The Mets Mess

When Steve Cohen purchased the Mets for a record-breaking 2.6 billion dollars in the winter of 2020, Met fans everywhere felt a sense of excitement they’d never felt before as their new owner had deep pockets, enabling them to compete for the top free agents.   Uncle Stevie went on to add to that excitement by stating he expected to win a World Series in the next three to five years.  We’re officially in year four of the Steven Cohen era, and unfortunately for Mets fans the product on the field is something they’re all too familiar with.

In his time as owner, Uncle Stevie has flexed his financial strength, signing a plethora of stars like Francisco Lindor (10 years, $341 million), Edwin Diaz (5 years, $102 million), Max Scherzer (3 years, $130 million) and Justin Verlander (2 years, $86.6 million) to record-breaking deals. But injuries and underperformance quickly derailed those grand plans, with Scherzer lasting half his contract and Verlander lasting half a season before being traded at last year’s deadline.

With hopes of immediately contending dashed, the Mets entered 2024 intending to retool while giving their cadre of top prospects some seasoning in the big leagues. Instead, the team has been downright unwatchable, the $300 million roster's big names and veterans continue to falter, and unless a couple of things change, this season will be worse than expected

Offensive Woes

On paper, the Mets' lineup looked pretty good, with stalwarts like Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, J.D. Martinez, Francisco Alvarez, and former batting champ Jeff McNeil populating the top 6 in the order. But the results have been abysmal, with the Mets' offense ranking in the bottom third of most major statistical categories like runs (20th), walks (20th), strikeouts (19th) and batting average (23rd).

While the power numbers have been decent with 58 home runs (14th in MLB), the team's inability to simply put the ball in play has handcuffed its scoring punch. Dreadful batting averages hampered by a lowly .273 BABIP (28th in MLB) have sabotaged the Mets' ability to drive in runs consistently. However, their strong 39.7% hard-hit rate (12th in MLB) implies their struggles have been more a product of poor batted-ball luck than any fundamental lack of talent, giving hope that batting averages could rebound.

Pitching Performance

The Mets' pitching staff hasn't been terrible, ranking a mediocre 18th in ERA (4.12) while racking up the 8th-most strikeouts in baseball (487). Wildness has been a major issue, as the Mets lead all of MLB having already walked 225 batters - a cringe-worthy total exacerbating their bloated 2.15 K:BB ratio that ranks 3rd-worst in the majors.

While the middle-of-the-pack .287 BABIP allowed suggests the starting rotation hasn't been plagued by tremendous misfortune, command woes have still submarined their effectiveness. The bullpen's 10 blown saves (tied for 2nd-most) stings even more with elite closer Edwin Diaz's implosion serving as the primary culprit.

After a historic 2022 campaign, Diaz has been an unmitigated disaster in the second year of his $102 million contract. His 5.40 ERA is terrible, underlined by declining metrics like a ghastly 12th percentile barrel rate that reveals opposing hitters have been squarely hitting his wipeout stuff. The right-hander's once utterly dominant fastball and slider have been beaten routinely, with both pitches producing below-average run values. His velocity (96 mph), whiff rate (27.9%), chase rate (27.6%) and strikeout rate (27.9%) are all down from 2022's utterly dominant form.

With veterans Luis Severino (3.22 ERA) and Sean Manaea (3.16 ERA) expected to be shipped out ahead of the trade deadline for future assets, the Mets may have to lean even harder on a pitching staff that lacks reliable arms.

Big Name Struggles

Several of the Mets' highest-priced and most recognizable players have failed to live up to expectations, contributing greatly to the team's disappointing performance.

Francisco Lindor, who has been criminally underrated the past few years, has had plenty of struggles to start the 2024 campaign.  Lindor’s .211/.279/.372 battling line and -7 run value as a hitter wouldn’t be acceptable even if he wasn’t the highest paid shortstop ever.  The good news though is that his xBA and xSLG ar .265 and .459 respectively, suggesting positive regression is coming.  

$20 million man Pete Alonso has also failed to deliver commensurate production so far. Expected to be one of the Mets' top trade chips, Alonso's .231/.308/.453 batting line for a .761 OPS is underwhelming, especially considering his lofty career .822 OPS. Alonso's underlying metrics paint a confusing picture - his xSLG of around .470 matches his current slugging percentage, while his .253 lines up well with his .249 career batting average. His slugging percentage gets even more interesting when considering he barrels the ball at an elite 87th percentile rate, but currently boasts a lower-than-usual 37th percentile 90.3 mph average exit velocity.

Brandon Nimmo's .214 batting average looks brutal, but his stellar .355 OBP and .735 OPS reveal he's still reached base at a high clip thanks to his elite 97th percentile 22.9% walk rate. Nimmo's xBA of .274 along with an xSLG over .500 implies he's been victimized by poor batted ball luck despite maintaining quality of contact (86th percentile barrel rate; 65th percentile hard-hit rate).  However, until Nimmo’s actual results start to resemble his expected results, it will remain a disappointing year for a player with a $20.5 million AAV.

A different story has unfolded for Jeff McNeil, who has plummeted from winning the 2022 NL Batting title to being one of the least productive qualified hitters in 2024. McNeil's horrid .630 OPS is backed up by bottom-of-the-barrel advanced stats in the bottom 15th percentile .316 xSLG,  86.5 mph average exit velocity, 22.9% hard-hit rate. After looking like a blossoming star, McNeil has completely cratered into being a shell of his former self with decreased bat speed and a lack of impactful batted balls.

The widespread lack of production from these high-priced pillars has been an albatross weighing down the Mets' overall offensive output and squandered the immense upside of their star-studded roster construction. While some like Lindor and Nimmo have been victimized by poor batted-ball luck, others like McNeil are showing disconcerting declines that may force the organization to re-evaluate its perceived core ahead of 2025.

What's Next?

Playoffs were always a stretch for this Mets team, but given their performance so far this season the focus has already shifted to being sellers ahead of the trade deadline. They'll likely move veteran rentals like Severino, Manaea, Alonso, and DH J.D. Martinez for any package of prospects they can acquire to restock their farm system and continue building championship cores for the future.

The true evaluation period begins now.  Lindor still provides elite defense and baserunning at a premium position but the Mets need to evaluate other veterans such as McNeil and Nimmo as well as top prospects like Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, Jose Butto, and Christian Scott to determine if they can contribute in the coming years, or if they need to look for replacements this offseason.

Luckily for the Mets, owner Cohen's willingness to spend massively on payroll gives them a significant leg up over most of their competitors in their quest to build another juggernaut roster. If the Mets can play well enough to attract free agents (like Juan Soto), Uncle Stevie will open the checkbook.  Unfortunately for them, no top free agent will want to commit to their team for an extended period until they are sure the Mets can consistently compete for a World Series.