mentions: Gunnar Henderson (BAL), Bobby Witt Jr. (KCR)

American League Least Valuable Player (LVP): Javier Baez, Detroit Tigers

Javier Baez has been atrocious.  Even that might be kind. Any way you evaluate his season, it looks like a complete nightmare, whether using Fangraphs (-1.1 fWAR), Baseball Reference (-1.5 bWAR), or looking at his stat line (.179/.215/.244 slash line and only 1 home run). Baez's contract makes this look even worse, as the Tigers are only in year 3 of Baez's 6-year, $140 million deal.  His OPS+ of 29 highlights how terrible he's been offensively, but "El Mago" and his usually stellar defense has faltered with a -0.1 Fangraphs defensive rating.

Honorable mentions: Bo Bichette (TOR), Gleyber Torres (NYY), Andrew Benintendi (CWS)

National League MVP: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers

This was supposed to be the last year the NL MVP was truly up for grabs, as Ohtani is limited to just DH-ing as he recovers from his second Tommy John surgery.  Instead, Ohtani's offense has reached another level and he is clearly the best offensive player in the sport not named Aaron Judge. Compared to the rest of the NL, he ranks 2nd in batting average, 4th in OBP, 1st in SLG, 1st in OPS, 1st in runs, 1st in home runs, and 3rd in stolen bases. 

Honorable mentions: Elly De La Cruz (CIN), Bryce Harper (PHI), Ketel Marte (ARI)

NL LVP: Kris Bryant, Colorado Rockies

You could easily argue Kris Bryant could "win" his third consecutive NL LVP. In his third season of a 7-year, $182 million contract, Bryant hasn't even played a full season of games for the Rockies (142 games).  This year, Bryant has been limited to only 24 games but has impressively accumulated -0.5 fWAR and -0.6 bWAR, with a disappointing .186/.307/.279 slash line (despite playing half his games at Coors Field)

Honorable mentions: Josh Bell (MIA), Jeff McNeil (NYM)

CY Young and CY Yuck

AL Cy Young: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers

Skubal is living up to the offseason hype that dubbed him a Cy Young favorite this season.  Skubal is currently leading the AL in bWAR (4.5) and ERA while ranking 2nd in fWAR (3.5). He's tied for second in wins (10), 10th in innings pitched, and 3rd in strikeouts. This race should be exciting down the stretch, as there are plenty of other aces close behind Skubal in the race for this award

Honorable mentions: Corbin Burnes (BAL), Seth Lugo (KCR), Tanner Houck (BOS)

Al Cy Yuck: Pablo Lopez, Minnesota Twins

What a nightmare this season has been for Pablo Lopez.  After finishing 7th in Cy Young voting last year and signing a 4-year extension, Lopez has managed to pitch to the worst ERA among qualified AL pitchers, with an ERA of 5.11 over 104 innings.  The advanced stats say he should be due for some positive regression, but as with the Cy Young this is a results-driven award, and his results have not been good.  Lopez is averaging just over 5 innings a start while allowing home runs at the highest rate of his career.

Honorable mentions: Carlos Rodon (NYY), Kevin Gausman (TOR), Griffin Canning (LAA)

NL Cy Young: Zach Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies

Arguably the closest race right now is the NL Cy Young.  There are two neck-and-neck candidates but I'll give the edge to Zach Wheeler. Wheeler has been the best pitcher on baseball's best pitching staff. He's tied for second in the NL with a 2.70 ERA (alongside Chris Sale) but edges him out with slightly more innings pitched. Wheeler ranks 3rd in innings pitched and is tied for 3rd in wins. This race will probably come down to the wire if Chris Sale and Tyler Glasnow stay healthy, and Paul Skenes keeps dominating the way he has since being called up.

