As promised part 2 of our free agent predictions is here! We predict the landing spot of an elite power hitter and three starting pitchers in this one. If you missed part 1 check it out in our last blog post where we went over 25-21 and some honorable mentions. All stats are curtesy of Baseball Reference and all contract information was found on Spotrac. Part 3 and 4 will be dropping Friday!
Free Agents 20-16
20. Jordan Hicks, RP
2023 Statline: 63G, 12 saves, 65.2 IP, 3.29 ERA, 1.355WHIP, 3.23FIP
Hicks started the season with the Cardinals before being dealt to the Blue Jays at the trade deadline. He actually pitched better for the Blue Jays down the stretch pitching for a 2.63 ERA over 24IP. Hicks is one of the youngest players on the market this season and will only be 27 next season, and he is also one of the hardest throwers in baseball, consistently topping 100MPH with his sinker. Hicks ranks in the 83 percentile in K% and 96 percentile in GB% (per Baseball Savant), but struggles with command at times leading to plenty of free passes. Overall he's a young elite back of the bullpen arm but has yet to have the opportunity to be the main closer on a team, limiting his contract upside.
Prediction: Marlins, 5 years 60m
This is a pretty hefty contract by Marlins standards but given the surplus of young, cost controlled starting pitchers at their disposal they can afford to spend a little extra on a reliever. Marlins were looking for bullpen help at the trade deadline when they traded for David Robertson from the Mets, and Hicks can slide into the closer role that was vacated by Robertson's poor performance and now free agency. Hicks will also be a compliment to the surplus of hard throwing lefties in the Marlins bullpen such as A.J Puk and Tanner Scott.
19. J.D. Martinez, DH
2023 Statline: 113G, slashed .271/.321/.572, OPS .893, OPS+ 134, 1.9 rWAR
Martinez was still a productive middle of the order bat in his age 35 season for the Dodgers after signing a 1 year 10m contract with them last season. He's been an all star the past 5 full seasons but can't really play the field anymore and a fair comparison at this point in his career is Nelson Cruz, who just retired after his age 42 season and 19th overall. Martinez's mind is arguably more valuable than his bat, as he has perfected his swing through analytics and has fond a balance between launch angle and quality contact that many teams have been trying to copy. Aditionally, Mookie Betts credited him for helping him take his offense to the next level in 2018, the year he won MVP
Prediction: Diamondbacks, 3 years 36m
A reunion for J.D. Martinez and the Diamondbacks make sense for both parties. The Diamondbacks have some money to spend as they employ a very young roster with most players in arbitration or on pre-arbitration deals. Their youth also allows them to afford having the DH spot of their lineup locked up by one player and Martinez can mentor the young DBacks hitters and help with their development while being a productive middle of the lineup bat for a team that is looking to build off a surprisingly quick rebuild in which they made the World Series.
18. Seth Lugo, SP
2023 Statline: 26 GS, 146.1IP, 3.57 ERA, 1.203 WHIP, 3.83 FIP
Lugo had a very solid season that was overshadow by the massive underachievement of the San Diego Padres. This was the first season since 2017 that Lugo was a full-time starter and he showed last season that he can be a middle of the rotation arm. The one concern with Lugo is he will be 34 years old next season and expecting him to pitch more than the 146 innings he pitched last year could be a stretch.
Prediction: Diamondbacks, 4 years 55m
The Diamondbacks lack of starting pitching depth was on full display this postseason. Outside of Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen, they didn't have many dependable options and turned to rookie Brandon Pfaadt and his ERA north of 5 (Pfaddt pitched extremely well but they would've been more comfortable with a most established arm). By adding the fourth year to this deal, Lugo gets the length he's looking for in what is probably his final chance for a multiyear contract, and the Diamondbacks benefit from a lower AAV.
17. Lucas Giolito, SP
2023 Statline: 33 GS, 184.1 IP, 4.88 ERA, 1.313 WHIP, 5.23 FIP
Giolito, a previous top pitching prospect has had an up and down career. From 2019-2021 he looked like a front of the rotation starter but outside of those three seasons have looked more like a back of the rotation innings eater. Giolito started the season with the White Sox and was pretty solid (3.79 ERA, 4.43 FIP) before being traded to the Angels at the deadline. The Angels eventually waived him and he was picked up by the Guardians and struggled with both teams having both an ERA and FIP above 6.8. However, Giolito is still only going to be 29 years old and has shown his upside
Prediction: Dodgers, 2 years 35m, 2026 team option for 24m
As mentioned in Part 1, the Dodgers have the best pitching coaches and analytics in the league and have shown they can maximize the potential of plenty of pitchers. We also mentioned that Dodgers SPs did not pitch a lot last season and Giolito has shown his ability to be a work horse, throwing over 170 innings in four of the past five full seasons. The Dodgers give Giolito the chance to work with their staff and the best chance to find his frontline form that he displayed previously, and in return they receive a team option albeit at a higher price. Giolito also will have another crack at Free Agency at age 31 (age 32 if the team option is exercised) to receive a multi-year contract.
16. Marcus Stroman, SP
2023: 27G (25 GS), 136.2 IP, 3.95 ERA, 1.259 WHIP, 3.58 FIP
Stroman, who just declined his player option for 21m, has battled injuries over his two years with the Cubs but has managed to pitch to a sub 4 ERA in both seasons. However, due to the injuries he hasn't pitched over 140 IP in either season and will be 33 next season. He's shown at times that he can be a solid number 2 starter and as a ground ball pitcher, should age rather gracefully if his body can hold up.
Prediction: Phillies, 4 years 75m
Stroman's age and injury history will limit his contract to some extent, but he still nearly gets 19m AAV from the Phillies who are potentially looking to fill the number 2 spot in the rotation if Aaron Nola departs. Stroman plays with his heart on his sleeve which Philly fans will love, and has shown he can handle the NL East during his time with the Mets.
Check Back on Friday (11/10) for parts 3 and 4!
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