Sorry for the delay but we're rounding off the rest of our Free Agent Rankings and predictions before too much happens at the Winter Meetings. We've changed up the format slightly to focus on the key points related to each player and all stats are courtesy of baseball reference. Don't forget to check out the first two parts in the ICYM section below if you haven't yet!
#15 - #11: Some Outfielders find homes
15. Jorge Soler, DH/OF
2023: 137G, .250/.341/.512, .853 OPS, 128 OPS+, 1.8 rWAR
- Middle of the lineup power bat
- Opted out of 2 years 28m remaining on his previous deal so will want at least 30m on the next contract
- Proven clutch hitter shown by memorable postseason run with Atlanta in 2021 run
- Will be 32 next season and is not a reliable defender
- Comp: Less proven JD Martinez
- Prediction: Brewers, 4 Years 60M
- Brewers can use another righty power bat and he would immediately be the best power hitter on that team
- Gets a lengthy contract with more than double the money he left on the table when he opted out of his Marlins contract
14. Lourdes Gurriel Jr., OF/DH
2023: 145G, .261/.309/.463, .772 OPS, 108 OPS+, 3.0 rWAR
- Has played SS, 2B, and LF in his career
- primarily a LF/DH in recent years
- Solid defensively in left field, 14 defensive runs saved
- First-time all-star in 2023
- Prediction: Dodgers, 4 Years 50m
- The Dodgers can have Gurriel Jr fill into their outfield and be their everyday left fielder
- Frees up Chris Taylor to play that utility role that made him such a favorite
13. Jung Hoo Lee, OF
2023: 86G, .318/.406/.455, .860 OPS*
*in KBO
- KBO Career: 7 seasons, 884G, .340/.407/.491, .898 OPS
- Ridiculous stat line despite playing in an inferior league
- Doubles machine
- Low k%, high contact lefty hitter that plays very good defense
- Primarily a CF but can play LF/RF as well
- Will be only 25
- Prediction: Mets, 6 years 84m with player opt-out after year 4
- If he only hits 80% as well would have an OPS of .717 which would've been the 11th best among CFs last year
- Helps the Mets get a lot younger in the OF
- More time at DH for Marte
- Nimmo and Lee would provide above-average defense in a big outfield
- Two annoying contact hitters can help the Mets chase starters early in games
- Lee can slide over to CF as Nimmo ages
- Lee can opt out and cash in on another big contract heading into his age-30 Season
12. Jeimer Canderlario, 3B
2023: 140G, .251/.336/.471, .807 OPS, 119 OPS+, 2.9 rWAR
- Switch Hitting third baseman traded to the Cubs by the Nats at the deadline
- Slightly above-average hitter in his career
- Will be 30 years old next season
- Switch hitting gives him extra value
- Prediction: Yankees, 3 years 36m
- Yankees need proven, non-righty MLB hitters desperately
- Canderlario provides lineup balance
- Canderlario is proven, the Yankees' log jam of IF prospects is not
- Can't waste more prime Judge/Cole years
11. Teoscar Hernandez, OF/DH
2023: 160G, .258/.305/.435 .741 OPS, 106 OPS+, 2.1 rWAR
- Good season but hasn't been able to replicate 2021 all-star form
- Solid power bat who hit 25+ homers in each of the last 4 full seasons
- Well be 31 going into next season
- Prediction: Red Sox, 4 years 55m
- Sox reported to be shopping RF Alex Verdugo, Hernandez can slide in as a replacement
- Hernandez gets long-term security despite his rWAR declining each of the past two seasons
- Fenway is the ideal park for Hernandez
- Easier to play the corner outfield spots and a very hitter-friendly park
#10 - #4: Pitcher Zone
10. Eduardo Rodriguez, SP
2023: 26GS, 152.2 IP, 3.30 ERA, 134 ERA+, 1.153 WHIP, 3.66 FIP
- E-Rod was good for the Tigers in his time there
- Coming off the best season of career (ERA-wise)
- Rejected trade to the Dodgers at trade deadline thanks to no-trade-clause
- Rejected due to preference to stay closer to family on the East Coast, however says location doesn't matter to him
- Solid Starter, not an ace but someone that can go deep into games
- Would be a good number 2 starter in a playoff rotation
- Prediction: Orioles, 6 years 130m
- The Orioles should've traded for him at the Trade Deadline
- They need starting pitching badly, they have some young starters with good potential (G-Rod) but they need an established MLB starter
- Can help mentor their young arms
- Orioles need to spend money, they have too many young players on team-friendly deals to not spend now
- They're an MLB team that gets extra money from the teams over the luxury tax threshold
9. Sonny Gray, SP
2023: 32GS, 184 IP, 2.79 ERA, 154 ERA+, 1.147 WHIP, 2.83 FIP
- Gray is coming off the best season of his career
- Signed with the Cardinals for 3 years, 75m
- Will be their Ace
8. Josh Hader, RP
2023: 61G, 56.1 IP, 33 saves, 1.28 ERA, 321 ERA+, 1.101 WHIP, 2.69 FIP
- Hader re-established himself as a premier closer after a shaky 2022
- Arguably the most dominant season of his career
- Will be 30 going into next season
- Still a top 3 closer in the league, will look to cash in like Edwin Diaz and Chapman/Kenley before him
- Prediction: Texas Rangers, 5 years, 80m
- The Rangers looked to shore up the back end of their bullpen when they added Aroldis Chapman early last season, and get a massive upgrade this offseason
- Gives the defending champs the best closer in baseball for the next 5 years
- Front load the contract since the Mets are paying most of Max Scherzer's salary and gives them more flexibility in the future
7. Matt Chapman, 3B
