Friday, March 29, 2024

Dugout Debrief: Opening Day 2024

One of the best days of the year has come and gone.  We've spent roughly 5 months waiting for baseball to return and now we get baseball every day for the next 7 months after opening day kicked off the season yesterday.

After an offseason of impact signings, blockbuster trades, alleged player adjustments, and prospect speculation, we finally saw it all in action.  Here are some of the highlights from yesterday's action-packed days.


Old Faces New Places

Arguably two of the biggest free agent signings and the two biggest offseason trades are providing early returns to their teams.  Shohei Ohtani, despite having to settle for being a one-way player this season, continues to impress in Dodgers blue, going 2-3 with a double, run scored, and a walk, in his home debut.  After terrorizing the Padres pitchers in the Seoul Series, Ohtani continues to be a headache for opposing pitchers, and the Dodgers have to be happy with the early returns of their $700m investment

The Astros deployed their new closer yesterday and he looked worth every penny.  Josh Hader signed a monster 5-year, $95 million deal this offseason to improve an already strong Astros bullpen.  Hader came into the game in the ninth inning and dominated all three Yankee hitters he faced, striking out the side on just 13 pitches.

Speaking of the Yankees, their big move of the offseason was trading for generational talent Juan Soto.  Soto stood out at the plate, working a walk and being a pesky at bat for the Astros pitching staff but surprisingly made his mark in this one with his defense.  Soto gunned down the would-be tying run to save the game for the Yankees in the ninth inning and also contributed at the plate going 1-3 with an RBI and two walks.

Another blockbuster trade acquisition made himself even more beloved by Oriole faithful, as Corbin Burnes dominated in his O's debut.  After allowing a first-inning homer to future HOF Mike Trout, Burnes settled in for a dominant afternoon, allowing no other Angel to reach base while striking out 11 over 6 dominant innings.  


Texas Thrillers

The state of Texas was home to two of the most exciting games yesterday.  As mentioned above the Yankees defeated the Astros thanks to a great defensive play by Juan Soto and Jose Trevino, who applied the tag at home without blocking the plate.  However, the game didn't start very well for the Yankees, as the Astros got to starter Nestor Cortes early, scoring four runs in the first two innings.  Astros starter Framber Valdez didn't have his best stuff but limited the damage, making big pitches when he needed to and allowed only 3ER over 4.2IP despite 6BBs and 5H.  

The Yankees were able to rally against the Astros bullpen to pull ahead 5-4, in part thanks to a bottom-of-the-order that accounted for 3 RBIs and three runs.

The defending champion Rangers hosted the Cubs and their ace Justin Steele in a game that needed extras to decide.  Justin Steele dominated the Rangers early, keeping them off balance with an assortment of fastballs, cutters, sliders, and sweepers before unfortunately leaving due to injury in the 5th after a great defensive play.

In a back-and-forth game, the Rangers were able to take down the Cubs thanks to a monster home run by Adolis Garcia to tie the game in the 6th, and an extremely clutch pinch-hit home run by Travis Jankowski in the 9th after the Cubs retook the lead on a wild pitch in the top half of the frame.

Dodger's Deadly Trio

We touched on Ohtani's success earlier but he's only one part of a three-headed monster that terrorizes opposing pitchers every day.  Mookie Betts looks like he found a way to reach another level after narrowly missing out on his second MVP award last season.  Despite being 31 years old and playing SS full-time for the first time in his professional career, Mookie Betts's offense looks better than ever.  After a Seoul Series where he tormented the Padres, Mookie continued his torrid start to the season going 1-2 with a home run, two walks, and three runs scored.


Freddie Freeman's Seoul Series results aren't anything special, but watching his ABs you could tell the results were more due to bad luck than a bad process.  Freddie gets the pleasure of hitting third in the Dodgers lineup (behind Betts and Ohtani), a spot every hitter in the league should be jealous of, and will have plenty of opportunities to drive in runs this season.  Freddie finished his 2024 state-side debut going 2-3 with a home run, a walk, 3 RBIs, and two runs scored.

Overall, the Dodgers' top three finished yesterday with a ridiculous combined stat line, finishing 5-8 with 6 runs scored, 4 RBIs, 4 walks, and 2 strikeouts as the Dodgers beat the Cardinals 7-1.

