2025 Team Previews: Washington Nationals

2024 Recap

Record: 71-91, 4th in NL East, Missed Playoffs

The Nationals finished 2024 with the exact same record as 2023, a rare feat.  However, the way this season ended, National fans have hope for the first time since the franchise started their rebuild in 2022 with the trade of Juan Soto to the Padres (as well as the previous years deadline deal of Trea Turner and Max Scherzer to the Dodgers).

This 71 win season included positive development for some of the key returns in those trades, with CJ Abrams making the all star team and Mackenzie Gore posting the best ERA and FIP of his career.  Additionally, star prospects James Woods (also acquired in the Juan Soto trade), and 2023 2nd overall pick Dylan Crews provided some electric moments in their limited action this season.  

24 year-olds Jacob Young (CF) and Luis Garcia Jr. (2B) produced over 2.0 bWAR each, and appear to be nice supplementary pieces around the Nationals young core. 

2025 Outlook

Key Additions:

• Jorge Lopez, RP
• Josh Bell, 1B
• Michael Soroka, SP
• Trevor Williams, SP
• Nathaniel Lowe, 1B

Key Departures:

• Kyle Finnegan, RP
• Tanner Rainey, RP
• Joey Meneses, 1B
• Patrick Corbin, SP
• Joey Gallo, 1B/OF

The two main departures from the Nationals this offseason are closer Kyle Finnegan and reliever Tanner Rainey, who combined to finish 88 games for the Nationals in 2024.  Finnegan had a strong season, finishing with 38 saves while pitching in 65 games for the Nats.  Resigning free agent Trevor Williams was a shrewd move for the team, as he was brilliant in his 13 starts this season (2.03 ERA, 13 starts). 

The depatures of Joey Meneses and Joey Gallo open up spots at 1B/DH for the newly acquired Nathaniel Lowe and Josh Bell, while the hope of Michael Soroka is to replace some of the 174 innings pitched by Patrick Corbin in 2024. The Nationals also signed Jorge Lopez to hopefully replace the departed Kyle Finnegan's production.

in 2025, the Nationals are looking for answers on their young core.  Offensively, this team is looking for reassurance that they have a solid core in James Woods, CJ Abrams and Dylan Crews and will look to see if either Jacob Young, Luis Garcia Jr., Kiebert Ruiz, and/or Nathaniel Lowe can join them as building blocks.  On the pitching front, the Nationals would love to see a bounceback year from Josiah Gray (injured for most of 2024) and another positive step forward from Mackenzie Gore.  They'll also look for Trevor Williams to pick up where he left off and see if any of Mitchell Parker, DJ Herz, Jackson Rutledge, or Jake Irvin can be future pieces in their rotation.

X-Factor: Development

The Nationals traded three all world players at the 2021 and 2022 trade deadlines and the majority of their return have made the big leagues in 2024.  Of those returns, nobody has lived up to their hype yet.  Mackenzie Gore has shown flashes of dominance, Josiah Gray was a solid pitcher in 2023, but that season appears more like an outlier than the expectation, especially coming off Tommy John surgery in 2024.

CJ Abrams has posted back to back 3.4 bWAR seasons, but is this his ceiling or is their another step he can take?  Dylan Crews and James Woods looked like superstars at times, but will they encounter a sophomore slump in 2025 or will they look like future MVP candidates that they're hyped up to be.

If their young players continue to develop, the Nationals could be a dark horse wild card team in the tough National League.

Offseason Grade and Prediction

The Nationals handled this offseason like a rebuilding team should.  They got some band-aids to fill the holes left from their departures and are going to give every their younger players every chance to prove they're building blocks. 

If James Woods and Dylan Crews continue their development at the Major League level, this could be one of the more fun teams to watch in 2025 as they get closer to competing in 2026 and beyond.

Offseason Grade:  B/B-

2025 Prediction: 4th in the NL East, Miss Playoffs

ICYM:

NL East Previews:

• Philadelphia Phillies 2025 Preview
• Atlanta Braves 2025 Preview
• New York Mets 2025 Preview

From NPB to MLB: Roki Sasaki and the Challenges of Transition

For the second consecutive offseason, a Japanese "Phenom" was available.  This time, it didn't cost $700m for his services. 

Roki Sasaki, was posted as an international amateur, making him only eligible to sign a minor league deal with a bonus from the teams international signing pool -- a marquee talent at a bargain price for the team that won the "Roki Sweepstakes".

The sweepstakes concluded last night, with Sasaki joining his fellow countrymen Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto on the Los Angeles Dodgers, adding to their wealth of Japanese talent and starting pitching.

