As of writing, this deal isn't finalized but it's been in the final stages for multiple hours now per many reliable sources on Twitter/X. As we've previously stated, this is the most obvious move of the offseason. The Padres need to cut costs and are seeking young MLB-ready or near-ready pitching. Simultaneously, the Yankees need lefty-hitting outfielders, a marquee name to appease fans (although Soto is so much more than that), and boast a surplus of MLB-ready pitching prospects.
The alleged complete trade is as follows:
- Padres receive Mike King, Jhony Brito, Randy Vasquez, top pitching prospect Drew Thorpe, and catcher Kyle Higashioka
- Yankees receive Juan Soto and Trent Grisham
Examining Baseball Trade Value's analysis, it appears that the Padres are acquiring nearly double the value from the Yankees compared to what they are giving up for Soto. This makes sense given Soto is only a one-year rental, and the fact that he still commands a 23.8 value is a testament to how good of a hitter he is. However, despite some financial issues, the Padres could've gone for it all one last time this season (as any lineup featuring Tatis Jr., Soto, and Xander is a scary assignment every night) and thus needed to be convinced to give up Soto. We'll go into this in more detail in our breakdown of each team's analysis of the move.
San Diego Padres, Trade grade and analysis
Grade: A
While this trade deserves a solid A, it falls short of an A+ primarily because the Padres paid a higher price for Soto a year and a half ago and had minimal success and it's fair to wonder if they should've gone for it all one last time this year. Nevertheless, they convinced the Yankees to part with prized pitching prospect Drew Thorpe AND star pitcher Mike King in this deal.
King has been the best reliever in baseball when healthy and racked up an absurd 5.1 rWAR over the past two seasons, despite missing half of the 2022 season due to injury. Towards the end of the season, King started to transition towards being a starter (what he came up in the Yankees system as) and was as good, if not better, finishing with a 1.88 ERA in his 8 starts, per CBS Sports. The one knock on King is he hasn't shown he's been able to throw over 110 innings in a season yet.
Drew Thorpe, the 2022 2nd-round pick, skyrocketed in popularity and hype this season and capped his stellar season off by winning the MiLB Pitching Prospect of the Year award as the Yankees' 5th-best prospect. Thorpe started the year in High-A before finishing his season in AA with a total stat line of 23 GS, 2.52 ERA, 0.983 WHIP over 139.1 IP.
Jhony Brito and Randy Vasquez both made it to the MLB this season and profile as backend starters at best or reliable swingmen. Brito appeared in 25G (13 GS) with an ERA of 4.28, WHIP of 1.218, ERA+ of 101 over 90.1 IP. Vasquez, who was called up later than Brito, appeared in 11G (5 GS) with an ERA of 2.87, WHIP of 1.274, and ERA+ of 152 over 37.2 IP. Vasquez's numbers could be inflated by a small sample size and mostly being an innings eater, but he did provide a memorable first start vs. the Padres throwing 4.2 solid innings.
Kyle Higashioka is a defensive first catcher who will run into a couple of homers throughout the year. The biggest thing he'll bring to the Padres (along with his defense) is his familiarity with three of the four pitchers they're acquiring.
New York Yankees, Trade grade and analysis
Grade: B
The Yankees got their guy. Juan Soto has been the most obvious, and impactful, addition the Yankees could've made this offseason. Soto, who is below average defensively, will be the most feared hitter in the Yankee lineup next year (including Aaron Judge). The future Hall of Famer played every game last season and had an OPS of .930 (while playing half his games in a very pitcher-friendly park), hit 35 homers (career high), and led the league in walks for the third consecutive year. Expecting Soto to hit 50 home runs next year is fair considering he will move to the much more hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium (where he's hit 4 homers in 7 career games).
In this deal, the Yankees are also getting defensive outfielder Trent Grisham, who should be primarily used as a late-game defensive substitution. Grisham is under team control through 2026 and has won two gold gloves in his five years while playing primarily center field. Anything the Yankees get from Grisham offensively will be considered a win, as he has had a batting average under .200 in the past two seasons.
Despite getting the best hitter available, the Yankees could've probably closed this deal without including Drew Thorpe, as no other team can offer the Padres more young, MLB-ready, pitchers than the Yankees. Yes, he's only a prospect and could very easily flame out, but they're only getting one year of Juan Soto (at $33m). Unless the Yankees wildly overpay in an extension offer, Soto will test the open market next season where he could get over 50m AAV over 10 years as he will only be 26 when he hits free agency and has established himself as a Hall of Famer already.
ICYM:
Check out some of our previous articles from the past few days, linked below!
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