Honorable mentions: Chris Sale (ATL), Hunter Greene (CIN), Tyler Glasnow (LAD)

NL Cy Yuck: Patrick Corbin, Washington Nationals

Don't worry Nat fans, Patrick Corbin is finally entering the final year of his 6-year, $140 million contract. He will be going out with the unofficial "NL Cy Yuck Award", as he's struggled mightily this season (just like the last 4), and currently has the worst ERA among NL-qualified pitchers.  Additionally, Corbin ranks last in the NL in WHIP, has the 3rd worst K/9, and 6th worst HR/9. Luckily for the Nats, they're still in the midst of a rebuild, and his poor performance helps them acquire talent by granting them a better draft position.

Honorable mentions: Blake Snell (SFG), Jordan Montgomery (STL), Ryan Feltner (COL)

Rookie of the Year

AL Rookie of the Year: Luis Gil, New York Yankees

Gil has bounced back nicely and has looked like his dominant self in his last two outings after a brutal three-game stretch that cost him his lead on this award.  This is still his award to lose, as he has been the best starter on a playoff contender while his top contender, Mason Miller, is a reliever for the A's.  Colton Cowser has quietly put together a nice season, but he is overshadowed by the other young stars on the Orioles. As long as Gil keeps producing as an above-average starter (not even an elite one), he will bring home this award.

Honorable mentions: Mason Miller (OAK), Colton Cowser (BAL)

NL Rookie of the Year: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates

Skenes has taken the league by storm with a historically dominant start and seems to have only improved with every outing. Skenes is already recognized as one of the top pitchers in the game, and he could even compete for the Cy Young if he continues his stellar performance. The hype surrounding him (including starting the All-Star game) makes him the clear favorite.

Honorable mentions: Joey Ortiz (MIL), Shota Imanaga (CHC), Jackson Merrill (SDP)

Manager of the Year

American League: Stephen Vogt of the Cleveland Guardians is the frontrunner, leading his team to one of the best starts in franchise history despite missing ace Shane Bieber.

Honorable mention: Alex Cora (BOS)

National League: "Philly" Rob Thomson of the Philadelphia Phillies takes the lead, managing the clear best team in baseball and overcoming various injuries to key players like Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, and Bryce Harper.

Honorable mention: Pat Murphy (MIL)

The Yankees' Mid-Season Slump: Diving into a World Series Contender's struggles

The New York Yankees, a team that entered the season on a short list of World Series favorites, lived up to the hype early, starting the season with an impressive 50-22 record.  That feels like a completely different time for their fans, as they've fallen off a cliff and now look like the early season White Sox.  

Since June 14th, the Yankees have gone 6-16, failing to win a single series (0-6-1). Let's look into what could've caused this "rut" and what the Yankees can do to right the ship.

The Competition

Even if the Yankees played only the elite teams of the league (Orioles, Phillies, Dodgers etc.), a 5-16 record would still be unacceptable. Over this stretch, the Yankees have faced some tough opponents in the Orioles (1-3) and Braves (1-2) but have also struggled against fringe playoff teams and straight up bad teams. Their record against the Red Sox (2-4), Mets (0-2), Blue Jays (2-2), and Reds (0-3) is not what you would expect from a team that has championship aspirations

Roster Health

Surprisingly, the team's struggles can't be entirely attributed to injuries. While they're missing Giancarlo Stanton, who was having a good year and his abscence is felt, the only other opening day starter thats missing is Anthony Rizzo, whose absence has actually been a net positive thanks to the play of rookie Ben Rice. Let's compare:

Rizzo: 70G, 82 wRC+, -0.4 fWAR, -8.5 Fangraphs Offensive rating, -5.3 Fangraphs Defensive Rating

• .223/.289/.341, 33% HardHit%, 4.1% Barrel% (lowest of his career)

Ben Rice: 18G, 154 wRC+, 0.5 fWAR, 3.6 Fangraphs offensive rating, -0.5 Fangraphs Defensive rating

• .273/.359/.545, 37.8% HardHit%, 17.8% Barrel%

While Rice's numbers are likely unsustainable, he would need to regress significantly to fall to Rizzo's level of production this year.

