For the second time in two off-seasons, baseball contracts have shattered everyone's expectations. Last year, a 10-year $700 million contract moved Shohei Ohtani from the Los Angeles Angels to their NL Rival Los Angeles Dodgers, shattering what was expected to be a 500 or maybe even a 600m contract
Last night, history repeated itself, with the 26-year-old Juan Soto moving from New York Yankees to the cross-town rival Mets, on a 15-year, $765 million (with the potential to top $800 million) that completely shattered all expectations of a $650-$700m contract.
The Contract
The contract Soto signed with the Mets is exactly what Mets' fans have been dreaming of ever since Steve "Uncle Stevie" Cohen bought the Mets four years ago. Cohen kept upping his offer, knocking other teams out of the bidding until it was him vs Hal Steinbrenner. Eventually, Cohen got him to drop out too, confirming to the rest of the league that if he wants a player, he will get him. Soto now is the proud owner of:
1. The Largest Contract in Sports History ($765m, previously topping Ohtani's $700m contract)
2. The Longest Contract in Baseball History (15 years, topping Fernando Tatis Jr's 14-year deal)
3. The highest AAV in Baseball history ($51m, topping Ohtani's $47m AAV)
Something interesting about the contract that Scott Boras negotiated, is adding a voidable player opt-out for the second time (previously with Gerrit Cole's Yankees contract). Soto can opt out after year 5 of his deal with the Mets (he'll be 31 and could be primed for another big contract), but the Mets can negate that opt-out by adding an extra 4m a year to the remaining 10 years.
Essentially, this is a 5-year $255m (51 AAV) followed by a 10-year $550m (55 AAV) built-in extension, totaling $805m over 15 years.
Soto wanted the most money possible on a team that will consistently compete for World Series. The Mets made the NLCS in what was supposed to be a retooling year and offered him the most money. It seems like a no-brainer for him.
The Mets
The Mets made their statement. They tried and failed a few years ago with the big contracts they gave to Scherzer/Verlander as well as with Yamamoto last year. This year, they got their guy.
Adding a 26-year-old, future Hall of Famer would be beneficial to any team. Soto's best years are still ahead of him and there are no questions about his intangibles. He's proven time and again he's clutch, and didn't just survive, but thrived in the New York market. Soto has supreme self-confidence in his abilities (shown when he declined the National's massive 15-year, 440 million extension a few years ago) that will rub off on the young talent in that clubhouse.
For the Mets (and their fans), they've announced themselves as a legitimate threat to the league. If Cohen wants a player, the contract offer won't be the reason he misses them. Additionally, they've finally broken the stigma of being the "little brother" of New York, smashing Hal's offer out of the water while also convincing Soto he has a better chance to win with his squad rather than in the pinstripes he became familiar with (and made the World Series) in 2024.
What's Next?
Soto is a massive addition. That's a 10-fWAR-a-year player coming to Queens pairing up with the NL MVP Runner-Up. However, there are still some holes for the Mets to fill, the biggest being finding an impact righty, as well as shoring up the rotation and bullpen.
The obvious answer to the impact righty question is to keep Pete Alonso home. The Mets currently have vacancies at 2B and 1B, and the two names that would make sense right now are Alex Bregman (sliding himself or Vientos over to 2B) and Pete Alonso. Alonso is a better-power hitter who is beloved by the fans and loves to hit fourth. Bregman is an upgrade defensively over Alonso but doesn't have the impact bat that Pete has.
Bringing back Sean Manaea, who had a strong second half after a mechanical adjustment, would make a lot of sense for the Mets, and he would ideally he'd slide into the number two spot in the rotation. I'd like to see the Mets add a true ace or 1a type of pitcher to fortify the rotation, preferably Corbin Burnes but a trade for Luis Castillo or signing Max Fried would be a great consolation prize. The wild card is Roki Sasaki, who they should be doing everything in their power to sign as well since he'll only cost them a minor-league deal and looks like a future ace.
Bullpen-wise, the Mets were able to salvage their bullpen throughout the season last year and already have big money invested in their closer Edwin Diaz. If they can trade for Devin Williams (who for the money he's being paid could be a steal) they should, but they don't need to invest money in Tanner Scott or Jeff Hoffman, they can bargain shop to solidify their bullpen.
The Yankees
The worst-case scenario for the Yankees has arrived. It doesn't really matter who they lost Soto to, losing Soto in itself was a nightmare. Yankee fans are rightfully upset, they just lost a franchise cornerstone and the heir to Judge when he starts slowing down.
The trade for Soto last season (which was the right move at the time), looks a lot worse now. Mike King established himself as a very good starter and the Padres were able to flip Drew Thorpe for Dylan Cease, who had a top 5 Cy Young finish with them.
Something that won't get the full attention it deserves as well: The Yankees have offered over a billion dollars the past two off-seasons to players that chose other teams over them. Yoshinobu Yamamoto turned down 300m to join the Dodgers for 325m, and now Juan Soto turned down 760m to go to the Mets for potentially 800m. It's a concerning trend that cannot become a pattern for what used to be a destination franchise.
What's Next
This is the (760) million dollar question facing GM Brian Cashman. All of the Yankees' ideal offseason scenarios revolved around resigning Juan Soto. It was sign Juan Soto and improve at first base with Christian Walker. Or sign Juan Soto and improve the rotation by adding in Max Fried/Blake Snell.
Losing Soto officially creates two holes in the outfield in center field and left field, with Aaron Judge presumably moving back to right field. Jasson Dominguez will get every chance to win the centerfield job out of spring training, but left field will either have to be resolved by Jazz Chilsolm (opening up another hole in the infield, more on that in a second), or someone outside the organization like a Teoscar Hernandez, Anthony Santander, or trade target.
In the infield, the Yankees have a hole at second base and first base currently. Jazz can move to either second base, left field, or center field, but doing that would re-create the hole at third base they've been trying to fill for years. The Yankees are high on prospect Caleb Durbin who seems to fill in at second base, but that will be two unproven players (in Durbin and Dominguez) that a team with World Series aspirations will be relying on. First base Christian Walker still makes a ton of sense, but pairing Pete Alonso with Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton could be a nightmare for opposing pitchers.
It wouldn't be surprising to see Cashman pivot his focus from run creation (Juan Soto, Pete Alonso) to run prevention (Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Tanner Scott/Jeff Hoffman). A rotation featuring Gerrit Cole and Corbin Burnes would be the best 1-2 punch in the league by a decent amount and would change their roster construction to be more similar to the Mariners (+ Aaron Judge and others), relying on a dominant pitching staff to help them win games.
