Trade Reaction: The best hitter is moved, Juan Soto trade reaction and analysis

As of writing, this deal isn't finalized but it's been in the final stages for multiple hours now per many reliable sources on Twitter/X. As we've previously stated, this is the most obvious move of the offseason. The Padres need to cut costs and are seeking young MLB-ready or near-ready pitching.  Simultaneously, the Yankees need lefty-hitting outfielders, a marquee name to appease fans (although Soto is so much more than that), and boast a surplus of MLB-ready pitching prospects. 

The alleged complete trade is as follows:

- Padres receive Mike King, Jhony Brito, Randy Vasquez, top pitching prospect Drew Thorpe, and catcher Kyle Higashioka

- Yankees receive Juan Soto and Trent Grisham

Examining Baseball Trade Value's analysis, it appears that the Padres are acquiring nearly double the value from the Yankees compared to what they are giving up for Soto.  This makes sense given Soto is only a one-year rental, and the fact that he still commands a 23.8 value is a testament to how good of a hitter he is.  However, despite some financial issues, the Padres could've gone for it all one last time this season (as any lineup featuring Tatis Jr., Soto, and Xander is a scary assignment every night) and thus needed to be convinced to give up Soto.  We'll go into this in more detail in our breakdown of each team's analysis of the move.

San Diego Padres, Trade grade and analysis

Grade: A

While this trade deserves a solid A, it falls short of an  A+ primarily because the Padres paid a higher price for Soto a year and a half ago and had minimal success and it's fair to wonder if they should've gone for it all one last time this year.  Nevertheless, they convinced the Yankees to part with prized pitching prospect Drew Thorpe AND star pitcher Mike King in this deal.  

King has been the best reliever in baseball when healthy and racked up an absurd 5.1 rWAR over the past two seasons, despite missing half of the 2022 season due to injury.  Towards the end of the season, King started to transition towards being a starter (what he came up in the Yankees system as) and was as good, if not better, finishing with a 1.88 ERA in his 8 starts, per CBS Sports. The one knock on King is he hasn't shown he's been able to throw over 110 innings in a season yet.

Drew Thorpe, the 2022 2nd-round pick, skyrocketed in popularity and hype this season and capped his stellar season off by winning the MiLB Pitching Prospect of the Year award as the Yankees' 5th-best prospect. Thorpe started the year in High-A before finishing his season in AA with a total stat line of 23 GS, 2.52 ERA, 0.983 WHIP over 139.1 IP.  

Jhony Brito and Randy Vasquez both made it to the MLB this season and profile as backend starters at best or reliable swingmen.  Brito appeared in 25G (13 GS) with an ERA of 4.28, WHIP of 1.218, ERA+ of 101 over 90.1 IP.  Vasquez, who was called up later than Brito, appeared in 11G (5 GS) with an ERA of 2.87, WHIP of 1.274, and ERA+ of 152 over 37.2 IP.  Vasquez's numbers could be inflated by a small sample size and mostly being an innings eater, but he did provide a memorable first start vs. the Padres throwing 4.2 solid innings.

Kyle Higashioka is a defensive first catcher who will run into a couple of homers throughout the year.  The biggest thing he'll bring to the Padres (along with his defense) is his familiarity with three of the four pitchers they're acquiring.

New York Yankees, Trade grade and analysis

Grade: B

The Yankees got their guy.  Juan Soto has been the most obvious, and impactful, addition the Yankees could've made this offseason.  Soto, who is below average defensively, will be the most feared hitter in the Yankee lineup next year (including Aaron Judge). The future Hall of Famer played every game last season and had an OPS of .930 (while playing half his games in a very pitcher-friendly park), hit 35 homers (career high), and led the league in walks for the third consecutive year.  Expecting Soto to hit 50 home runs next year is fair considering he will move to the much more hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium (where he's hit 4 homers in 7 career games). 

In this deal, the Yankees are also getting defensive outfielder Trent Grisham, who should be primarily used as a late-game defensive substitution.  Grisham is under team control through 2026 and has won two gold gloves in his five years while playing primarily center field.  Anything the Yankees get from Grisham offensively will be considered a win, as he has had a batting average under .200 in the past two seasons.

