The stage is set! We’re down to the final four, with three of the four top seeds making it to the final four.
In the American League, the top seeded Yankees and second seed Guardians have lived up to their playoff expectations and are the last two standing. Over in the National League, the Dodgers and Mets are set to clash. For the third consecutive year, a 6-seed has made it to the NLCS (the previous two, the Diamondbacks and Phillies, both advanced to the World Series).
Its been a bad year for stingy owners, with three of the four remaining teams-- the Mets ($317 million), Yankees ($309 million), and Dodgers ($241 million) ranking among the top five payrolls in baseball. The Guardians, on the other hand, come in at just $106 million (23rd), giving them a true underdog feel heading into this round.
NLCS: Dodgers (1) vs Mets (6)
The magical Mets continue their run despite this being a retooling year after eliminating the Phillies in four games. The Mets' pitching rotation remains a strength, with Kodai Senga likely starting Game 1, (possibly followed by David Peterson). Luis Severino will take the ball for Game 2, with Sean Manaea and José Quintana expected to handle Games 3 and 4.
The starters were lights-out against Philadelphia, but concerns remain about the bullpen. Edwin Díaz has thrown a ton of pitches lately and needed these extra rest days, but his recent outings have been a bit shaky. The biggest question facing these Mets is who manager Carlos Mendoza can rely on to get key outs in high-leverage spots,.
The Dodgers, on the other hand, survived a nail-biting series against their new biggest rivals, the Padres. The Dodgers advance on the back of a dominant bullpen performance to shut down San Diego’s offense for the final 24 innings – nearly three full games! Teoscar Hernández carried the offense in the NLDS, but if they want to take down the Mets, Mookie Betts, who posted a scorching .889 OPS, will need to stay hot. Shohei Ohtani struggled in the NLDS, posting a .623 OPS, and they'll need more from him, especially with Freddie Freeman’s ankle still a lingering concern.
The Dodgers' starting pitching remains a concern. The best start from a Dodger in the NLDS, Yamamoto’s Game 5 performance against the Padres where he went five scoreless innings, featured a lot of loud outs. Walker Buehler, their presumable Game 2 starter, was shelled for six earned runs over five innings without recording a single strikeout. Dave Roberts will have to be strategic in how he handles his bullpen, especially since they might have to play three straight games without a day off once the series moves to NY.
Despite the Mets’ bullpen issues, their starting rotation has given them quality lenth, and their magical run doesn't seem to be slowing down. The Dodgers have plenty of offensive firepower and a strong bullpen, but I’m predicting the Mets pull this one off in six games. Mets in 6.
ALCS: Yankees (1) vs Guardians (6)
In the American League, the Yankees and Guardians square off in a battle of the top two seeds.The Yankees made it past the Royals in four games, though they benefited from a questionable replay in Game 1. Regardless, they were the better team and their bullpen was untouchable throughout the ALDS, not allowing a single earned run. Giancarlo Stanton’s bat has come alive at just the right time, continuing his historic postseason form, while Aaron Judge was relatively quiet. If the Yankees want to advance, they’ll need Judge to return to his regular season MVP-caliber level.
The biggest question for New York is their starting pitching. Gerrit Cole is a rock at the top of the rotation, and Clarke Schmidt should be able to give them four to five solid innings. However, Carlos Rodón’s performance is crucial. He’ll need to show more of what he displayed in the first inning of Game 2, rather than the rough fourth inning that followed. The Yankees have arguably their best team since 2017, but they’ll be up against the best bullpen in baseball.
The Guardians survived a five-game series against the Tigers, thanks in large part to their bullpen and some timely hitting. Tanner Bibee remains their only reliable starter, which puts even more pressure on their elite bullpen. Offensively, Lane Thomas’s grand slam off Tarik Skubal in Game 5 was the turning point, but Cleveland will need players like Steven Kwan and David Fry to remain productive if they want to break through against New York’s arms. The Yankees have a history of avoiding José Ramírez, and they’ll likely continue this strategy after shutting down Bobby Witt Jr in the ALDS.
While Cleveland’s bullpen is better than everyone else's, the Yankees simply have the better roster on paper. Their offense has more firepower, and the bullpen is peaking at the right time. The Guardians’ extra game in the ALDS might also leave their arms slightly more fatigued. With that in mind, I’m picking the Yankees to win this series in five games. Yankees in 5.
