MLB hitters are facing unprecedented challenges this season. The league-wide OPS has plummeted to its lowest point in 10 years and the second-lowest since 1992. This dramatic shift begs the question: What's behind this offensive downturn?
The answer might be simple. Frankly, pitchers are better than they have been. New technology and a better understanding of physics has created more room for development for pitchers in regards to biomechanics and their ability to manipulate the ball. Front offices, scouts, pitching coaches and coaches have recognized two main attributes that increase a pitchers ability to get hitters out: spin and velocity
Spin: The New Frontier
A few years ago we had the "sticky stuff pandemic" where it was exposed that pitchers were consistently using foreign substances like spider tack to get a better grip on the baseball that would coincidentally lead to higher spin rates and nastier pitches. MLB has since enforced rule 3.01, in hopes that it would level an uneven playing field. The opposite seems to have happened.
The stats back up that pitchers are now more dominant than when "Sticky Stuff" was being distributed like sunflower seeds across clubhouses. The Sticky Stuff ban is likely a major reason for this, as pitchers had to naturally improve since they couldn't rely on artificial means to increase their spin rate.
Without being able to increase their spin rate, pitchers shifted their focus to spin efficiency. A 2000 RPM fastball with 80% spin efficiency is less effective than a 1900 RPM fastball with 90% spin efficiency. The reason for this is that the more spin efficient pitch, will see greater benefits from the spin. The 1900 RPM fastball will have more run and rise, making it tougher for hitters to hit. If we're comparing two curveballs with the same spin rate but different spin efficiency, we'll see the more efficient spinning curveball have a sharper break.
The next step tying this together is pitch shape. We know that a ball moves based off the spin, a top-spinning curveball will drop, a back-spinning 4-seam fastball will appear to rise, an east to west spinning pitch will break to the left, etc. Pitchers are custom building their arsenal, looking at their pitches and trying different grips and arm angles to make their pitches spin more efficiently and therefore break more.
The main thing each pitcher has to consider is what is their arm slot, and what pitches synergize well with their arm slot. For example:
- An over-the-top arm angle leads to a high spin efficiency 4-seam fastball, but a less efficient two-seamer. It also leads to a devastating curveball and solid slider, but not a sweeper. Look at Clayton Kershaw, who's dominated with his fastball/curveball and then fastball/slider/curveball combo.
- A side-arm pitcher can naturally have an elite slider/sweeper as well as a sinker, like Adam Ottavino.
This understanding and ability to specialize on specific pitch shapes leads to every pitcher having at least one high breaking pitch. Every pitcher now has at least a decent fastball, but also a high-spin, devastating breaking ball or disappearing changeup that hitters have to respect. Some pitchers have been able to create a complete arsenal of 3+ pitches with elite movement, giving the hitter 3 different options to respect and be wary of when trying to get a hit.
Velocity and the Max Effort Mentality
The average fastball velocity this season is over 94 mph, the highest of all time, and has consistently been trending up for years. Each bullpen is packed with 6+ pitchers sitting in the high 90s. This has changed the strategy of pitching.
If you go back even just 5 years, and you'd see starters consistently throwing 100+ pitches a game, throwing 6 solid innings, and looking like they could go even further. Now, getting 5 quality innings out of a pitcher is seen as a good start. The main reason? Pitchers are now encouraged to throw as hard as they can, for as long as they can, until they can't be effective anymore.
Thanks to this mentality, starters also unleash their whole arsenal at hitters, not worried about going deep into a games. In one at bat a hitter can see 4 different pitch types in 4 different locations. The pitcher is showing their entire hand the first two times they come up to the plate every game.
This is why when hitters face a pitcher for the third time in a game, their OPS skyrockets – they've seen everything to know about a pitcher's strategy as well as their arsenal twice. They have nothing left to keep a hitter off-balance.
To look how different today's approach is, let's flashback 13 years to 2011 and look at how Verlander (who won MVP this year) was able to go deep in games while still pitching at a high-level:
Verlander would come out and start the game sitting in the low 90s with his fastball despite having the ability to dial it up to triple digits. This not only conserved energy for later in the game (by not throwing max effort every pitch), but also gave him an ace hidden up his sleeve ready whenever he needed it--dialing up to a higher velocity the hitter wouldn't expect when needed. Verlander also would typically attack the batting order a different way each time through the order.
The first time through he might start everybody off with fastballs and try putting them away with his curveball. The second time he would pitch backwards, starting hitters --who are expecting a fastball since he did that the first time-- with a curveball. The third time through he would mix in another pitch, a slider, changeup, cutter, giving the hitters something else to worry about that they haven't seen yet.
This approach and mentality is dying off, as spin rates and velocity reign supreme.
The Hitter's Dilemma
The current issue is that hitters have to be ready for fastballs that are faster than ever, and breaking ball/changeups that break more than ever. If you sit on the fastball, you'll probably whiff on the offspeed pitches. If you sit on the offspeed stuff, a pitcher will blow the fastball right by you.
As pitchers continue to push the boundaries of velocity and spin efficiency, hitters must adapt to this new landscape or risk being left behind. The question is....how?