Despite getting the best hitter available, the Yankees could've probably closed this deal without including Drew Thorpe, as no other team can offer the Padres more young, MLB-ready, pitchers than the Yankees.  Yes, he's only a prospect and could very easily flame out, but they're only getting one year of Juan Soto (at $33m).  Unless the Yankees wildly overpay in an extension offer, Soto will test the open market next season where he could get over 50m AAV over 10 years as he will only be 26 when he hits free agency and has established himself as a Hall of Famer already.

ICYM:

Check out some of our previous articles from the past few days, linked below!

• Trade reaction to the rare Yankee/Red Sox swap, Why would the Yankees help their rival?
• Top 15 Free Agent Rankings and Landing Predictions
• Trade Reaction: Braves get former #4 prospect from the Mariners

12/5/23 Trade Reaction: The Stove heats up as the Sox/Yanks make a rare trade

As we teased yesterday on our Twitter, we're dropping our reaction and analysis of yesterday's two trades.  The Yankees and Sox made their 7th trade in the past 50 years (per Jeff Passan) as the Red Sox found Alex Verdugo a new home in exchange for some pitching prospects.  We also thought it is important to note that the Braves traded recently acquired Marco Gonzales to the Pirates for a player to be named later.  This trade isn't very noticeable as the Pirates gain an inning eater for a low-level prospect and (probably) some cash from the Braves.

Yankees + Red Sox Rare Swap

The most historic rivalry in American sports made waves yesterday, as they agreed to a deal for only the 7th time in the past half-century, as the Yankees sent over right-handed pitchers Greg Weissert, Richard Fitts, and Nicholas Judice in exchange for lefty outfielder, Alex Verdugo.  We're using Baseball Trade Values to assess the value in both sides for this deal and it looks like the Yankees got more value -- although Nicholas Judice isn't in their system yet but probably isn't worth more than Richard Fitts.

Our initial reaction yesterday was mostly confusion as to why the Yankees would agree to this trade. We've previously talked about how the Red Sox were looking to move Verdugo, and Verdugo is a potential good fit for the Yankees in need of a Lefty corner outfielder but in this trade, they're helping the Red Sox address their biggest weakness: their pitching. 

Weissert has elite stuff but has struggled with control at the Major League level.  If he's able to hone in his control he can be a very good closer in this league.  Richard Fitts, a player whom most fans have never heard about,  quietly had a very good season in AA for the Yankees, starting 27 games and pitching to a 3.54 ERA and 1.140 WHIP.  The last player included was the Yankees 8th round pick in the 2023 draft, Nicholas Judice, a 6'8 pitcher who has touched 100 with a secondary slider.  Realistically Judice will be a reliever as his third pitch, his change-up, isn't graded very highly by mlb.com.  

In Verdugo, the Yankees are getting a lefty corner outfielder (although not the one fans wanted) who was a league-average hitter (100 OPS+) in a hitter-friendly park but should benefit from the short porch in Yankee Stadium as well as provide some much-needed balance to the Yankees' lineup. However, the big story about Alex Verdugo on the year was his mysterious benching by the Red Sox manager Alex Cora and he potentially has an attitude and effort issue.  Verdugo has struggled defensively in center field, and it's most likely he would play LF or RF with Judge kicking over to CF.

*Note we don't think Verdugo will be flipped in any potential Soto trade, as he will be a free agent following the 2024 season and the Padres would probably be more interested in Yankee prospect outfielders.  

ICYM:

Check out our recent articles linked below!

• Top 15 Free Agent Rankings and Predictions
• Trade reaction: Mariners send Braves former #4 prospect Jared Kelenic

MLB Free Agent Predictions Part 3: The Top 15

Sorry for the delay but we're rounding off the rest of our Free Agent Rankings and predictions before too much happens at the Winter Meetings. We've changed up the format slightly to focus on the key points related to each player and all stats are courtesy of baseball reference. Don't forget to check out the first two parts in the ICYM section below if you haven't yet!