2023: 140G, .240/.330/.424, .744 OPS, 108 OPS+, 4.4 rWAR
- Started the year red hot before cooling off
- Elite defender, two-time platinum glove winner, and won his fourth gold glove in seven years in 2023
- Above average hitter in his career (OPS+ 117) and elite defender can lead to a big payday
- Ironman, played in 140+ games in every full season of his career except for rookie season
- Hit 39 doubles to only 17 homers this year (lowest in a full season since rookie season) but battled 4 injuries this season and still played 140 games
- Prediction: Giants, 7 years 150m
- The Giants have been looking to add a big name for a couple of years (failed at Judge last season and Correa's injury history scared them off, rightfully)
- Giants get a cornerstone defensive player who should provide elite defense for the majority of this contract
- Middle of the lineup bat for them as well
6. Jordan Montgomery, SP
2023: 32G, 188.2 IP, 3.20 ERA, 138 ERA+, 1.193 WHIP, 3.56 FIP
- Nobody increased their value more than Monty did this season
- Went from a fringe 3 starter on the Yankees to a bonafide ace for the Rangers
- A big part of their World Series run
- Workhorse throughout his career, making 94 starts over the last 3 seasons
- Will be 31 next year
- Not a power pitcher, relies on deception between his sinker and curveball to get hitters out
- Prediction: Cubs, 7 years 165m, player opt-out after 3 years
- Cubs get a front-of-the-rotation starter they've been looking for
- Monty retains the ability to prove this year wasn't a fluke and could potentially cash in one more time in 3 years if he pitches well
- Monty being a ground ball pitcher will benefit from having Dansby Swanson behind him and negates the crazy winds of Wrigley
5. Aaron Nola, SP
2023: 32GS, 193.2 IP, 4.46 ERA, 96 ERA+, 1.151 WHIP, 4.03 FIP
- Coming off a down year
- Proven workhorse, consistently throws over 180IPs
- Resigned with Phillies to be their number 2 starter for 7 years, 172M
#4 - #3: The Borderline Elite
4. Blake Snell, SP
2023: 32GS, 180 IP, 2.25 ERA, 182 ERA+, 1.189 WHIP, 3.44 FIP
- Snell was dominant in the second half of the season and was rewarded with his second Cy Young Award
- Poster-child for Stuff over Command walks a lot of hitters but also strikes out a ton of hitters
- Best H/9 in the league (5.8)
- Low HR/9 (0.8) but pitched half his games in a very pitcher-friendly park
- Could be due for regression, outside of Cy Young years never pitched over 130 IP in a season nor an ERA under 3
- Will be 31 next season
- Prediction: Red Sox, 6 years 180m
- Red Sox need starting pitching badly
- Snell returns to the AL East where he won his first Cy Young
- Slides into the ace role immediately
3. Cody Bellinger, OF/1B
2023: 130G, .307/.356/.525, .881 OPS, 133 OPS+, 4.4 rWAR
- Won ROY in 2017 and then MVP in his third season
- Three seasons after have been very very ugly
- Completely lost power in 2021 (.302 slugging)
- Signed a 1year "prove it" deal with the Cubs and had a bounce-back year
- Despite a good stat line, advanced metrics imply Cody benefited from a lot of luck
- high BABIP, low exit velo, low barrel %, really low Hard-Hit % per baseball savant
- Will be only 28 next year
- Prediction: Giants, 8 years 210m
- Giants add another household name slot into the heart of their order
- Belli gets a longterm commitment based on results from last season and potential, rather than his track record
Top 2: The Big Fish
2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, SP
2023: 24G, 171 IP, 1.16 ERA, 0.860 WHIP
- The Premier starting pitcher on the market
- Pitched for 7 years in the NPB
- 3 time MVP winner
- 3 time Cy Young equivalent winner
- 3 time triple crown winner
- Showed nasty stuff in WBC
- Will be only 25
- Multiple teams gushing over his ability, considered to be an immediate top 10 pitcher in the league at worst
- Prediction: Yankees, 10 years 280m, opt-out after year 5
- the bidding will be intense, wouldn't be surprised if he gets an AAV over 30m per year or a longer contract
- Yankees have been infatuated with him all season
- Need to make a statement to keep their fans happy, Steinbrenner has the money to bid with Steve Cohen if he wants to
- Yankees get an ace to pair with Cole, giving them the best 1-2 punch in the league by far, and two pitchers that can win them a playoff series
1. Shohei Ohtani, P/DH
2023 Hitting: 135G, .304/.412/.654, 1.066 OPS, 184 OPS+, 10.0 rWAR Total
2023 Pitching: 23GS, 132.0 IP, 3.14 ERA, 142 ERA+, 1.061 WHIP, 4.00 FIP
- The best player in the history of the sport is available
- The only knocks are that he has to be a DH and is undergoing his second Tommy John surgery
- Potentially could become a lockdown closer post-surgery
- Been an elite starter the past 3 years if they want to keep him as a starter
- MVP Caliber Hitter and Cy Young Caliber Pitcher in one-player
- Will be 29 next season
- Despite having Tommy John surgery, plans to be able to hit by opening day
- Prediction: Dodgers, 12 years 600m
- The Giants and Mariners will probably be in on this, but Ohtani to the Dodgers makes too much sense
- Ohtani gets to play for a legit contender and regular-season powerhouse,
- Dodgers get the star they've been having to watch their rivals waste away the past few years
- Giants end up settling for the players mentioned above, Mariners make a big play at Soto
ICYM:
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