Sasaki possesses a fastball that can touch triple digits, possibly the best splitter in the world, and a slider that should translate over to the MLB if he regains some velocity.  He first burst onto the scene in the last World Baseball Classic, where he was a key player for the Japanese team that won the championship. Over four professional seasons in the NPB, he posted an outstanding 30-15, a 2.02 ERA, a 0.988 WHIP, and 11.4 K/9 rate. 

Despite being labeled a "Phenom", expectations should be tempered for the 23 year old star.  Historically, Japanese pitchers often need an adjustment period when transitioning to the MLB.  Factors like increased competition, adapting to a five-man rotation versus the NPB's weekly rotation, and cultural changes can present challenges.

Let's examine how some highly regarded Japanese pitchers fared in their early MLB seasons.

Yu Darvish, Texas Rangers

Yu Darvish signed with the Rangers after they posted a $51.7 million fee to negotiate with him. Darvish agreed to a six-year, $56 million deal (up to $60 million with incentives), bringing the total investment to $107.7 million—the most spent on a Japanese player at the time.

In NPB, Darvish dominated for five consecutive seasons with an ERA under 2.00. His final season stat line was extraordinary: 28 starts, 18-6 record, 232 innings pitched, 1.44 ERA, six shutouts, and a 7.67 K:BB ratio.

However, Darvish needed time to acclimate in MLB. In his rookie season, he posted a 3.90 ERA and a 2.48 K:BB ratio. By his second season, he looked more like the ace Texas had signed, recording a 2.83 ERA and a 3.46 K:BB ratio.

Darvish has continuously been sought after by MLB contenders, and became the first Japanese pitcher with 2000 strikeouts in the MLB

Hiroki Kuroda, Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers signed Hiroki Kuroda in 2008 when he was 33 years old.  Despite his experience, Kuroda took time to find his groove.  In his rookie season he pitched to to a respectable 3.73 ERA across 183 IP.

Injuries slowed him down in 2009, limiting to 117 innings.  However, he rebounded in 2010, throwing 196.1 IP with a 3.39 ERA.  Kuroda became a reliable arm, starting five consecutive Opening Days for the Dodgers.

Masahiro Tanaka, New York Yankees

Tanaka signed a massive seven year, $155m (with a $20m posting fee) with the Yankees ahead of the 2014 season.  He was incredible in his first few starts, but suffered an injured UCL that limited him the rest of the season, but Tanaka still finished with 136.1 IP and a 2.77 ERA.  

After a step back in year 2, (154 IP, 3.51 ERA), Tanaka pitched the best season of his 7 year career in year 3, throwing almost 200 IP (199.2) with a 3.07 ERA.  

Other Notable Pitchers and Comparisons

Shohei Ohtani: His best pitching season was his third full season as a pitcher, but he's had to also focus on his hitting as well

Yusei Kikuchi: Kikuchi's last two seasons hes finally started to put it together, and was rewarded with a nice contract from teh Angels this year

Yoshinobu Yamaoto: He had a much better year than a lot of people will admit (given his record contract for a pitcher) while also battling some injuries, look for him to take a step forward in year 2

Kenta Maeda: Maeda seems like a bit of an outlier, with his first year being his best.  He's still pitching today and has put together a respectable career in the MLB.

Closing Thoughts

Transitioning from the NPB to the MLB isn't easy for anyone.  While the NPB is a highly competitive league, the MLB is the best in the world.  Add in other factors like a different pitching schedule, a different ball, language barriers, and being far from home compound the challenge of meeting lofty expectations.

Roki Sasaki has the potential to be the best pitcher in baseball, but let's not write him off immediately if he doesn't meet the lofty expectations in year one. He wouldn't be the first Japanese star to require an adjustment period -- and if history is any guide, we'll have to wait a bit to see him at his best.

2025 Team Previews: New York Mets

 

2024 Recap

Record: 89-73, 2nd in NL East, Eliminated in NLCS 

The Mets approached 2024 as a retooling year. After shipping off future hall of famers Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer at the 2023 trade deadline, David Stearns, Steve "Uncle Stevie" Cohen, and the rest of the Mets brass were looking to get answers on some of their younger prospects with an eye towards competing in 2025.  

Instead, the 2024 Mets flipped a switch in June and shocked just about everyone. They finished tied for second in the NL East, making the playoffs as a wild card team before advancing all the way to the NLCS (where they lost to the future champion Dodgers).  