#15 - #11: Some Outfielders find homes

15. Jorge Soler, DH/OF

2023: 137G, .250/.341/.512, .853 OPS, 128 OPS+, 1.8 rWAR

• Middle of the lineup power bat
• Opted out of 2 years 28m remaining on his previous deal so will want at least 30m on the next contract
• Proven clutch hitter shown by memorable postseason run with Atlanta in 2021 run
• Will be 32 next season and is not a reliable defender
• Comp: Less proven JD Martinez
• Prediction: Brewers, 4 Years 60M
• Brewers can use another righty power bat and he would immediately be the best power hitter on that team
• Gets a lengthy contract with more than double the money he left on the table when he opted out of his Marlins contract

14. Lourdes Gurriel Jr., OF/DH

2023: 145G, .261/.309/.463, .772 OPS, 108 OPS+, 3.0 rWAR

• Has played SS, 2B, and LF in his career
• primarily a LF/DH in recent years
• Solid defensively in left field, 14 defensive runs saved
• First-time all-star in 2023
• Prediction: Dodgers, 4 Years 50m
• The Dodgers can have Gurriel Jr fill into their outfield and be their everyday left fielder
• Frees up Chris Taylor to play that utility role that made him such a favorite

13. Jung Hoo Lee, OF

2023: 86G, .318/.406/.455, .860 OPS*

*in KBO

• KBO Career: 7 seasons, 884G, .340/.407/.491, .898 OPS
• Ridiculous stat line despite playing in an inferior league
• Doubles machine
• Low k%, high contact lefty hitter that plays very good defense
• Primarily a CF but can play LF/RF as well
• Will be only 25
• Prediction: Mets, 6 years 84m with player opt-out after year 4
• If he only hits 80% as well would have an OPS of .717 which would've been the 11th best among CFs last year
• Helps the Mets get a lot younger in the OF
• More time at DH for Marte
• Nimmo and Lee would provide above-average defense in a big outfield
• Two annoying contact hitters can help the Mets chase starters early in games
• Lee can slide over to CF as Nimmo ages
• Lee can opt out and cash in on another big contract heading into his age-30 Season

12. Jeimer Canderlario, 3B

2023: 140G, .251/.336/.471, .807 OPS, 119 OPS+, 2.9 rWAR

• Switch Hitting third baseman traded to the Cubs by the Nats at the deadline
• Slightly above-average hitter in his career
• Will be 30 years old next season
• Switch hitting gives him extra value
• Prediction: Yankees, 3 years 36m
• Yankees need proven, non-righty MLB hitters desperately
• Canderlario provides lineup balance
• Canderlario is proven, the Yankees' log jam of IF prospects is not
• Can't waste more prime Judge/Cole years

11. Teoscar Hernandez, OF/DH

2023: 160G, .258/.305/.435 .741 OPS, 106 OPS+, 2.1 rWAR

• Good season but hasn't been able to replicate 2021 all-star form
• Solid power bat who hit 25+ homers in each of the last 4 full seasons
• Well be 31 going into next season
• Prediction: Red Sox, 4 years 55m
• Sox reported to be shopping RF Alex Verdugo, Hernandez can slide in as a replacement
• Hernandez gets long-term security despite his rWAR declining each of the past two seasons
• Fenway is the ideal park for Hernandez
• Easier to play the corner outfield spots and a very hitter-friendly park

#10 - #4: Pitcher Zone

10. Eduardo Rodriguez, SP

2023: 26GS, 152.2 IP, 3.30 ERA, 134 ERA+, 1.153 WHIP, 3.66 FIP

• E-Rod was good for the Tigers in his time there
• Coming off the best season of career (ERA-wise)
• Rejected trade to the Dodgers at trade deadline thanks to no-trade-clause
• Rejected due to preference to stay closer to family on the East Coast, however says location doesn't matter to him 
• Solid Starter, not an ace but someone that can go deep into games
• Would be a good number 2 starter in a playoff rotation
• Prediction: Orioles, 6 years 130m
• The Orioles should've traded for him at the Trade Deadline
• They need starting pitching badly, they have some young starters with good potential (G-Rod) but they need an established MLB starter
• Can help mentor their young arms
• Orioles need to spend money, they have too many young players on team-friendly deals to not spend now
• They're an MLB team that gets extra money from the teams over the luxury tax threshold

9. Sonny Gray, SP

2023: 32GS, 184 IP, 2.79 ERA, 154 ERA+, 1.147 WHIP, 2.83 FIP

• Gray is coming off the best season of his career
• Signed with the Cardinals for 3 years, 75m
• Will be their Ace 

8. Josh Hader, RP

2023: 61G, 56.1 IP, 33 saves, 1.28 ERA, 321 ERA+, 1.101 WHIP, 2.69 FIP

• Hader re-established himself as a premier closer after a shaky 2022
• Arguably the most dominant season of his career
• Will be 30 going into next season
• Still a top 3 closer in the league, will look to cash in like Edwin Diaz and Chapman/Kenley before him
• Prediction: Texas Rangers, 5 years, 80m
• The Rangers looked to shore up the back end of their bullpen when they added Aroldis Chapman early last season, and get a massive upgrade this offseason
• Gives the defending champs the best closer in baseball for the next 5 years
• Front load the contract since the Mets are paying most of Max Scherzer's salary and gives them more flexibility in the future

