MLB Award Predictions 2024 pt 2: The two best pitchers on Earth are........

Welcome back to the dugout dispatch! Last week we went over the picks for the MVP awards and this week, we're focusing on the the award for the best pitchers on the planet: the Cy Young award. All stats are from Baseball Reference unless stated otherwise!

Last year's race wasn't the most exciting.  In the NL, Blake Snell dominated down the stretch en route to a league-best 2.43 ERA despite leading the league in BB/9. In the AL, Gerrit Cole dominated the race all year, finally securing his first CY Young of his career after many top 5 and top 3 finishes. 

This year's race however, appears to be wide open and begs the question: Who will take award the most prestigious pitching awards this year? From favorites to dark horses, check out our official Cy Young predictions!

Note: Despite Jordan Montgomery and reigning NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell still remaining unsigned, I don't see either winning the award this year.  Snell benefited from pitching in a pitcher-friendly park and his advanced metrics are a bit scary, while Montgomery still has to prove he can be that frontline starter for more than one season.

American League:

The Pick: Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees (+500 on most books)

The big question for Yankee Ace and best pitcher in baseball, Gerrit Cole, is how will he top last year's unanimous Cy Young season?  Every off-season Cole identifies one thing he wants to improve upon.  Last season it was pitching inside more and adding a cutter that he used to dominate the second half of the season. As a pitching fan, it's exciting to see how one of the best minds in the sport tries to reach another level. Here are some other reasons why he can win the Cy Young

• Still expected to be the best pitcher in baseball this year
• Still a tier above all other pitchers in the MLB (not just AL) at least
• Will have a lot more offensive support and 20 wins should be expected (wins matter to some extent)
• Pitches every five days with the intent to finish every game started
• Accumulates counting stats such as IP and K's that voters put a lot of stake in

The Runner-Up: Corbin Burnes, Baltimore Orioles (+1000 on most books)

The first move of the Orioles' new ownership was a massive one as they acquired ex-Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes without giving up any of their S-tier prospects.  Burnes will be called upon to lead a young Oriole's pitching staff that desperately needed an established ace and here are some other reasons why he can win the Cy Young:

• Moves from an offensively limited Brewers to a strong Orioles' offense which should lead to an uptick in wins
• Baltimore is a very pitcher-friendly park thanks to their endless left field, which will help keep Burne's ERA and FIP down
• Baltimore only has him for this year and won't have him on any sort of innings limit and should have him pitch every 5 days (unlike the Brewers who used a 6-man rotation)

The Dark Horse: Cole Ragans, Kansas City Royals (+2800 on DraftKings)

Ragans really emerged for the Royals in the second half last season and will be their ace in 2024.  The lefty relies on a deadly Fastball/Changeup combo and mixes in a slider, cutter, and curveball as well.  Walks were a bit of a problem but Ragans was above the 80th percentile in K Rate, xBA, Fastball Velo, Whiff Percentage, and xBA (per Baseball Savant). If Ragans can build off this strong second half and control the walks, he could find his way into the conversation for this award and could be the first Royals Cy Young winner since Zack Greinke.

Honorable Mentions: Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays

National League:

The Pick: Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves (+550 on most books)

Strider and his tight pants have been a nightmare for opposing hitters.  His deadly fastball/slider combo is reminiscent of a young DeGrom and he finished top 5 in Cy Young voting last year en route to leading the league in Wins (20) and Strikeouts (281).  Lastly, Strider will be the Ace of a Braves team that is very easy to call the best team in baseball.  Here are some other reasons why I think he will win the NL Cy Young:

• Advanced Stats love him thanks to his high strikeout-to-walk ratio (4.8:1) and low Homerun rate (1.1 HR/9)
• After disappointing playoffs (shown by his outburst) he will want to be a workhorse this year and set the tone every five days
• We could see him approach Gerrit Cole's volume and reach 200 IP this season
• Run Support will never be an issue as long as he pitches for this Braves team --> 20 20-win season should be expected again

The Runner-Up: Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks (+1400)

Gallen has been a very nice addition for the Diamondbacks and has finished top 5 in Cy Young voting the previous two seasons.  The Ace of the World Series runner-ups has gotten better each of the past three seasons while pitching in an extremely tough division but still has struck out more than one batter per inning and allowed less than one homer per game.  Gallen loves to go deep in games and has pitched almost 400 IP over the past two seasons.  Some other reasons he could bring home the Cy Young are:

• Ace on a good team that will go deep into games (should top 200 IP again this season)
• Finished third last season, any small step forward could be enough to push him above the rest of the field and win the Cy Young
• Effective against both lefties and righties thanks to extremely good change-up

The Dark Horse: Justin Steele, Chicago Cubs (+1600)

It is fair to wonder why the dark horse is only a slightly longer favorite than the runner-up, but the main reason is because Steele is very unproven.  Steele finished fifth in Cy Young voting and was an all-star last year in his second full season as a starter and should be the ace of a Cubs team that has legitimate playoff aspirations. Steele's best attribute since moving to the rotation was limiting the long ball and if he continues to do that and finds a way to pitch deeper in games, he could very easily make a case to win this award.