The Mets' record from June 1st through the end of the season was a scorching 65-40 thanks to a resurgent Fransico Lindor, a pitching rotation that heavily outperformed expectations, and strong performances from Mark Vientos and Jose Iglesias.  The Mets accomplished this successful season despite a down year from star slugger Pete Alonso, and star closer Edwin Diaz.

2025 Outlook

Key Additions:

• Juan Soto, COF (Free Agent, 15 years, $765m)
• Griffin Canning, SP (Free Agent, 1 year $4.25m)
• Clay Holmes, RP/SP (Free Agent 3 years, $38m)
• Frankie Montas, SP (Free Agent 2 years, $17m)
• Sean Manaea, SP (Resigned in Free Agency, 3 years $75m)
• Jose Siri, OF (Trade With Tampa)

Key Departures:

• Pete Alonso, 1B (Free Agent)
• Luis Severino SP (Free Agent)
• Jose Iglesias, 2B (Free Agent)
• Jose Quintana, SP (Free Agent)
• Jesse Winker, COF (Free Agent)
• Harrison Bader, CF (Free Agent)
• Phil Maton, RP (Declined Club Option)
• Ryan Stanek, RP (Free Agent) 
• Adam Ottavino, RP (Free Agent)

The Mets signed THE free agent, Juan Soto, to a historic deal that could top $800m.  The future Hall-of-Famer and modern-day Ted Williams will join an offense that will again feature MVP Runner-Up Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, and Mark Vientos.  Juan Soto's defensive limitations could be mitigated by the trade acquisition of Jose Siri -- one of the best CF's in the sport.  The Mets also don't have a set DH, and can rotate Soto into the DH spot if needed.

It seems increasingly likely that Pete Alonso will return to the Mets on a shorter contract. He would be a great addition to this offensive core. In a down year in 2024, Alonso still slugged 34 home runs and would provide great protection for Juan Soto in the lineup as well as give the Mets another impact righty power threat.  There's currently a hole at 2nd base (created by the departure of Jose Iglesias) that will probably be filled by one of the Mets prospects, as outside of Alex Bregman there are no available free agents that move the needle.

The Mets starting rotation is losing 350 IP between Luis Severino and Jose Quintana's departure and will look to fill the rotation spots around Kodai Senga (returning from injury), Sean Manaea, and David Peterson with some combination of Clay Holmes (who they want to convert to a starter), Frankie Montas, and Griffin Canning.  Holmes has electric stuff but can struggle with command and might need to develop another pitch to handle lefty hitters properly.  Montas has dealt with injuries, but the Mets are hoping for a resurgent season from him.  Canning, realistically, is a depth piece who could make a spot start when needed.

X-Factor: Pitching, Pitching, more Pitching

The pitching staff needs more.  The bullpen could have some struggles again this season, especially if Edwin Diaz has a repeat of his 2024 season, as outside of Clay Holmes (who might be a starter) this team lacks proven back of the bullpen arms.  

Meanwhile, the rotation shouldn't strike fear into any contending team.  Kodai Senga missed practically all of 2024 with injuries and is on the wrong side of 30, it's fair to wonder what he has left in the tank.  Sean Manaea looked like a solid #2 pitcher after a mechanical tweak, but he will be 33 this season and will have to continue that success throughout a full season.  David Peterson had a great 2024, but outperformed his FIP by .7 runs, implying he could see some regression come 2025. Lastly, Frankie Montas hasn't looked like the potential front-of-the-rotation starter since dealing with numerous injuries and has limited upside.

Getting a true, proven ace like Corbin Burnes or a proven #2 in Max Fried would've surely pushed the offseason spending north of $1B, but would've given the Mets a cornerstone to build their pitching staff around.  

Offseason Grade and Prediction

The Juan Soto signing was a home run, not only for his production but also for what it meant to a fanbase that is tired of missing out on the biggest guys (Yamamoto to the Dodgers, Correa had injury concerns, etc.). However, the roster still has some holes and question marks.

Pete Alonso resigning would fill the void created by his departure as well as give the Mets another proven middle-of-the-order bat, but currently outside of Lindor and Soto, who is a proven threat on this team?  Vientos looked like he could be, but he's only done it once.  

As of now, the Mets plan is to build around this core and win on the margins, looking for value in players such as Jose Siri, Clay Holmes, and Frankie Montas similar to what they found in 2024 with Jose Iglesias, Luis Severino, and Jose Quintana.  

Despite the questions in the pitching staff and offensive consistency outside of Lindor and Soto, this team heading into 2025 is better than the 2024, version.  They're just not ready to take the crown from the Phillies yet. 

