Wednesday, November 20, 2024

Free Agent Breakdown 2024-25: Notes and Updates on the top 25 Players available

Free Agent Breakdown: Top 25 Players for 2024-25

Rankings based on The Athletic's big board.

1. Juan Soto (COF/DH)

At 26, Juan Soto remains a generational offensive talent, often compared to Ted Williams for good reason. He’s coming off the best offensive season of his career, but his defense in right field and baserunning were subpar. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him transition to DH in the near future, depending on his next team.

Expect Soto to land a record-breaking contract—probably starting with a $6—given his proven track record. The Yankees and Mets seem like the primary suitors, but don't sleep on the Red Sox, Phillies, Blue Jays, and Dodgers. With their financial resources, Soto’s one-dimensional skillset becomes an afterthought. For teams with money to spend, he’s worth every penny.

2. Corbin Burnes (SP)

Burnes is the only proven ace on the market. The former Cy Young winner has silenced critics over the last three years by delivering consistent workloads, averaging nearly 200 innings per season. His dominance, highlighted by an eight-inning, one-run gem in his final 2024 start, makes him the top pitcher for teams looking to contend immediately. Look for the Mets to be all over Burnes as they look to land a frontline starter to anchor their rotation. Wouldn't be surprised if the Giants, Blue Jays, and Red Sox are in on him as well.

3. Roki Sasaki (SP)

The Japanese phenom enters free agency as one of the most exciting arms available. Sasaki boasts a triple-digit fastball, a devastating splitter, and ace potential. If his slider carries over, he'll be one of teh best pitchers in the sport and will only cost a team international pool money and a minor league contract due to MLB posting rules, making him a must-target for every team. His upside rivals—or even exceeds—that of recent standout Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

4. Max Fried (SP)

Fried’s elite groundball rate (59.2%) and ability to induce weak contact make him a solid No. 2 starter for a contender. However, he lacks the swing-and-miss dominance of an ace. While he outperformed his xERA in 2024 (3.64 xERA vs. 3.25 ERA), his profile suggests more of a steady, reliable option than a frontline star. He grew up a Dodgers fan and they would be happy to have him, but also wouldn't be surprised if the Orioles, Braves, Mets, Giants, and Cubs take a run at him as well

5. Blake Snell (SP)

If you miss out on Burnes and want a number 1 starter, Snell is your next-best option. Despite battling injuries, Snell finished the season strong for a second consecutive year, boasting a jaw-dropping 34.7% strikeout rate. He’s likely to command a shorter deal with a high AAV, making him an intriguing target for contenders seeking flexibility. When he's healthy and on, he's one of the best pitchers in the game. I'd like to see the Mets take a run at Snell if they miss out on Burnes but also could see the Yankees, Padres, and Dodgers taking a long look.

6. Willy Adames (SS)

Adames quietly had a fantastic 2024, blending power (32 HRs) with newfound speed (21 SBs). One of the league’s better offensive shortstops, he’s also a plus defender at a premium position. While the Brewers would love to keep him, his price tag likely pushes him out of Milwaukee’s plans. He's also said he's willing to move to second or third base if asked. Look for the Dodgers, Blue Jays (if they trade Bichette), and Braves to be highly interested in him.

7. Alex Bregman (3B/2B)

Bregman’s willingness to switch to second base broadens his appeal, where he would instantly become one of the best offensive options at the position. Though his OBP dipped in 2024, his ability to control the strike zone and limit strikeouts while still providing some slug keeps him valuable. Defensively, his below-average arm strength (which would be nullified by a move to second) has not stopped him from being a plus defender. I think the Astros are going to do everything to keep him in Houston.

8. Pete Alonso (1B)

Alonso didn’t quite match his career averages in 2024, but he still provided power (34 HRs) and clutch performances in the Mets’ playoff run. First base is an offensive position, and Alonso remains one of the best right-handed power bats in the entire league. The Mariners and Nationals would both benefit from a proven slugger

9. Anthony Santander (COF)

Santander exploded for 44 home runs in his walk year, solidifying himself as a premier power bat. While his .235 batting average suggests a tradeoff for power, his strikeout and walk rates remain reasonable and he won't be paid to hit a bunch of singles. As a switch-hitter with fantastic pop, he’s a perfect fallback option for teams missing out on Soto. I would love to see him on the Mariners, but also see the Giants, Padres, and Royals (if they want to open the checkbook) being a good fit for him