ICYM:

Check out our previous articles!

- Cody to the Cubs Reaction and what it means for the rest of the Boras Four

- MLB Awards Prediction pt 1: MVP edition

Cody to the Cubs! The first of the Boras Four finds a home but what's up with the others?

For the second consecutive offseason, Cody Bellinger and the Cubs have agreed on a deal to have the 28-year-old former rookie of the year, MVP, and World Series champion take his talents to Wrigley Field.  Jeff Passan was first with the news reporting that the two were in agreement on a three-year, 80m dollar deal with an opt-out after each of the first two seasons. As the best hitter left on the market finally signs with a team, it leaves us with two big questions:

How did we get here? 

How could this affect the deals for the rest of the Boras four (Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Matt Chapman)?  

Let's go over it all in this edition of the Dugout Dispatch!

How'd we get here?

At the beginning of the offseason, Cody Bellinger was considered the second-best hitter on the open market (only behind Ohtani) and was considered a top 5 free agent who could command a contract north of $200m (we had him listed at #3, getting a $210 contract). Instead of that massive contract, Cody eventually signed what's a 1 year, 30-million-dollar deal, with two insurance years in case he performs poorly or gets injured.

Despite a solid slash line last season (.307/.356/.525 for a 133 OPS+ and 4.4 rWAR), his advanced metrics implied that Cody potentially benefited from lots of luck.  Cody had a high BABIP, low exit velo, low barrel %, and very low Hard-Hit % per Baseball Savant.  The first stat, (batting average on balls in play) means that when Cody made contact, it typically landed for a hit.  The last three stats say that Cody did not typically hit the ball very hard when he did make contact, which combined with his high BABIP stat means that he was very lucky with the placement of his contact.

Due to this, teams were probably hesitant to commit a lot of money in a long-term deal to a player who before 2023, frankly wasn't even a starting-caliber player after injuring his shoulder in 2019.  Combining those three very poor seasons with what appears to be a flukey 2023 season, it's very easy to understand why owners and teams did not want to make the financial commitment both Boras and Cody were seeking. 

Heading into 2024, Cody finds himself in a similar situation to last season: proving he's still the elite talent that won MVP in his third season and that 2023 wasn't a fluke.  If he does that, maybe he'll get that massive contract he was seeking next season.

What does this mean for the remaining top Free Agents?

With Cody signing, the first of the Boras four have found their team for the 2024 season.  Boras players haven't shied away from waiting into March to sign a contract if it meant getting them the terms they wanted, but as each day passes by it seems less and less likely that Chapman, Snell, and Montgomery will get the money they desired, and Cody's signing can be a sign of the type of contract these players will look to sign.

Of the four, Matt Chapman has been the most consistent but has the lowest ceiling by far.  Snell, Monty, and Belli on the other hand have all shown very high ceilings, but come with lots of question marks.  We went over Cody's above, but Snell has had two extremely good seasons (in which he won the Cy Young in each), but has been unremarkable otherwise.  Montgomery was a solid middle-of-the-rotation type of pitcher, but last year showed that he could lead a rotation. 

Of the remaining three, I think Montgomery will sign a contract similar to Cody Bellinger -- a shorter, high AAV contract with opt-outs to allow him to prove that last year wasn't a fluke and he can be a frontline starter for years to come.  

Snell and Chapman are a little more complicated.

Snell's value will likely never be higher.  He's coming off the best season of his career where he joined an extremely exclusive group of players to win the Cy Young in both leagues.  However, he's on the wrong side of 30, led the leagues in walks leading to a FIP higher than his league-leading ERA, and has been quite unremarkable outside of his Cy Young years.  Due to this I think it's unlikely for him to settle for a shorter-term deal, and will look to secure a 6-year contract for the most money he possibly can get.