Offseason Grade:  B+

2025 Prediction: 2nd in the NL East, Wildcard Team

ICYM:

NL East Previews:

• Philadelphia Phillies 2025 Preview
• Atlanta Braves 2025 Preview

2025 Team Previews: Atlanta Braves

2024 Recap

Record: 89-73, 2nd in NL East, Eliminated in NLWS 

The 2024 season had a nightmarish start for the Braves. Ace Spencer Strider was lost for the season during his second start due to a bone fragment in his UCL, reigning MVP Ronald Acuña never got going and was lost to an ACL injury (the second in the past four seasons), catcher Sean Murphy didn't make it through opening day before suffering an oblique injury.

On top of this, stars like Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Michael Harris II, and Ozzie Albies regressed from their 2023 performances. 

Despite all this, the team still managed to win 89 games, an accomplishment that will be overshadowed by their recent dominance.  The team was driven by a dominant pitching staff (including Chris Sale's Cy Young Season) and an offense powered by DH Marcell Ozuna who finished 4th in MVP voting. 

Despite their overachieving, the Braves couldn't recreate their 2021 magic and were swept in the wildcard round 2-0 by a dangerous Padres team.

2025 Outlook

Key Additions:

• Bryan De La Cruz (1 year, $860k
• Nick Allen (Trade with Athletics)

Key Departures:

• Charlie Morton, SP (Free Agency)
• Max Fried, SP (Free Agency)
• AJ Minter, RP (Free Agency)
• Gio Urshela, IF (Free Agency)
• Travis d'Arnaud (Declined Club Option)
• Jorge Soler, COF/DH (Trade with Angels)

The Braves front office is one of the best in the sport their offensive core -- Austin Riley, Sean Murphy, Ronald Acuña Jr., Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris II, and Matt Olson -- is locked up for the foreseeable future.  However, all of these players had a down year and/or dealt with injuries in 2024 begging the question of which Braves offense will we see in 2025 -- the historic 2023 juggernaut or the underwhelming 2024 version.

The Braves strong rotation will be returning Cy Young winner Chris Sale, breakout pitcher Reynaldo Lopez, and star Spencer Strider (eventually), but will have to fill the voids left by Max Fried (174 IP) and Charlie Morton (165 IP).  The Braves have faith in their young pitchers, but those are two big shoes to fill.  The bullpen, another strength, remains largely the same.

Overall, the Braves have been a non-factor this offseason and will be relying mostly on bounce-back seasons from their stars to improve upon their 2024 campaign.  Bryan De La Cruz will probably take the Jorge Soler role on the team, and the Braves will rely on their young pitchers to replace the holes created by the departure of Max Fried and Charlie Morton.

Given their track record, its hard to bet against the Braves front office, but relying on unproven starters to replace proven veterans like Max Fried and Charlie Morton is unnerving.  The offense should be better, but the biggest thing for the Braves heading into 2025 is....

X-Factor: Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña Jr.'s return from Injury

The Braves managed to win the World Series in 2021 despite losing Acuña to his first ACL injury, but at the end of the day, this Braves team will only go as far as their stars take them.  It's common for players to struggle when they first return from an ACL injury (Acuña included), and it is fair to wonder how much production the Braves can rely on from a player who relies on their athleticism and struggled after his first ACL injury.

Strider, on the other hand, had his second major elbow surgery in the last five years and should return this summer.  Depending on how many rehab starts Strider gets, he might have some rust as he hasn't pitched consistently since the end of the 2023 season (excluding 2024 spring training).

Offseason Grade and Prediction

While the Braves need their stars to bounce back and play to the back of their baseball card, they also need Chris Sale and Marcel Ozuna to have a repeat of their 2024 seasons if they want to contend in a loaded NL.  Sale will be entering his age 36 season, and last year pitched 177 innings (his most since 2017) and made more than 20 starts for the first time since 2019.  Ozuna greatly outperformed his career averages and will be 34 next season.

Outside of Sale, the rotation is full of question marks as well.  Reynaldo Lopez only pitched 135 innings last year and Strider is returning from injury.  Spencer Schwellenbach was a nice surprise last year but his 2024 workload (124 IP) was nearly double his previous professional high (65). While Strider works to return from injury, the last two rotation spots will probably be decided in Spring Training.