10. Jack Flaherty (SP)

Flaherty delivered when it mattered most, starting Game 1 of the World Series for the champions. Concerns about his health faded in 2024, as he pitched 162 innings with elite strikeout numbers. Without a qualifying offer attached, the team who signs Flaherty will get a number 2 starter without having to lose a draft pick or pool money. A return to the Dodgers would probably be his top choice, but the Tigers, Orioles, Cardinals and many other teams should be looking to acquire his services

11. Teoscar Hernández (COF)

Hernández rebounded with a strong offensive year, including a .840 OPS and 33 home runs. His bat was crucial to the Dodgers’ playoff success, and his right-handed power complements their lefty heavy stars. While his defense is below average, his bat should make him a priority for any power-needy contender. The Dodgers should reward him with a long term contract, but the Yankees, Mariners, Giants, Royals, and Guardians are intriguing options as well.

12. Sean Manaea (SP)

A midseason mechanical adjustment turned Manaea into the Mets’ best pitcher down the stretch. His crossfire delivery, reminiscent of Chris Sale, makes him especially effective against lefties. At 32, he’s more of a mid-rotation option but could have No. 2 upside if his mechanics continue to shine.

13. Nathan Eovaldi (SP)

Eovaldi enters free agency at 35, looking for a shorter deal. Though not a frontline starter anymore, he’s been a steady presence for the Rangers over the past two seasons. He profiles as a No. 3 starter on a competitive team.

14. Yusei Kikuchi (SP)

Kikuchi impressed after being traded to the Astros at the deadline, posting a 2.70 ERA and a career-best 3.07 FIP over 60 innings. His WHIP also dipped below 1. At 33, Kikuchi won’t demand a long-term deal, making him a great target for teams seeking a No. 2 or 3 starter with upside. A return to the Astros makes a lotta sense for both parties

15. Christian Walker (1B)

Walker offers a mix of power and defense, making him a more cost-effective alternative to Alonso. An elite glove at first base and consistent power production (20+ HRs for four straight seasons) ensure he’ll draw plenty of interest. Wouldn't be surprised if he signs before Alonso since he's a shorter (and cheaper) commitment.

16. Ha-Seong Kim (SS/2B/3B)

Kim’s defensive versatility and elite strike zone control make him an ideal role player for contenders. While his bat isn’t flashy, his glove and consistency could be a great fit for teams like the Dodgers if they miss on Adames.

17. Jurickson Profar (COF)

Profar broke out in 2024, posting an OPS over 100 points higher than his career average. Though his defense and baserunning are average at best, his newfound offensive prowess makes him a worthy gamble as a middle-order bat.

18. Gleyber Torres (2B)

Despite a rough first half, Torres found his groove after the all star break and throughout the playoffs. Though inconsistent on defense and the basepaths, his offensive upside makes him one of the better-hitting second basemen in the sport. At 28 years old, he could be the steal of Free Agency.

19. Tanner Scott (RP)

Scott emerged as the best reliever available at the trade deadline and enters the offseason as the best arm available. Traded for a significant return at the deadline, his elite fastball and high-leverage experience make him a premium bullpen arm. At just 30, he’s young enough to anchor a bullpen for the next several seasons before his fastball stats to fade.

20. Shane Bieber (SP)

Bieber was injured after just 12 (shutout) innings in 2024 and will miss most of 2025. His velocity has been dipping for a while now, but the ex-Cy Young winner still showed flashes of brilliance in limited action. Expect him to sign a short-term, incentive-laden deal as teams bet on his recovery.

21. Walker Buehler (SP)

Similar to Bieber, Buehler’s health adds uncertainty to his market. He struggled in 2024 but flashed his potential during the postseason. His future might be in the bullpen as a fireman if it'll keep him healthier. Pre-injuries, Buehler looked like a Cy Young contender and hopefully he can get close to that level again.

22. Tyler O’Neill (COF)

When healthy, O’Neill is an impact right-handed bat. In just 113 games for the Red Sox in 2024, he smashed 31 home runs, showcasing his immense power potential. However, durability remains a concern, as he has struggled to stay on the field throughout his career. Look for teams who miss out on Teoscar Hernadez/Santander to look at O'Neill.