Quick Hitters:

Lots of great pitching performances yesterday! We talked about some of these above but here are the top pitching performers from opening day*:
  • Tarik Skubal, DET: 6IP, 3H, 0R, 0BB, 6K
  • Garrett Crochett, CHW: 6IP, 5H, 1ER, 0BB, 8K
  • Jesus Luzardo, MIA: 5IP, 2H, 2ER, 2BB 8K
  • Cole Ragans, KCR: 6IP, 5H, 2ER, 3BB, 9K
  • Pablo Lopez, MIN: 7IP, 4H, 1ER, 0BB, 7K
  • Logan Webb, SFG: 6IP 5H, 2ER, 2BB, 5K
  • Yu Darvish, SDP: 5IP, 5H, 1ER, 1BB, 7K
  • Frankie Montas, CIN: 6IP, 4H, 0R, 0BB, 4K
  • Jose Berrios, TOR: 6IP, 6H, 2ER, 1BB, 6K
  • Tyler Glasnow, LAD: 6IP, 2H, 1ER, 1BB, 5K
  • Corbin Burnes, BAL: 6IP, 1H, 1ER, 0BB, 11K
  • Shane Bieber, CLE: 6IP, 4H, 0R, 1BB, 11K
  • Nathan Eovaldi, TEX: 6IP, 4H, 2R, 2ER, 1BB, 3K
  • Justin Steele, CHC: 4.2IP, 3H, 1ER, 1BB, 6K
    • left injured
* as we get deeper into the season we're going to get stingier with our top performers, but in the spirit of opening day and a bunch of pitchers showing out, we included more than we typically will

Long Seasons Ahead

Unfortunately, it's not all sunshine and rainbows.  Despite it being literally one game, some teams already look like they will be repeating 2023 or worse.  Mike Trout was the only Angels starter to get a hit with his first-inning home run.  The Angels have truly failed miserably and hopefully, he gets the opportunity to play postseason baseball at some point in his career.

The Rockies and A's were outscored by a combined 25 runs.  Both teams only mustered four hits, yes they were facing both the Guardians and Diamondbacks aces, but that's still no excuse to struggle so much.


ICYM:

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Tuesday, March 26, 2024

Doublin' Down: Did Ohtani bet on baseball?


Every gambler has doubled down at least once in their life.  Yesterday, we might've seen another do it during a press conference.

Baseball is potentially facing a bigger scandal than the infamous 2017 Astro's cheating scandal, as the biggest star in baseball history, Shohei Ohtani, allegedly was robbed of $4.5 million by longtime friend and translator Ippei Mizuhara to pay off an illegal gambling debt.  

However, the way the information regarding this situation has come out, and given the security of today's banking systems, that is a very, very hard story to believe and baseball is facing its third major gambling scandal (the Black Sox and Pete Rose) in its long history.

From renounced statements, plot holes, and plenty of speculation, let's go over everything related to this Ohtani situation, starting with the facts and ending with what might happen.


What We Know and the Timeline:

There are a lot of holes in this story and questions that have yet to be answered, so it's easy to get lost going down a rabbit hole.  To prevent this, we're going to start with the facts and timeline, while bringing in some background information where necessary.

The first thing we know (per the Los Angeles Times) is that Ohtani's name was on wire transfers to Mathew Bowyer, who is under federal investigation for being an illegal bookie, for $4.5 million.  After this news broke, long-time translator Ippei Mizuhara did a telephone interview with ESPN Tuesday (allegedly allowed by Ohtani's representatives), stating that Ohtani paid off his gambling debts and that "Shohei had zero involvement in betting."

Shortly after this, Ohtani's representatives renounced Mizuhara's and alleged theft by the translator, accusing Mizuhara of stealing the money from Shohei's account. 

Mizuhara has since addressed the Dodgers before game 2 of the Seoul Series and was fired. The Athletic also reported that Mizuhara recanted this initial statement in an interview after being fired by the Dodgers. 

The MLB opened a formal investigation Friday (almost three full days after the news broke) into the situation and Ohtani did not address the situation until yesterday (3/25) in a 12-minute statement where no questions were taken.  