Chapman, on the other hand, will always provide elite defense and some slugging, but will never be reliable enough to be a true middle-of-the-order bat.  Given his high floor/low ceiling, I can see him cashing in on a long-term deal with plenty of incentives to boost the salary -- i.e. MVP votes, silver sluggers, ABs, etc.

MLB Award Predictions 2024: Who will rise as the best players on the planet

The MVP machine (Shohei Ohtani) has left for the other LA team, and the AL MVP is up for grabs again.  No longer will it take a historic season to potentially bring home the award, and for the first time since 2020 no one is penciled in as the favorite to take home the title of "Best player in the American League". Ohtani will also most likely only hit this season as he recovers from his second Tommy John surgery, leaving the NL MVP wide open as it has been in years past.  Here are my favorite picks and honorable mentions for each league's MVP award.

American League:

The Pick: Juan Soto, OF New York Yankees (+600 on most books)

All eyes will be on the Dominican superstar who will probably make more than half a billion dollars this offseason, here's why I think he'll win the MVP.

• Best pure hitter in baseball who struggled to hit in the pitcher-friendly Petco park 
• Hit .240 at home last year and .307 on the road -- massive massive difference (per Fangraphs)
• Now will play half his games at the hitter-neutral (but lefty-friendly) Yankee Stadium
• Lives for the pressure that he'll face this season -- won a World Series at the age of 20 and had an OPS of 1.178 that series
• Will hit in front of the best slugger in baseball (Aaron Judge) and will see plenty of good pitches to hit

The Runner-Up: Aaron Judge, OF New York Yankees (+550 on most books)

Lost in the Yankees' disappointing 2023 season was the success of Judge. He still looked like the player who broke the AL homerun record and here's why I think he could win MVP this year:

• Best Slugger in the game
• Despite dealing with an injured toe down the stretch, had an OPS of 1.019 (per Baseball Reference)
• Hit 37 Homers in 106 games, which is a 57 homerun pace over a full season
• With Soto (and his ridiculous OBP) hitting in front of him, plenty of Judge solo home runs will now be multi-run homers, leading to more RBIs

The Dark Horse: Adley Rutschman, C Baltimore Orioles (+2200 on Caesars)

There hasn't been a player like Adley in a very very long time.  As soon as he was called up, the Orioles immediately became a much better team and part of that is due to his bat (middle-of-the-order switch hitters aren't common), and part of that is due to his defense and leadership.  He could take another step forward offensively as the Orioles continue to call up more of their stud prospects and he will be the best player on what could be the best AL team.

Honorable Mention: Kyle Tucker, OF Astros

National League:

The Pick: Fernando Tatis Jr., OF San Diego Padres (+1000 on most books)

Tatis's career has just begun and it's been a roller coaster.  From an electrifying rookie year, to a record-setting contract, to a mysterious motorcycle injury, to a PED suspension to a move to the outfield, it feels like Tatis is (hopefully) entering 2024 after a full offseason dedicated to baseball and here's why I think he'll win the NL MVP

• In a down year (only hit .257 with an OPS of .770), still accumulated an rWAR of 5.5 (per Baseball Reference)
• Tatis's down year and the disappointing 2023 season for the Padres have lowered expectations for Tatis and he should thrive again
• Defense in the outfield won him a platinum glove, he was never a great defensive shortstop and now profiles as a legitimate five-tool player
• Has the potential to be a 40 homer, 50 stolen base, 40 doubles player, this would be more than enough to win him the MVP

The Backup: Ronald Acuña Jr., OF Atlanta Braves (+550 on most books)

As much as I didn't want to pick someone to win back-to-back MVPs, it just wasn't possible in this case.  Acuña had a historic season in 2023 to win a tight race against Mookie Betts, and there's plenty of reasons to believe he can repeat:

• Leadoff hitter/best player for potentially the best team and best offense in baseball
• Will have plenty of ABs and will score plenty of runs
• Elite base stealer, he might not get 70 again like last year but if he gets less than 50 it would be considered a disappointment
• 40-40 season is the expectation going forward for him
• Just entering his prime now, it wouldn't be surprising if he keeps getting better

The Dark Horse: Francisco Lindor, SS New York Mets (+3000 Fanduel)

Lindor is the most underrated player in baseball.  He is quite frankly the best shortstop in baseball and doesn't get the respect he deserves because the Mets have managed to comically fall short of their expectations in the past two years.  This year, there are no expectations for the Mets and Lindor could steal 30 bases, hit 40 doubles and 25 homers in the heart of what could be a very good offense.

Honorable Mention: Freddie Freeman, 1B Dodgers