23. Luis Severino (SP)

Severino rebounded in 2024, leading the Mets' rotation with a 3.91 ERA after two injury-riddled seasons. While he lacks ace-level dominance, he’s a steady middle-of-the-rotation option with the ability to eat innings. His injury history might hurt his

24. Jeff Hoffman (RP)

Hoffman has quietly become one of the most consistent relievers in baseball. Over the past two seasons, he’s posted ERAs of 2.41 and 2.17, while maintaining elite strikeout and chase rates (96th percentile). He can anchor a bullpen and won't cost as much as Tanner Scott

25. Nick Martinez (SP/RP)

Martinez offers versatility as both a starter and reliever. In 2024, he started 16 games while posting a 3.10 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. His ability to limit walks and hard contact makes him a great fit as a No. 4 starter with upside. Martinez has accepted the Reds qualifying offer, and will make just over $20m this season.

Sunday, October 13, 2024

2024 Championship Series Preview: Money Talks

The stage is set! We’re down to the final four, with three of the four top seeds making it to the final four.

In the American League, the top seeded Yankees and second seed Guardians have lived up to their playoff expectations and are the last two standing. Over in the National League, the Dodgers and Mets are set to clash. For the third consecutive year, a 6-seed has made it to the NLCS (the previous two, the Diamondbacks and Phillies, both advanced to the World Series).

Its been a bad year for stingy owners, with three of the four remaining teams-- the Mets ($317 million), Yankees ($309 million), and Dodgers ($241 million) ranking among the top five payrolls in baseball. The Guardians, on the other hand, come in at just $106 million (23rd), giving them a true underdog feel heading into this round.

NLCS: Dodgers (1) vs Mets (6)

The magical Mets continue their run despite this being a retooling year after eliminating the Phillies in four games. The Mets' pitching rotation remains a strength, with Kodai Senga likely starting Game 1, (possibly followed by David Peterson). Luis Severino will take the ball for Game 2, with Sean Manaea and José Quintana expected to handle Games 3 and 4.

The starters were lights-out against Philadelphia, but concerns remain about the bullpen. Edwin Díaz has thrown a ton of pitches lately and needed these extra rest days, but his recent outings have been a bit shaky. The biggest question facing these Mets is who manager Carlos Mendoza can rely on to get key outs in high-leverage spots,.

The Dodgers, on the other hand, survived a nail-biting series against their new biggest rivals, the Padres. The Dodgers advance on the back of a dominant bullpen performance to shut down San Diego’s offense for the final 24 innings – nearly three full games! Teoscar Hernández carried the offense in the NLDS, but if they want to take down the Mets, Mookie Betts, who posted a scorching .889 OPS, will need to stay hot. Shohei Ohtani struggled in the NLDS, posting a .623 OPS, and they'll need more from him, especially with Freddie Freeman’s ankle still a lingering concern.

The Dodgers' starting pitching remains a concern. The best start from a Dodger in the NLDS, Yamamoto’s Game 5 performance against the Padres where he went five scoreless innings, featured a lot of loud outs. Walker Buehler, their presumable Game 2 starter, was shelled for six earned runs over five innings without recording a single strikeout. Dave Roberts will have to be strategic in how he handles his bullpen, especially since they might have to play three straight games without a day off once the series moves to NY.

Despite the Mets’ bullpen issues, their starting rotation has given them quality lenth, and their magical run doesn't seem to be slowing down. The Dodgers have plenty of offensive firepower and a strong bullpen, but I’m predicting the Mets pull this one off in six games. Mets in 6.

ALCS: Yankees (1) vs Guardians (6)

In the American League, the Yankees and Guardians square off in a battle of the top two seeds.The Yankees made it past the Royals in four games, though they benefited from a questionable replay in Game 1. Regardless, they were the better team and their bullpen was untouchable throughout the ALDS, not allowing a single earned run. Giancarlo Stanton’s bat has come alive at just the right time, continuing his historic postseason form, while Aaron Judge was relatively quiet. If the Yankees want to advance, they’ll need Judge to return to his regular season MVP-caliber level.

The biggest question for New York is their starting pitching. Gerrit Cole is a rock at the top of the rotation, and Clarke Schmidt should be able to give them four to five solid innings. However, Carlos Rodón’s performance is crucial. He’ll need to show more of what he displayed in the first inning of Game 2, rather than the rough fourth inning that followed. The Yankees have arguably their best team since 2017, but they’ll be up against the best bullpen in baseball.

The Guardians survived a five-game series against the Tigers, thanks in large part to their bullpen and some timely hitting. Tanner Bibee remains their only reliable starter, which puts even more pressure on their elite bullpen. Offensively, Lane Thomas’s grand slam off Tarik Skubal in Game 5 was the turning point, but Cleveland will need players like Steven Kwan and David Fry to remain productive if they want to break through against New York’s arms. The Yankees have a history of avoiding José Ramírez, and they’ll likely continue this strategy after shutting down Bobby Witt Jr in the ALDS.