During Ohtani's statement, he doubled down on the second story, stating that he was unaware of Mizuhara's gambling addiction until the team meeting, did not ever pay an illegal bookie, and has not ever bet on sports. 


What's Missing

Unlike most great stories, this one is full of plotholes.  The first and most obvious one is the difference between the first two statements.  Mizuhara initially states that Ohtani was aware of the situation and willingly paid off the debt.  Not too long after, more of Ohtani's representatives say this isn't true and renounce the story, and Mizuhara later recants his initial interview.

The next weird fact is that the Dodgers allowed Mizuhara to address the team.  Outside of being a (ex?) close friend of their star player, why would a translator being accused of grand larceny not be immediately escorted out of the clubhouse, let alone allowed to address the entire team?


Lastly, $4.5 million doesn't just disappear, and how does Ohtani not notice it?  Despite making a massive amount of money every season (mostly through sponsorships....for now), $4.5 million is a lot of money and if that amount of money disappeared, it would raise flags with at least Ohtani's bank, which would alert him of those funds disappearing from his account. If Ohtani thought he was robbed wouldn't he alert the authorities immediately?

Going a step further, Ohtani or a power of attorney would have had to approve a wire transfer(s) of this magnitude. If Mizuhara was going to rob Ohtani, he would not have been able to move the money in large transactions and would have had to use many repetitive smaller transactions, which would also raise flags with Ohtani's bank for duplicate transactions.  Lastly, why wouldn't Mizuhara at least try to hide the money by transferring it to different accounts, and then wire the money to the bookie from these separate accounts?

After so many holes in this story, coming to a firm opinion is difficult but let's give it a shot anyway.

What Actually Happened?:

Based on the amount transferred to the bookie and that Ohtani's name was on the wire transfer, the original story seems to be the most likely.  Why? Well, we need to look at some external facts and mix them into the story.

Ohtani and Mizuhara were (are?) extremely close.  In Ohtani's contract with the Dodgers, he has the right to opt-out if Mizuhara or certain other employees had their contracts terminated by the Dodgers.  That is the best job security outside of being your own boss that you can get.  Mizuhara also reportedly has had salaries ranging from 300K-500K a year, much higher than the average interpreter salary of $53.6K (both per CBS) and certainly due to his close connection with Ohtani.

Mizuhara also stated that he spends every day with Ohtani and their close relationship has been confirmed on multiple occasions, making it fair to assume Ohtani thought of Mizuhara as his best friend or like a brother.

This crucial factor and all the holes in the "robbery" story told by Ohtani and his representatives make the original story seem like the truth.  His best friend really messed up and Ohtani wanted to help him out.  Unfortunately for Ohtani, bailing out his friend violates both California, Federal, and MLB laws.

California is one of the states that has not legalized Sports betting, and wiring money to an illegal bookie is a federal offense.  Additionally, the MLB doesn't allow players to bet on baseball or in states where sports betting is illegal. 

The best guess here is that Ohtani's attorneys realized that despite his good intentions in helping his friend, Ohtani was still violating all of these laws and rules by wiring the money to the illegal bookie, as it was his name on the wire transfer.  

Due to this, his representatives immediately tried to start doing damage control, renouncing Mizuhara's initial statement and starting this "massive theft" story to protect Ohtani while placing all of the blame on Mizuhara.  This would also explain why Ohtani never alerted the authorities about this "massive theft" as he knew it would risk his friend going to federal prison.

What's going to happen?

Overall, Ohtani is still the MLB's golden goose. By delaying a formal investigation, MLB has already indicated they do not want to punish Ohtani unless they're forced to.  He just brings too many eyes and too much money to the sport. 

Instead of properly investigating this, they will try to sweep this under the rug and keep placing all the blame on Mizuhara, who will probably receive a lifetime ban from the sport while Ohtani potentially faces a fine for an "undisclosed amount".


ICYM:

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Saturday, March 23, 2024

Seoul Series Recap: Yamamoto Yips?


The "first" opening day took place this week, as the Dodgers and Padres met in Seoul South Korea in the Seoul Series, part of MLB's goal to expand the game globally.  Each team took a turn as the home team over the two-game series that kicked off at 6am ET on both days. Coincidentally, both teams won when they were the away team, splitting the series 1-1 and giving each team (and us!) plenty to take away from the short series.  Yamamoto's struggles, Xander and Mookie's strong starts, pitching issues?, all that, and more in this edition of the Dugout Dispatch!