7. Matt Chapman, 3B

2023: 140G, .240/.330/.424, .744 OPS, 108 OPS+, 4.4 rWAR

• Started the year red hot before cooling off
• Elite defender, two-time platinum glove winner, and won his fourth gold glove in seven years in 2023
• Above average hitter in his career (OPS+ 117) and elite defender can lead to a big payday
• Ironman, played in 140+ games in every full season of his career except for rookie season
• Hit 39 doubles to only 17 homers this year (lowest in a full season since rookie season) but battled 4 injuries this season and still played 140 games
• Prediction: Giants, 7 years 150m
• The Giants have been looking to add a big name for a couple of years (failed at Judge last season and Correa's injury history scared them off, rightfully)
• Giants get a cornerstone defensive player who should provide elite defense for the majority of this contract
• Middle of the lineup bat for them as well

6. Jordan Montgomery, SP

2023: 32G, 188.2 IP, 3.20 ERA, 138 ERA+, 1.193 WHIP, 3.56 FIP

• Nobody increased their value more than Monty did this season
• Went from a fringe 3 starter on the Yankees to a bonafide ace for the Rangers
• A big part of their World Series run
• Workhorse throughout his career, making 94 starts over the last 3 seasons
• Will be 31 next year
• Not a power pitcher, relies on deception between his sinker and curveball to get hitters out
• Prediction: Cubs, 7 years 165m, player opt-out after 3 years
• Cubs get a front-of-the-rotation starter they've been looking for 
• Monty retains the ability to prove this year wasn't a fluke and could potentially cash in one more time in 3 years if he pitches well
• Monty being a ground ball pitcher will benefit from having Dansby Swanson behind him and negates the crazy winds of Wrigley

5. Aaron Nola, SP

2023: 32GS, 193.2 IP, 4.46 ERA, 96 ERA+, 1.151 WHIP, 4.03 FIP

• Coming off a down year
• Proven workhorse, consistently throws over 180IPs 
• Resigned with Phillies to be their number 2 starter for 7 years, 172M

#4 - #3: The Borderline Elite

4. Blake Snell, SP

2023: 32GS, 180 IP, 2.25 ERA, 182 ERA+, 1.189 WHIP, 3.44 FIP

• Snell was dominant in the second half of the season and was rewarded with his second Cy Young Award
• Poster-child for Stuff over Command walks a lot of hitters but also strikes out a ton of hitters
• Best H/9 in the league (5.8) 
• Low HR/9  (0.8) but pitched half his games in a very pitcher-friendly park
• Could be due for regression, outside of Cy Young years never pitched over 130 IP in a season nor an ERA under 3
• Will be 31 next season
• Prediction: Red Sox, 6 years 180m
• Red Sox need starting pitching badly
• Snell returns to the AL East where he won his first Cy Young
• Slides into the ace role immediately

3. Cody Bellinger, OF/1B

2023: 130G, .307/.356/.525, .881 OPS, 133 OPS+, 4.4 rWAR

• Won ROY in 2017 and then MVP in his third season 
• Three seasons after have been very very ugly
• Completely lost power in 2021 (.302 slugging)
• Signed a 1year "prove it" deal with the Cubs and had a bounce-back year
• Despite a good stat line, advanced metrics imply Cody benefited from a lot of luck
• high BABIP, low exit velo, low barrel %, really low Hard-Hit % per baseball savant
• Will be only 28 next year
• Prediction: Giants, 8 years 210m 
• Giants add another household name slot into the heart of their order
• Belli gets a longterm commitment based on results from last season and potential, rather than his track record

Top 2: The Big Fish

2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, SP

2023: 24G, 171 IP, 1.16 ERA, 0.860 WHIP

• The Premier starting pitcher on the market
• Pitched for 7 years in the NPB
• 3 time MVP winner
• 3 time Cy Young equivalent winner
• 3 time triple crown winner
• Showed nasty stuff in WBC
• Will be only 25
• Multiple teams gushing over his ability, considered to be an immediate top 10 pitcher in the league at worst
• Prediction: Yankees, 10 years 280m, opt-out after year 5
• the bidding will be intense, wouldn't be surprised if he gets an AAV over 30m per year or a longer contract
• Yankees have been infatuated with him all season
• Need to make a statement to keep their fans happy, Steinbrenner has the money to bid with Steve Cohen if he wants to
• Yankees get an ace to pair with Cole, giving them the best 1-2 punch in the league by far, and two pitchers that can win them a playoff series 