While Cleveland’s bullpen is better than everyone else's, the Yankees simply have the better roster on paper. Their offense has more firepower, and the bullpen is peaking at the right time. The Guardians’ extra game in the ALDS might also leave their arms slightly more fatigued. With that in mind, I’m picking the Yankees to win this series in five games. Yankees in 5.

Saturday, October 5, 2024

2024 Divisional Series Preview: AL Central's Rise and NL Rivalries in the Spotlight

We're one step closer to crowning the 2024 MLB Champions. The wild card round was full of excitement and upsets, setting the stage for an exciting (and surprising?) divisional round.

For the first time in years, the AL Central is shaking off its reputation as the weakest division in the American League. Three of the four remaining AL teams hail from the Central, giving us the potential for an all-central ALCS, a scenario almost no one predicted at the start of the season.

Over in the National League, the matchups are just as enticing, fueled by new and old rivalries. The Padres will head to Los Angeles in hopes of finally toppling the Dodgers, while the Mets and Phillies gear up for a showdown that promises fireworks—not just on the field, but in the stands, where two of baseball's most passionate fanbases will clash.

A five-game series may not have the same unpredictability as the best-of-three Wild Card round, but recent years have shown that anything can happen in October. Let’s dive into each team's biggest Key to Success

American League:

Detroit Tigers: AJ Hinch's Masterclass

Tigers’ manager AJ Hinch has orchestrated one of the most remarkable turnarounds in recent memory. Whether it's strategic in-game decisions or lineup management, Hinch has pushed all the right buttons, getting the most out of a team that, on paper, shouldn't be in the playoffs.

Their ace is arguably the best starter in baseball, but outside of Skubal, nobody on this Tigers roster should scare another team. For Detroit to get past a strong Cleveland team, Hinch must continue his tactical wizardry.

Cleveland Guardians: Get the Ball to the Bullpen

Cleveland boasts the best bullpen in the league, led by the nearly unhittable Emmanuel Clase. With four relievers capable of closing games, (soon-to-be) Manager of the Year Stephen Vogt's job is simple—get the ball to his elite bullpen with a lead and let them attack.

For that to happen, the Guardians’ starters and lineup need to do their part by jumping out to early leads, allowing Vogt to unleash his bullpen aggressively.

Kansas City Royals: Supporting Cast Behind Bobby Witt Jr.

It’s no secret that Bobby Witt Jr. is the heart and soul of the Royals, but if they’re going to beat the Yankees, they’ll need contributions from other hitters. Maikel Garcia’s performance against the Orioles was a bright spot, creating the only run in Game 1, and the return of “The Pasquatch,”, played a pivotal role in the Game 2 victory.

While the Royals’ rotation (and bullpen) has the edge over the Yankees, none of that will matter if the offense doesn’t step up. They can’t afford to rely on Witt Jr. alone.

New York Yankees: Starting Pitching Must Deliver

Gerrit Cole found his stride in September, and the Yankees will need him to continue that form if they want to make a deep playoff run. But beyond Cole, New York’s rotation is riddled with uncertainty. Carlos Rodon has been up and down, and Luis Gil has shown flashes of brilliance mixed with command issues.

The Yankees' bullpen has improved as of late, but no one in the Bronx will feel comfortable if this series comes down to a battle of the bullpens. Boone must manage his rotation wisely to avoid those late-game situations against Kansas City’s strong bullpen.

National League:

Philadelphia Phillies: Can the Pitching Staff Rebound?

Few teams have experienced a more dramatic fall-off in pitching performance than the Phillies. After dominating the first half of the season, Philadelphia’s staff has regressed from the best staff in baseball, to posting the 20th worst ERA in the second half. If they want to avoid an early exit (and painful upset), the pitching needs to return to its early-season form.

New York Mets: Keep the Magic Alive

The Mets have captured the nation’s attention with their wild week. After pulling off a miraculous comeback to clinch a wild card spot on Monday, they followed it up by forcing Devin Williams into the worst outing of his career in a win-or-go-home game against the Brewers.

The Mets’ boast potentially the weakest roster of the remaining NL teams, but that hasn't mattered. There’s something special about this team, and if they can keep the momentum going, they could be a force to be reckoned with.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Yamamoto, Then What?