Yamamoto's Yips?

Let's address the (second) biggest storyline of the weekend first.  Yamamoto made his much-anticipated MLB debut in game two of the Seoul Series, and it's safe to say it did not go how he (or the Dodgers) intended it to.  Yamamoto got to hit the showers early, finishing with a stat line of 1 IP, 5ER, 4H, 1BB, and 2Ks (good for an ERA of 45.00) as he only made it through the Padres lineup once. This is now Yamamoto's third consecutive rough outing, but unlike the last two (which was ST) this one counts.  

Yamamoto struggled to throw strikes, especially early in the count.  Of the 43 pitches he threw in his inning of work, Yamamoto only threw 23 for strikes, and most were after falling behind in the count, allowing hitters to lay off pitches on the corner for ones they can drive.  Diving further into the start, the Padres frankly weren't fooled by any pitch Yamamoto was throwing.  Yamamoto, he couldn't locate his trademark rainbow curveball or his splitter.  


Yamamoto has a lot to learn from this start but there are some concerns.  As good command as Yamamoto has on his fastball (which he throws in the upper 90s), it has no run and negligible rise, making it an easy target for MLB hitters who are used to seeing high velocity.  This point was emphasized to Yamamoto on the first pitch of the game when Xander Bogarts smacked a 97mph fastball up the middle for a leadoff single.  When Yamamoto's offspeed stuff isn't working, he could see more starts like this in the future and he and the Dodgers need to find a way to at least limit the damage when he doesn't have his A stuff.  

Nobody expected Yamamoto to recreate the success he had in the NPB, but the Dodgers had to have expected more from the player they made the highest-paid pitcher in baseball history.

Ex-Sox Strong Starts

Once teammates and now division rivals, Xander Bogaerts and Mookie Betts started their 2024 campaigns off strong.  Xander finished the series going 4/9 with one walk, three runs, and three RBIs as the Padres leadoff hitter.  Xander was consistently a tough out and flashed a solid glove at second base, where he'll be playing full-time this season for the first time in his career.  Xander did a great job of setting the tone for a Padres lineup that scored 15 runs in game 2, and it felt like he was hitting the ball hard every single time he was up.

Mookie, the ex-MVP, looked like the best player on a loaded Dodgers lineup.  Betts finished the Seoul Series 6/9 with two walks, no strikeouts, and 7(!!) RBIs from the leadoff spot of the Dodgers lineup.  Betts, like Xander, consistently hit the ball hard, and seemed impossible for the Padres to get out, laying off or fouling close pitches until he got a pitch he could drive.

It's fair to wonder how different the Red Sox would be if they signed these players, but it's looking like Padre and Dodger fans are happy with how this ended up.


Pitching Issues?

To preface this, it's still spring training for 28 other teams, but at times it looked that way for both the Padres and Dodgers pitchers.  

In game 1, the Padres bullpen couldn't protect the lead, with Wandy Peralta, Jhony Brito, and Adrian Morejon struggling to find the zone and allowing the Dodgers to take a late lead.  Padres starter, Yu Darvish, also couldn't make it through 4 innings, thanks to consistently going deep into counts and causing manager Mike Shildt to turn to his bullpen earlier than he would've liked.  

In Game 2, the Padres starter, Joe Musgrove, struggled even more, allowing 5 earned runs on 7 hits over 2.2 innings.  Luckily for Shildt, his offense was able to keep the distance as the Dodgers kept trying to claw back into the game, with Robert Suarez eventually shutting the door with a 4-out save.

On the Dodgers side, we've already covered Yamamoto's struggles but the next three Dodgers pitchers in game 2 combined to allow 5 earned over 5 innings.  Of these three pitchers, the biggest culprit was Michael Grove (2IP, 4R, 3ER) who could be called upon to start this season.  To take this a step further, the Dodgers used seven pitchers in game 2, and only two didn't allow an earned run. Ryan Yarbrough finished with 1.2IP and 1 run (unearned), and Greg Varland retired the only batter he saw on two pitches.