1. Shohei Ohtani, P/DH

2023 Hitting: 135G, .304/.412/.654, 1.066 OPS, 184 OPS+, 10.0 rWAR Total

2023 Pitching: 23GS, 132.0 IP, 3.14 ERA, 142 ERA+, 1.061 WHIP, 4.00 FIP

• The best player in the history of the sport is available
• The only knocks are that he has to be a DH and is undergoing his second Tommy John surgery
• Potentially could become a lockdown closer post-surgery
• Been an elite starter the past 3 years if they want to keep him as a starter
• MVP Caliber Hitter and Cy Young Caliber Pitcher in one-player
• Will be 29 next season
• Despite having Tommy John surgery, plans to be able to hit by opening day
• Prediction: Dodgers, 12 years 600m
• The Giants and Mariners will probably be in on this, but Ohtani to the Dodgers makes too much sense 
• Ohtani gets to play for a legit contender and regular-season powerhouse, 
• Dodgers get the star they've been having to watch their rivals waste away the past few years
• Giants end up settling for the players mentioned above, Mariners make a big play at Soto

ICYM:

• Free Agents Prediction Part 1
• Free Agents Prediction Part 2
• Instant Reaction: Braves get former #4 prospect Jarred Kelenic

Instant Trade Reaction: Braves get former #4 prospect in swap with Mariners

The Winter Meetings opened yesterday and the Braves and Mariners officially got us started!  Late last night Jeff Passan reported that these two teams agreed to a subtle, but noticeable, swap as the Braves add a high-upside former top prospect and some depth as the Mariners dump some salary (@Soto @Ohtani 👀 ) and receive a pair of top picks in the process.

Atlanta Braves 

The Braves are giving the Mariners some salary relief, as Marco Gonzales is set to make 12m this year and has a 15m club option next year, while Evan White is still owed at least 15m over the next years (and has three club options at 10m, 11m, and 12.5m each) thanks to his pre-arbitration extension, per Spotrac.  

However, in this trade, the Braves get the former #4 prospect (Jarred Kelenic) and center of the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz trade with the Mets a few years ago. Kelenic struggled in his first two seasons hitting under .200 and getting sent back down to the minors a couple of times, but the young lefty showed signs of growth last year, slashing .253/.327/.419 for an OPS of .746 and OPS+ of 109 over 105 games in 2023 (2.0 rWAR).  Kelenic also still has 5 more years of team control and it wouldn't be surprising if he performs well for the Braves and gets signed to an extension next year (like they've done with all their young talent).

Marco Gonzales, can provide some starting pitching depth to the Braves who had plenty of depth issues down the stretch.  The Braves shouldn't rely on the soon-to-be 32-year-old to be a frontline starter for them, but he does have a respectable career 4.14 ERA and was a workhorse for the Mariners in 2022, throwing for 183 innings.

Seattle Mariners 

There have been a lot of rumors about the Mariners looking to create salary space and they did just that last night.  The purpose of having extra cap space is to throw their hat into the Ohtani, Yamamoto, and Soto (trade) sweepstakes happening this offseason.  All of these players are going to command contracts north of 30m a year, and the Mariners have cleared out almost that much cap space with this trade alone.

The Mariners also received two pitching prospects in 2018 first-round pick Jackson Kowar and 2022 second-round pick Cole Phillips.  Kowar is a 27-year-old who was in the Royals system and bounced between AAA and the show for the past 3 seasons but has struggled, pitching to an ERA of 9.12 in the MLB across 39 games (8 starts).  

The 20-year-old Cole Phillips missed all of 2023 due to Tommy John surgery suffered before he was drafted. Pre-surgery Phillips was hitting 100mph and sitting in the mid-90s, giving the Mariners a tantalizing, but raw, pitching prospect.

ICYM:

Check out our FA predictions and be on the lookout for our full list dropping later today!

• MLB Free Agents pt 2: 20-16
• MLB Free Agent Predictions Part 1: Honorable mentions and #25-21