MLB Free Agents Part 2: #20-16

As promised part 2 of our free agent predictions is here! We predict the landing spot of an elite power hitter and three starting pitchers in this one.  If you missed part 1 check it out in our last blog post where we went over 25-21 and some honorable mentions. All stats are curtesy of Baseball Reference and all contract information was found on Spotrac.  Part 3 and 4 will be dropping Friday! 

Free Agents 20-16

20. Jordan Hicks, RP

2023 Statline: 63G, 12 saves, 65.2 IP, 3.29 ERA, 1.355WHIP, 3.23FIP

Hicks started the season with the Cardinals before being dealt to the Blue Jays at the trade deadline.  He actually pitched better for the Blue Jays down the stretch pitching for a 2.63 ERA over 24IP.  Hicks is one of the youngest players on the market this season and will only be 27 next season, and he is also one of the hardest throwers in baseball, consistently topping 100MPH with his sinker.  Hicks ranks in the 83 percentile in K% and 96 percentile in GB% (per Baseball Savant), but struggles with command at times leading to plenty of free passes.  Overall he's a young elite back of the bullpen arm but has yet to have the opportunity to be the main closer on a team, limiting his contract upside.

Prediction: Marlins, 5 years 60m

This is a pretty hefty contract by Marlins standards but given the surplus of young, cost controlled starting pitchers at their disposal they can afford to spend a little extra on a reliever.  Marlins were looking for bullpen help at the trade deadline when they traded for David Robertson from the Mets, and Hicks can slide into the closer role that was vacated by Robertson's poor performance and now free agency.  Hicks will also be a compliment to the surplus of hard throwing lefties in the Marlins bullpen such as A.J Puk and Tanner Scott.

19. J.D. Martinez, DH

2023 Statline: 113G, slashed .271/.321/.572, OPS .893, OPS+ 134, 1.9 rWAR

Martinez was still a productive middle of the order bat in his age 35 season for the Dodgers after signing a 1 year 10m contract with them last season.  He's been an all star the past 5 full seasons but can't really play the field anymore and a fair comparison at this point in his career is Nelson Cruz, who just retired after his age 42 season and 19th overall. Martinez's mind is arguably more valuable than his bat, as he has perfected his swing through analytics and has fond a balance between launch angle and quality contact that many teams have been trying to copy.  Aditionally, Mookie Betts credited him for helping him take his offense to the next level in 2018, the year he won MVP

Prediction: Diamondbacks, 3 years 36m

A reunion for J.D. Martinez and the Diamondbacks make sense for both parties.  The Diamondbacks have some money to spend as they employ a very young roster with most players in arbitration or on pre-arbitration deals.  Their youth also allows them to afford having the DH spot of their lineup locked up by one player and Martinez can mentor the young DBacks hitters and help with their development while being a productive middle of the lineup bat for a team that is looking to build off a surprisingly quick rebuild in which they made the World Series.

18. Seth Lugo, SP

2023 Statline: 26 GS, 146.1IP, 3.57 ERA, 1.203 WHIP, 3.83 FIP

Lugo had a very solid season that was overshadow by the massive underachievement of the San Diego Padres.  This was the first season since 2017 that Lugo was a full-time starter and he showed last season that he can be a middle of the rotation arm.  The one concern with Lugo is he will be 34 years old next season and expecting him to pitch more than the 146 innings he pitched last year could be a stretch.

Prediction: Diamondbacks, 4 years 55m

The Diamondbacks lack of starting pitching depth was on full display this postseason.  Outside of Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen, they didn't have many dependable options and turned to rookie Brandon Pfaadt and his ERA north of 5 (Pfaddt pitched extremely well but they would've been more comfortable with a most established arm).  By adding the fourth year to this deal, Lugo gets the length he's looking for in what is probably his final chance for a multiyear contract, and the Diamondbacks benefit from a lower AAV.