The Dodgers used most of their best bullpen arms in game one, but their rotation is full of young or injury-prone pitchers and their bullpen will have to be better if they want to meet their lofty expectations.


ICYM:

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Wednesday, March 13, 2024

A Rockie Road Ahead: How To Rebuild The Rockies


The Rockies are not in a good spot.  Not only do they share a division with a regular season juggernaut in the Dodgers, but also now they have to worry about the 2023 World Series runner-ups Diamondbacks and their young core for years to come.  To top this all off, the Rockies are coming off their worst season in the Franchise's 30-year history and have a lot more problems than building blocks.  Here's how the Rockies should approach their rebuild!


1. Embrace Power Pitching as an Organizational Philosophy

The Rockies have a unique home-field situation.  Coors Park is at an extremely high altitude, affecting the games uniquely.  The high altitude causes breaking pitches to break less and fly balls to carry more, causing deep flyouts in regular stadiums to find their way into the seats.  To combat this, the Rockies need to embrace power pitching, and ideally power sinkers.

Power pitching relies on high-velocity fastballs and sharp-breaking balls to get plenty of swings and misses.  Typically the downside to power pitching is that the harder a pitch comes in, the harder it's going to come off the bat (i.e. higher exit Velo).  In a stadium like Coors however, the added exit velo isn't that bad a consequence, as most deep flyballs will be a home run anyway and the higher exit velo will just result in homers going from 400-foot shots to 430-foot shots.  Either way, it's still a home run.


The benefit of more whiffs and strikeouts is very straightforward.  A batter can't do damage if they can't hit the ball. Per Baseball Savant, the Rockies' pitching staff was 5% below average in Whiff%, finishing with a 20.9% whiff% as a pitching staff compared to the 25.8% league average.

The Rockies can take this to the next level by targeting pitchers with a power sinker.  Not only would a power sinker lead to higher Whiff rates, but the power sinker has the added benefit of leading to soft grounders as they are extremely difficult to square up.  This added fact negates Coors' offensive effect both by limiting contact, but also by limiting flyballs when contact is made.

2. Embrace Contact Hitting

Like with point one, the Rockies need to embrace an organizational change to their hitting as well.  As a team last season, the Rockies had a higher chase rate, Whiff % than the league average last season (per Baseball Savant).  When the Rockies did make contact, they hit an average amount of fly balls and an above-average amount of line drives compared to the rest of the MLB, allowing them to utilize their home-field advantage more.


As prospects in their system develop, there needs to be an emphasis on not striking out, and putting the ball in the air.  This will allow them to benefit from their unique home-field advantage, as every time they put the ball in the air, good things could happen.  A soft contact pop-up at 29 other stadiums could call in for a bloop single, a long flyout can turn into a home run, and a soft line drive into the gap can go all the way to the wall turning into an extra-base hit.  The Rockies need to embrace their home-field advantage by putting the ball in play more consistently and laying off bad pitches that will lead to weak grounders and swings and misses.

3. Trade Kris Bryant

It's safe to say this contract isn't working out for either party.  The Rockies signed Kris Bryant thinking he could replace Trevor Story's bat in their lineup after winning 74 games in 2021, but injuries have limited him to just 120 games over the first two seasons.  Over these 120 games, Bryant hasn't been the player we grew accustomed to seeing during his time with the Cubs, accumulating -0.6 rWAR over the last two seasons (per Baseball Reference).

Meanwhile, Bryant said he should've been more familiar with the Rockies farm system (per The Athletic), acknowledging the team is still far away from competing.  Bryant, now on the wrong side of 30, probably doesn't want to spend the rest of his career on a massive rebuild.


It's easy to blame injuries for Bryant's struggles, and he could offer some value to a team trying to compete thanks to his ability to play multiple positions at a solid defensive level when healthy.  Bryant still has 5 years and 131m remaining on his current contract, and it would benefit the Rockies to eat some of that money to move him and bring back prospects that fit their new philosophies mentioned above as they look to continue their rebuild.

4. Play the Young Core:

Despite all the issues on the roster, the Rockies do have some solid young talent.  Nolan Jones could be a top 50 player in the MLB this season.  Ezequiel Tovar put up a respectable 2.5 rWAR season in his first full season in the show playing good defense at shortstop.  Drew Romo should make his way to the big league club this season after having a solid 2023 season in AA (and finishing at AAA for a couple of games).  