Offensive Woes

As mentioned above, the only regular player missing time right now is Giancarlo Stanton.  Despite that, the Yankees are running out 7 of their everyday starters, the Yankees' offense has still managed to nosedive over this stretch. They rank 18th in wRC+, 24th in batting average, 15th in OBP, 20th in slugging, and 15th in home runs over this period. These numbers get even more concerning when you factor in Aaron Judge still producing at an MVP level (.313/.345/.627, 7 HR, 12R, 20 RBIs over this timeframe).

Of the struggling starters, the three most egregious are:

1. Anthony Volpe: The young shortstop has been the second-worst at his position, hitting a mere .185/.219/.250 with a 33 wRC+, -7.1 Fangraphs offensive ranking, and -0.2 fWAR. His 4.2% walk rate versus 24% K rate is particularly concerning.
2. DJ LeMahieu: Once a reliable bat, LeMahieu has struggled mightily, posting a 55 wRC+ and hitting more ground balls than ever. His slash line of .197/.275/.246 gives him a -4.0 Fangraphs offensive rating and 0.0 fWAR.
3. Alex Verdugo: The left fielder has been the fourth-worst at his position, with a 67 wRC+ and a .198/.253/.333 slash line, resulting in a -0.1 fWAR and -3.5 Fangraphs offensive ranking.

Outside of these three, Juan Soto is a slump as well but is still able to get on-base at an elite level (over .400 OBP despite a BA below .200), providing value as he hits in front of Judge.  Gleyber Torres has also missed some time over this stretch due to injury but he would be one of the first people to tell you he hasn't been performing to his standards this season.

Pitching Problems

Like the offense, the Yankees pitching has also gone from one of the best units in the league to one of the worst:

• They have the worst ERA in the league at 5.94, a half a run worse than the Rockies, who play half their games at the launching pad known as Coors
• They rank last in FIP (5.17) and HR/9, while also struggling with walks (25th in BB/9).
• They're 3rd in K/9, which makes their poor results even more perplexing.

Outside of Nestor Cortes, the starters have been abysmal and as a unit have the worst ERA in baseball with an ERA of 6.71.

• Luis Gil: Including his dominant start on Sunday night baseball where he looked like the early season version of himself, he still has managed a 7.59 ERA over this period (2nd worst among qualified pitchers).
• Marcus Stroman: 6.43 ERA, seventh-worst among qualified pitchers.
• Carlos Rodon: In 4 starts, he's pitched just 19 IP with a staggering 10.89 ERA, the worst of any starter with over 10 IP.
• Gerrit Cole: Returned from injury and hasn't looked like himself at all.  The Yankees have to hope this is just rust and he will return to the Cy Young form they're used to seeing.

The bullpen as a whole has many issues.  They lack swing-and-miss stuff and have struggled to close out games. "All-Star" closer Clay Holmes has struggled mightily of late, and any Yankee fan will tell you they do not trust him in close games.

Looking Ahead

The Yankees need to hope this is just a massive regression (especially for their pitchers) and that the players mentioned above will return to their average form. They can't overhaul multiple infield positions, the back of their bullpen, and find a frontline starter all at the trade deadline. They need their struggling players like Verdugo, Gleyber Torres, and Volpe to improve offensively. What they should target offensively, is a trade for a corner infielder, as DJ LeMahieu looks to be a replacement level player at best, and a net negative at worst.

On the pitching front, the return of Clarke Schmidt should provide some relief, but the team needs to acquire at least two reliable, high-leverage arms for the bullpen. None of these bullpen additions will matter though, if the starting rotation can't give the offense a chance to win the game by limiting early runs..

Despite this brutal stretch, it'd be foolish to dismiss the Yankees as a World Series contender at this moment.  The starting rotation especially should see some positive regression, and the lineup still boasts Juan Soto and Aaron Judge who are capable of beating teams by themselves.

Additionally, the Yankees will be buyers at the trade deadline and their roster down the stretch will be improved from what is it right now. That being said, the majority of their current issues revolve around players that the Yankees didn't plan to replace, and if those players continue to struggle it could be a repeat of recent history for this historic franchise.