Without any offseason additions (outside of a reclamation project/platoon player), the Braves are betting big on the personnel already in the organization.  No flashy signings and no shrewd trades to address the question marks across the roster, especially in the starting rotation.  They didn't necessarily have to pursue Corbin Burnes or resign Max Fried, but resigning Charlie Morton or adding Yusei Kikuchi/Nathan Eovaldi/Sean Manaea would've added a proven veteran on a shorter commitment to a rotation filled with question marks.

Offseason Grade:  D

2025 Prediction: 3rd in the NL East, Missed Playoffs

ICYM:

NL East Previews:

• Philadelphia Phillies 2025 Preview

2025 Team Previews: Philadelphia Phillies

2024 Recap

Record: 95-67, 1st in NL East, Eliminated in NLDS

The Phillies were arguably the best team in baseball heading into the All-Star break of 2024 and finished with the second-best record in baseball and a division championship despite a slower second half.  Their star-studded lineup was outshined by their rotation. Cy Young runner-up Zack Wheeler and their homegrown star Aaron Nola were joined by breakout campaigns for Cristopher Sanchez and Ranger Suarez to create a scary 1-4.  

However, their season came to a disappointing finish, losing to the Mets in four games in the divisional series, with the bullpen letting them down and the offense disappearing at an inopportune time.  

2025 Outlook

Key Additions:

• Jesus Luzardo, SP (Trade with Marlins)
• Jordan Romano, RP (Free Agent, 1 yr $8.5m)
• Max Kepler, COF (Free Agent, 1 yr $10m)
• Joe Ross, SP/RP (Free Agent, 1 yr $4m

Key Departures:

• Jeff Hoffman, RP (Free Agency)
• Carlos Estevez, RP (Free Agency)
• Spencer Turnbull, SP (Free Agency)
• Austin Hays, COF (Non-Tendered)

Heading into 2025, the Phillies are running back the same offensive core -- Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, JT Realmuto, Nick Castellanos -- that only has a few years left.  Harper is still one of the best players in the game, but the other four have their question marks.  Schwarber is a set-and-forget DH who is a prime example of a three-true outcome hitter (home runs, walks, strikeouts).  After struggling to start the 2023 season, Trea Turner spent some time on the IL in 2024 but looked more like the player we've come to expect.

Castellanos has seen a decline, performing at a replacement level in recent years, leading to the addition of Max Kepler (replacing Austin Hays), who should probably be a platoon partner for him in right field.  Meanwhile, Realmuto will be 34 this season but remains a solid option at catcher, even though his best years are behind him.

The biggest addition is Jesus Luzardo, who has dealt with injuries but has looked unbelievable when he's healthy and at his best.  A rotation of Wheeler, Nola, Luzardo, Sanchez, and Suarez is one of the best in the league and is a strength that the Phillies hope to ride to get to the World Series.  

The Phil's bullpen will look a little different in 2025, with the departures of Carlos Estevez (acquired at the 2024 trade deadline) and closer Jeff Hoffman.  To address this, the Phillies signed ex-Blue Jays closer Jordan Romano, who dealt with injuries in 2024 and missed almost the entire season.  If Romano is healthy, he's a proven closer who the Phillies can rely on in high-leverage situations, but they still need to add more to the pen.  Joe Ross will likely be in a swing-man role, helping out as a spot starter or long reliever when needed.

X-Factor: Andrew Painter, SP

The Phillies' biggest wildcard, is top prospect Andrew Painter who made a much-anticipated return in the AFL after having Tommy John surgery in 2023.  Painter is a potential ace, armed with a 70-grade fastball and 60-grade slider that is lethal from his imposing 6'7 frame.  If Painter keeps checking off the boxes in Spring Training, look for him to be a nice internal boost for the Phillies this summer.

Offseason Grade and Prediction

While on paper, the Phillies improved their rotation and added a proven closer, Luzardo and Romano have legitimate injury concerns and could not be the players we expect them to be.  The rotation is one of the best in baseball even without Luzardo, but the bullpen needs more than just Jose Alvarado and Matt Strahm if they want to contend for a World Series.  

The Phillies might have benefitted from pursuing Teoscar Hernandez or Tyler O'Neill rather than signing Max Kepler, as an impact righty would be invaluable around the power-hitting lefties Schwarber and Harper. 

Overall, this remains a very good team that should dominate the regular season, but this is essentially the same team as the 2024 team that got eliminated by the Mets (who got better) and was already chasing the Dodgers/Padres, with Luzardo and Romano.  They improved a bit, but it's hard to see their postseason run looking different from 2024.

Offseason Grade: B- 

2025 Prediction: 1st in NL East, Eliminated in the NLDS