The Rockies need to keep allowing their young core an opportunity to prove that they can be a cornerstone for this team going forward.  If they show this capability, the Rockies should look to lock them into a long-term contract, buying out their arbitration years at a team-friendly price to give the team flexibility to build around them as they enter their primes.


Friday, March 1, 2024

Dugout Debrief: Spring Training Part 1

The first dugout debrief of 2024 is here!  This is a recurring series recapping some of the notable storylines and trends in the MLB over the past week(ish).  Since it's only Spring Training, this edition will mostly focus on some key players before ending the article with some Quick Hitters.  


Paul Skenes's Perfect Pirate's Debut

The first overall pick in last year's draft put on a Pirates uniform for the first time and made his spring debut this week. Skenes, a top three prospect on most prospect rankings, faced off against the consensus top prospect in baseball Jackson Holliday's Orioles en route to throwing a perfect inning.

Unfortunately for baseball fans, this game wasn't televised but the announcers continued to comment on how hard he was throwing, consistently throwing 100+ MPH.  Expanding on our initial takeaways, Skenes is finding a way to push the hype even higher.  Throwing a perfect inning and having this high velocity this early in camp must be reassuring for the Pirates, who passed on Dylan Crews (2nd overall) for the big righty.


After Skenes was pulled, the announcers consistently questioned and debated if he would start in AA to begin the season.  This would be a blatant mistake for the Pirates.  Skenes is pro-ready and the Pirates seemed to recognize this last season when they shut him down early since he "checked all the boxes."

If Skenes does start in the MLB, there will surely be some rough starts but he could give the Pirates and their fans a glimpse of the frontline starter they've been missing since trading Gerrit Cole away.

Padres' poor start(ers)

The Padres's opening day starter, Joe Musgrove, threw the first pitch of spring training this season and has struggled ever since.  After not recording an out in his spring debut, Musgrove struggled against a Guardians team that did not start star player Jose Ramirez, allowing 4 runs over 1.2 IP. 

On the offensive side, Fernando Tatis Jr. (who may be a certain company's MVP pick) has yet to record a hit.  As with all these stats, it's still early but for a 34.1m dollar man with double-digit ABs, you'd expect him to have gotten a hit at this point.  This issue is compounded when the other 300m man, Manny Machado, is hitting under .200 as well. 

If the Padres want to make fans forget about last season's massive disappointment, they're off to a really rough start.  Even if it is only Spring Training.


New generation of Nat's

When the Nats traded Trea Turner, Max Scherzer, and Juan Soto, they waved the white flag on their core and started a rebuild.  Well, that rebuild might be coming along faster than expected.  The Nats secured two very good packages of young talent, with the Trea Turner/Max Scherzer package returning their 2023 All Star Josiah Gray, and the Juan Soto trade returning almost all of the Padres' top prospects in McKenzie Gore, CJ Abrams, James Wood, and Robert Hassell III.

Well......those prospects might have arrived.  Again, it's early but McKenzie Gore now has pitched twice for 5IP, 1 run, 2 hits, and 7Ks.  CJ Abrams, who stole 45 bases last season, is now 4-9 with 1 homerun.  Both of these strong starts are overshadowed by consensus top-25 prospect James Wood, who is 7-14 with 3 home runs, 3 walks, and only 2 strikeouts. 

The 6'6 Wood will probably need a little bit more time in the minors, but he is expected to join this Nat's team sometime this season and if he keeps performing at this level for the rest of the spring, that time will come sooner rather than later.


Quick Hitters

- Juan Soto has been as advertised this spring, hitting a monster home run in his debut and a deep double in his second appearance

- Dark horse Cy Young candidate Cole Ragans struck out 5 in two innings in his spring debut and followed that up with 3ks over 3 innings in his second appearance.  Finished his second appearance with a strike rate of 67.5% (27 strikes in 40 pitches), a great sign for a pitcher who struggled with walks in the past

- Mike Trout has struggled so far this spring, only having 1 hit in over 10 ABs so far

- The billion-dollar duo made their spring debuts and were as advertised, with Ohtani hitting a homerun and Yamamoto striking out 3 over two scoreless innings.


ICYM:

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