17. Lucas Giolito, SP

2023 Statline: 33 GS, 184.1 IP, 4.88 ERA, 1.313 WHIP, 5.23 FIP

Giolito, a previous top pitching prospect has had an up and down career.  From 2019-2021 he looked like a front of the rotation starter but outside of those three seasons have looked more like a back of the rotation innings eater.  Giolito started the season with the White Sox and was pretty solid (3.79 ERA, 4.43 FIP) before being traded to the Angels at the deadline.  The Angels eventually waived him and he was picked up by the Guardians and struggled with both teams having both an ERA and FIP above 6.8.  However, Giolito is still only going to be 29 years old and has shown his upside 

Prediction: Dodgers, 2 years 35m, 2026 team option for 24m

As mentioned in Part 1, the Dodgers have the best pitching coaches and analytics in the league and have shown they can maximize the potential of plenty of pitchers.  We also mentioned that Dodgers SPs did not pitch a lot last season and Giolito has shown his ability to be a work horse, throwing over 170 innings in four of the past five full seasons.  The Dodgers give Giolito the chance to work with their staff and the best chance to find his frontline form that he displayed previously, and in return they receive a team option albeit at a higher price.  Giolito also will have another crack at Free Agency at age 31 (age 32 if the team option is exercised) to receive a multi-year contract.

16. Marcus Stroman, SP

2023: 27G (25 GS), 136.2 IP, 3.95 ERA, 1.259 WHIP, 3.58 FIP

Stroman, who just declined his player option for 21m, has battled injuries over his two years with the Cubs but has managed to pitch to a sub 4 ERA in both seasons.  However, due to the injuries he hasn't pitched over 140 IP in either season and will be 33 next season.  He's shown at times that he can be a solid number 2 starter and as a ground ball pitcher, should age rather gracefully if his body can hold up.  

Prediction: Phillies, 4 years 75m

Stroman's age and injury history will limit his contract to some extent, but he still nearly gets 19m AAV from the Phillies who are potentially looking to fill the number 2 spot in the rotation if Aaron Nola departs.  Stroman plays with his heart on his sleeve which Philly fans will love, and has shown he can handle the NL East during his time with the Mets. 

Check Back on Friday (11/10) for parts 3 and 4!

MLB Free Agent Predictions Part 1: Honorable mentions and #25-21

The MLB offseason is officially underway! Teams have extended qualifying offers, options are being exercised, Managers and front offices are being remodeled and GMs, Presidents, and Owners everywhere are reviewing the 2023 season and finalizing their offseason plans.  The easiest and quickest way to improve a team is via Free Agency so to kick off our MLB content this offseason, we're going to predict the landing spots and contracts of our top 25 free agents across five articles this week.  All stats are curtesy of Baseball Reference and all contract information was found on Spotrac.  

Honorable Mentions

These six players were either close to making the top 25 or are prime bounceback candidates that could use a change of scenery.

Clayton Kershaw: back to the Dodgers.  This is pretty much a given but he will miss a good chunk of the season

Luis Severino: Signs with the Royals, taking a similar route to ex-teammate Aroldis Chapman.  He was a legitimate ace at one point in time before being plagued by injuries and having a terrible 2023 season. 

Michael Lorenzen: Signs with the Cardinals who haven't hid the fact that they've been looking for pitching.

James Paxton: Signs with the Astros.  They can turn him into the valuable swing man they love which will also control his workload to protect him from injury.

David Robertson: Reunites with the Yankees to provide some valuable veteran leadership and championship experience that the bullpen and staff could benefit from.

Gio Urshela: Signs with the Dodgers to replace Amed Rosario.  Has the flexibility to bounce between Third, Shortstop, and Second which the Dodgers love to utilize.

Free Agents 25-21

25. Aroldis Chapman, RP

2023 Statline: 61 Games, 6 Saves, 58.1 IP, 3.09 ERA, 1.241 WHIP, 2.52 FIP

Chapman started the season with the Royals before being traded to the Rangers shortly into the season after showing he still could be a dominant reliever.  At 35 years old he still possesses one of the best fastballs in the world and was crucial to the Texas Rangers this season.

