Welcome back to the dugout dispatch! Last week we went over the picks for the MVP awards and this week, we're focusing on the the award for the best pitchers on the planet: the Cy Young award. All stats are from Baseball Reference unless stated otherwise!
Last year's race wasn't the most exciting. In the NL, Blake Snell dominated down the stretch en route to a league-best 2.43 ERA despite leading the league in BB/9. In the AL, Gerrit Cole dominated the race all year, finally securing his first CY Young of his career after many top 5 and top 3 finishes.
This year's race however, appears to be wide open and begs the question: Who will take award the most prestigious pitching awards this year? From favorites to dark horses, check out our official Cy Young predictions!
Note: Despite Jordan Montgomery and reigning NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell still remaining unsigned, I don't see either winning the award this year. Snell benefited from pitching in a pitcher-friendly park and his advanced metrics are a bit scary, while Montgomery still has to prove he can be that frontline starter for more than one season.
American League:
The Pick: Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees (+500 on most books)
The big question for Yankee Ace and best pitcher in baseball, Gerrit Cole, is how will he top last year's unanimous Cy Young season? Every off-season Cole identifies one thing he wants to improve upon. Last season it was pitching inside more and adding a cutter that he used to dominate the second half of the season. As a pitching fan, it's exciting to see how one of the best minds in the sport tries to reach another level. Here are some other reasons why he can win the Cy Young
- Still expected to be the best pitcher in baseball this year
- Still a tier above all other pitchers in the MLB (not just AL) at least
- Will have a lot more offensive support and 20 wins should be expected (wins matter to some extent)
- Pitches every five days with the intent to finish every game started
- Accumulates counting stats such as IP and K's that voters put a lot of stake in
The Runner-Up: Corbin Burnes, Baltimore Orioles (+1000 on most books)
The first move of the Orioles' new ownership was a massive one as they acquired ex-Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes without giving up any of their S-tier prospects. Burnes will be called upon to lead a young Oriole's pitching staff that desperately needed an established ace and here are some other reasons why he can win the Cy Young:
- Moves from an offensively limited Brewers to a strong Orioles' offense which should lead to an uptick in wins
- Baltimore is a very pitcher-friendly park thanks to their endless left field, which will help keep Burne's ERA and FIP down
- Baltimore only has him for this year and won't have him on any sort of innings limit and should have him pitch every 5 days (unlike the Brewers who used a 6-man rotation)
The Dark Horse: Cole Ragans, Kansas City Royals (+2800 on DraftKings)
Ragans really emerged for the Royals in the second half last season and will be their ace in 2024. The lefty relies on a deadly Fastball/Changeup combo and mixes in a slider, cutter, and curveball as well. Walks were a bit of a problem but Ragans was above the 80th percentile in K Rate, xBA, Fastball Velo, Whiff Percentage, and xBA (per Baseball Savant). If Ragans can build off this strong second half and control the walks, he could find his way into the conversation for this award and could be the first Royals Cy Young winner since Zack Greinke.
Honorable Mentions: Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays
National League:
The Pick: Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves (+550 on most books)
Strider and his tight pants have been a nightmare for opposing hitters. His deadly fastball/slider combo is reminiscent of a young DeGrom and he finished top 5 in Cy Young voting last year en route to leading the league in Wins (20) and Strikeouts (281). Lastly, Strider will be the Ace of a Braves team that is very easy to call the best team in baseball. Here are some other reasons why I think he will win the NL Cy Young:
- Advanced Stats love him thanks to his high strikeout-to-walk ratio (4.8:1) and low Homerun rate (1.1 HR/9)
- After disappointing playoffs (shown by his outburst) he will want to be a workhorse this year and set the tone every five days
- We could see him approach Gerrit Cole's volume and reach 200 IP this season
- Run Support will never be an issue as long as he pitches for this Braves team --> 20 20-win season should be expected again
The Runner-Up: Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks (+1400)
Gallen has been a very nice addition for the Diamondbacks and has finished top 5 in Cy Young voting the previous two seasons. The Ace of the World Series runner-ups has gotten better each of the past three seasons while pitching in an extremely tough division but still has struck out more than one batter per inning and allowed less than one homer per game. Gallen loves to go deep in games and has pitched almost 400 IP over the past two seasons. Some other reasons he could bring home the Cy Young are:
- Ace on a good team that will go deep into games (should top 200 IP again this season)
- Finished third last season, any small step forward could be enough to push him above the rest of the field and win the Cy Young
- Effective against both lefties and righties thanks to extremely good change-up
The Dark Horse: Justin Steele, Chicago Cubs (+1600)
It is fair to wonder why the dark horse is only a slightly longer favorite than the runner-up, but the main reason is because Steele is very unproven. Steele finished fifth in Cy Young voting and was an all-star last year in his second full season as a starter and should be the ace of a Cubs team that has legitimate playoff aspirations. Steele's best attribute since moving to the rotation was limiting the long ball and if he continues to do that and finds a way to pitch deeper in games, he could very easily make a case to win this award.
ICYM:
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