Wednesday, June 19, 2024

Mid-Season Awards Check-In, MVP CY Young and Rookie of the Year Favorites and updated predictions!


As the MLB season approaches the halfway mark, it's time to take a look at the front-runners for the major individual awards. The current odds and rankings are based on the consensus odds on action.com.

MVP

American League

The clear favorite for the AL MVP award is Aaron Judge (-125) of the Yankees. Judge is simply the best player in baseball this season, and he seems to have avoided a major injury after getting hit on the hand last night. When healthy, Judge is the best hitter on the planet and is arguably doing better than his historic 62-home run season in 2022. His move to center field, a premium defensive position, only bolsters his MVP case. This is probably the easiest award to predict right now - unless Judge gets injured, the trophy is his.

There are some other worthy contenders, like Gunnar Henderson (+450), the slugging shortstop for the great Orioles team, Bobby Witt Jr. (+500), who might be the best all-around player in the majors right now, and Juan Soto (+500), arguably the best pure hitter in baseball. They're all having phenomenal seasons, but looks like they're all competing for a second-place finish.


National League 

The player who would win this award right now is Mookie Betts (+2000).  Unfortunately for Betts, he is out for 6-8 weeks after getting hit on the hand, and has completely changed the race.

In the wide-open NL MVP race, Shohei Ohtani (+160) is the favorite, but despite being an above-average baserunner and hitter, it's hard to see voters giving the award to a designated hitter who will never play the field this season.

Bryce Harper (+300) has been the best player on the Phillies, who have the best record in the NL. My preseason pick Fernando Tatis Jr. (+1000) is finally heating up after a slow start, though the Padres need to play better for him to be seriously considered. Marcell Ozuna (+1000) and Freddie Freeman (+1200) are also contenders, but Ozuna faces the same dilemma as Ohtani as a primary DH, and Freeman probably won't win the award unless he starts hitting better than Ohtani.


CY Young

American League

Tarik Skubal (+160) of the Tigers is the AL Cy Young favorite, more than living up to the offseason hype that pegged him as a breakout candidate. Tanner Houck (+1200) has also emerged, providing the Red Sox with a much-needed consistent ace, though Boston's potential playoff miss could hurt his chances.

While Skubal and Houck are the leading candidates at the moment, Cole Ragans (+1600) of the Royals is an intriguing dark horse if he can lead Kansas City to an unexpected division title, something that could give him an edge over the other worthy candidates with the voters.

Other contenders include Corbin Burnes (+270), whose incredibly high expectations constantly overshadow his strong performance. Garrett Crochet (+1500) has been electric but is hindered by the White Sox' laughingstock season. Luis Castillo (+1500), has been solid, but its easy to argue he isn't the best starter on the Mariners (who have a stellar rotation).


National League 

Ranger Suarez (+325) has been nothing short of phenomenal for the Phillies this season, turning their rotation into a strength. However, he faces stiff competition from Shota Imanaga (+574) of the Cubs. Imanaga has been utterly dominant, allowing more than two earned runs just once this entire season.

If Imanaga keeps up his incredible performance, he could capture both the NL Cy Young and the Rookie of the Year award, an impressive and rare feat. Suarez, despite being phenomenal also has to compete with teammate Zach Wheeler (+450) for the perception of being the Phillies' best pitcher. Don't count out veterans like Tyler Glasnow (+450) of the Dodgers, who has exceeded expectations, or Chris Sale (+1200) of the Braves if he can stay healthy.

The wild card is Paul Skenes (+4583), the highly touted rookie who has been impressive since his call-up with the Pirates, showing a big arm and unique look that fans love. If Skenes continues to improve and consistently locate his secondary pitches, there's a very real chance he will steal not only the Rookie of the Year but also the Cy Young award from the favorites by season's end.


Rookie of the Year

American League

Luis Gil (-185) of the Yankees is the overwhelming favorite for AL Rookie of the Year honors. Gil would likely be considered a Cy Young candidate if he wasn't expected to eventually move to the bullpen later this season to keep him fresh for the postseason. He has simply been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season

The A's Mason Miller (+300) has excelled as an elite reliever in his rookie season with nearly unhittable stuff. Even if Gil misses an extended period, it's hard to see Miller overtaking him for this award, as elite starters are highly favored over even top relievers.


National League

As mentioned in the Cy Young section, Shota Imanaga (+107) of the Cubs is the favorite for NL Rookie of the Year, but the surging Paul Skenes (+190) of the Pirates is quickly closing the gap and could pull off a double-award sweep of Rookie of the Year and Cy Young if his elite stuff and dominance continue to develop as some expect. 

If the season ended today, it'd be Shota.  Lucky for us, it doesn't and this is going to be an exciting race.

With several tight races and potential late-season surges ahead, the second half of the MLB season promises to be an exciting one as players jockey for position in these major award races.


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