Prediction: Twins, 2 years 35m 

This is a slightly more expensive contract that Kenley Janson (2yrs 32m) received last offseason from the Red Sox.  Chapman is better than Kenley was going into last season thus gets the slight pay raise.  The Twins could use some bullpen help after ranking 15th in bullpen ERA in 2023, and the opportunity to pair the flame throwing Chapman with the flame throwing Jhoan Duran would give the Twins plenty of options to close out games.

24. Amed Rosario, SS

2023 Statline: 142G, slashed .263/.305/.378, OPS .683, OPS+ 89, 0.9 rWAR

Rosario started the season with the Cleveland Guardians before being traded to the Dodgers at the trade deadline. Rosario is still relatively young and will be 29 years old next season, giving him a chance at cashing in on a bigger contract down the line. He has a career OPS+ of 95 and provides average defense at a premium position.

Prediction: Marlins, 2 years 12m with a mutual option for 9m and 1m buyout for year 3

Rosario was a replacement level player last season and took a step back offensively from his career average, keeping him out of the race for a long term contract and making him a perfect match for the fiscally stingy Marlins.  The Marlins last year trotted Joey Wendle out as their main SS and he finished with a rWAR of -0.2 and will be 34 next season.  Rosario would be an upgrade over Wendle and provide flexibility, as he has the ability to slide over to second base.

23. Kevin Kiermaier, CF

2023 Statline: 129G, .265/.322/.419, OPS .741, OPS+ 104, 3.9 rWAR

Kiermaier, mostly known for his defense, is coming off a 1 year, 9 million deal with the Blue Jays that he easily outperformed.  At the age of 33 he had his third best season and won his 4th gold glove in CF putting him in a position to get one last solid contract.

Prediction: Yankees, 3 years 35m

The Yankees previously tried to add an elite defender in CF when they traded for Harrison Bader at the 2022 deadline and they're also in need of lefty bats to help balance their lineup.  Kiermaier fills both of these needs for them and can be a stopgap until top prospect Jasson Dominguez returns from UCL surgery.  Even once Dominguez returns, Kiermaier will be a valuable contributor as his OPS should increase in the lefty friendly Yankee Stadium.  

22. Rhys Hoskins, 1B

Missed all of 2023 due to ACL surgery in Spring Training

Hoskins was unfortunate enough to get hurt during Spring Training of his contract year and now faces an offseason of uncertainty.  Hoskins isn't a spring chicken anymore and will be 31 going into the 2024 season but could still be a valuable power bat in the middle of most teams lineups.

Prediction: Guardians, 1 year 17m with a player option for 17m in 2025

Extremely similar to the contract the Guardians gave Josh Bell last offseason, the only difference is this is 500K more each year.  This deal gives Rhys and the Guardians flexibility and is a win-win for both parties.  If Rhys has a good year he can opt out and try to cash in on a big 5 year contract next season, and if he struggles or gets hurt he can opt in and give himself another year to prove he can still be the impact righty hes been for the Phillies.  The Guardians have the flexibility to trade Hoskins at the deadline if they're struggling or keep him and still have plenty of financial flexibility in the future.

21. Jack Flaherty, SP

2023 Statline: 29G (27GS), 144.1 IP, 4.99 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 4.36 FIP

Flaherty started the season relatively well for the Cardinals before being traded to the Orioles at the trade deadline.  He struggled with the Orioles pitching to a 6.75 ERA in 9 games and missing some starts due to arm soreness.  His arm soreness isn't anything new as hes battled injuries most of his career but will still only be 28 next season.

Prediction: Dodgers, 1 year 12m with 12m vesting option for 2025 with a 2m buyout

The Dodgers looked to add starting pitching at the trade deadline and that still remains a big question mark for them going into 2024.  Kershaw led the team with 131.2IP and nobody started more than 22 games for the Dodgers.  The Dodgers also have been very successful at maximizing pitcher's potential and can potentially help Jack Flaherty reach the Ace potential he displayed his rookie and sophomore season.  

Come back tomorrow for free agent predictions for our 20th-16th ranked free agents!