The MLB offseason is officially underway! Teams have extended qualifying offers, options are being exercised, Managers and front offices are being remodeled and GMs, Presidents, and Owners everywhere are reviewing the 2023 season and finalizing their offseason plans. The easiest and quickest way to improve a team is via Free Agency so to kick off our MLB content this offseason, we're going to predict the landing spots and contracts of our top 25 free agents across five articles this week. All stats are curtesy of Baseball Reference and all contract information was found on Spotrac.
Honorable Mentions
These six players were either close to making the top 25 or are prime bounceback candidates that could use a change of scenery.
Clayton Kershaw: back to the Dodgers. This is pretty much a given but he will miss a good chunk of the season
Luis Severino: Signs with the Royals, taking a similar route to ex-teammate Aroldis Chapman. He was a legitimate ace at one point in time before being plagued by injuries and having a terrible 2023 season.
Michael Lorenzen: Signs with the Cardinals who haven't hid the fact that they've been looking for pitching.
James Paxton: Signs with the Astros. They can turn him into the valuable swing man they love which will also control his workload to protect him from injury.
David Robertson: Reunites with the Yankees to provide some valuable veteran leadership and championship experience that the bullpen and staff could benefit from.
Gio Urshela: Signs with the Dodgers to replace Amed Rosario. Has the flexibility to bounce between Third, Shortstop, and Second which the Dodgers love to utilize.
Free Agents 25-21
25. Aroldis Chapman, RP
2023 Statline: 61 Games, 6 Saves, 58.1 IP, 3.09 ERA, 1.241 WHIP, 2.52 FIP
Chapman started the season with the Royals before being traded to the Rangers shortly into the season after showing he still could be a dominant reliever. At 35 years old he still possesses one of the best fastballs in the world and was crucial to the Texas Rangers this season.
Prediction: Twins, 2 years 35m
This is a slightly more expensive contract that Kenley Janson (2yrs 32m) received last offseason from the Red Sox. Chapman is better than Kenley was going into last season thus gets the slight pay raise. The Twins could use some bullpen help after ranking 15th in bullpen ERA in 2023, and the opportunity to pair the flame throwing Chapman with the flame throwing Jhoan Duran would give the Twins plenty of options to close out games.
24. Amed Rosario, SS
2023 Statline: 142G, slashed .263/.305/.378, OPS .683, OPS+ 89, 0.9 rWAR
Rosario started the season with the Cleveland Guardians before being traded to the Dodgers at the trade deadline. Rosario is still relatively young and will be 29 years old next season, giving him a chance at cashing in on a bigger contract down the line. He has a career OPS+ of 95 and provides average defense at a premium position.
Prediction: Marlins, 2 years 12m with a mutual option for 9m and 1m buyout for year 3
Rosario was a replacement level player last season and took a step back offensively from his career average, keeping him out of the race for a long term contract and making him a perfect match for the fiscally stingy Marlins. The Marlins last year trotted Joey Wendle out as their main SS and he finished with a rWAR of -0.2 and will be 34 next season. Rosario would be an upgrade over Wendle and provide flexibility, as he has the ability to slide over to second base.
23. Kevin Kiermaier, CF
2023 Statline: 129G, .265/.322/.419, OPS .741, OPS+ 104, 3.9 rWAR
Kiermaier, mostly known for his defense, is coming off a 1 year, 9 million deal with the Blue Jays that he easily outperformed. At the age of 33 he had his third best season and won his 4th gold glove in CF putting him in a position to get one last solid contract.
Prediction: Yankees, 3 years 35m
The Yankees previously tried to add an elite defender in CF when they traded for Harrison Bader at the 2022 deadline and they're also in need of lefty bats to help balance their lineup. Kiermaier fills both of these needs for them and can be a stopgap until top prospect Jasson Dominguez returns from UCL surgery. Even once Dominguez returns, Kiermaier will be a valuable contributor as his OPS should increase in the lefty friendly Yankee Stadium.
22. Rhys Hoskins, 1B
Missed all of 2023 due to ACL surgery in Spring Training
Hoskins was unfortunate enough to get hurt during Spring Training of his contract year and now faces an offseason of uncertainty. Hoskins isn't a spring chicken anymore and will be 31 going into the 2024 season but could still be a valuable power bat in the middle of most teams lineups.
Prediction: Guardians, 1 year 17m with a player option for 17m in 2025
Extremely similar to the contract the Guardians gave Josh Bell last offseason, the only difference is this is 500K more each year. This deal gives Rhys and the Guardians flexibility and is a win-win for both parties. If Rhys has a good year he can opt out and try to cash in on a big 5 year contract next season, and if he struggles or gets hurt he can opt in and give himself another year to prove he can still be the impact righty hes been for the Phillies. The Guardians have the flexibility to trade Hoskins at the deadline if they're struggling or keep him and still have plenty of financial flexibility in the future.
21. Jack Flaherty, SP
2023 Statline: 29G (27GS), 144.1 IP, 4.99 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 4.36 FIP
Flaherty started the season relatively well for the Cardinals before being traded to the Orioles at the trade deadline. He struggled with the Orioles pitching to a 6.75 ERA in 9 games and missing some starts due to arm soreness. His arm soreness isn't anything new as hes battled injuries most of his career but will still only be 28 next season.
Prediction: Dodgers, 1 year 12m with 12m vesting option for 2025 with a 2m buyout
The Dodgers looked to add starting pitching at the trade deadline and that still remains a big question mark for them going into 2024. Kershaw led the team with 131.2IP and nobody started more than 22 games for the Dodgers. The Dodgers also have been very successful at maximizing pitcher's potential and can potentially help Jack Flaherty reach the Ace potential he displayed his rookie and sophomore season.
Come back tomorrow for free agent predictions for our 20th-16th ranked free agents!
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