The Dodgers will ride with their $325m ace, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, in Game 1, and if necessary, Game 5. After him, though, question marks abound. JFlare’s performance has dipped after a stellar start to the season in Detroit, with veterans like Clayton Kershaw and Tyler Glasnow unavailable due to injury and no other starters stepping up down the stretch, it'll be interesting to see how the Dodgers approach games 3 and 4.

Could the Dodgers take a risk and start Michael Kopech in a critical Game 3 or 4? Given the uncertainty surrounding the rest of the rotation, it might be their best option.

San Diego Padres: Stay the Course

The Padres have been baseball’s best team since the All-Star break. Even with the loss of Joe Musgrove to Tommy John surgery, San Diego’s pitching staff is the strongest of the remaining playoff teams.

On the offensive side, Fernando Tatis Jr. has rediscovered his form, and his playoff performances have reminded everyone just how dangerous (and electric) he can be. The Padres’ star-studded lineup and balanced pitching give them a strong chance of toppling their division rival, the Dodgers.

Tuesday, August 20, 2024

The "Crapshoot" Playoffs and a 6 IP requirement for Starters?

As we approach the stretch run of the 2024 season, the landscape is more unpredictable than ever. There is no clear-cut "favorite", as the best teams in the league have legitimate flaws, and no team seems destined to reach the elusive 100-win mark. The playoff picture is a chaotic mix of flawed contenders and surging underdogs, setting the stage for what could be one of the most thrilling postseasons in recent memory.

Looking toward the future, the MLB is reportedly considering a major rule change that would redefine the role of the (modern) starting pitcher, potentially altering the strategy and dynamics of the game. In this post, we’ll explore the rollercoaster ride that is this year’s playoff race and delve into the implications of this proposed new rule for starting pitchers.

The 2024 Playoffs: A Battle of Flawed Contenders

As we approach the final stretch of the season, a 100-win season for any team looks like a longshot. I ran a poll in the "Baseball Worldwide" Twitter community asking which team is most likely to reach the century mark in wins this year, with the Orioles leading with 50% of the vote.

However, the most realistic answer is probably no team.

As of 8/19, the Phillies boast the best winning percentage in baseball at .589, which translates to a 95-win pace. Not far behind are the Yankees, Dodgers, and Orioles (.584), who are then closely followed by the Guardians and Brewers (.581). Digging deeper into each team reveals some significant question marks that make a 100-win season even more unlikely.

Team Weaknesses

Yankees and Orioles: Both teams struggle with unreliable bullpens, which could be their Achilles' heel in the postseason when they need to protect small leads against the best lineups in the sport. Additionally, the Yankees seem to have an inability to hit left-handed pitching
Dodgers: While they have a solid top of the roster, their lack of depth in the starting rotation and bottom of the lineup raises concerns
Phillies: The Phillies have had a rough stretch since the All-Star break, posting the third-worst record in the league. Their pitching staff, a strength pre-all-star break, has regressed significantly.
Guardians: Offense wins games, and the Guardians have scored the same number of runs as the Pirates since the All-Star break—a worrying sign for a team hoping to make a deep postseason run.

However, because of this balance at the top of the league, the playoff picture is far from settled, as some teams have come out of the All-Star break red hot and have made the AL West, AL Central, and NL West extremely fun

Hot Teams Making a Push

Diamondbacks: With a 20-8 record since the All-Star break, they are only 4 games back of the Dodgers.
Padres: The Padres have been the best team in baseball post-break, going 20-6 and closing the gap to just 3 games.
Astros: With a 17-10 record, the Astros have pulled 4 games clear of the Mariners in the AL West.
Royals: The Royals have surged to within 3 games of the Guardians with a 17-10 record.
Twins: The Twins are right on the Guardians' heels, just 2 games back after going 16-12 since the break.

The AL East, in particular, is shaping up to be a thrilling finish, with the Orioles and Yankees seemingly begging each other to take the division lead. It might all come down to the last three games of the season between these two storied rivals.

Meanwhile, despite their post-break slump, the Phillies are still 7 games clear in the NL East and will likely cruise to a division title, thanks to their strong first half.

Overall Records as of 8/20

A New Starting Pitcher Requirement: Game-Changer or Misstep?

Last week, reports emerged that MLB is considering a rule change that would require starting pitchers to pitch at least 6 innings with some exceptions. The exceptions are:

The starter throws 100 pitches.
He gives up four or more earned runs.
He gets injured (with a required Injured List stint to avoid manipulation).

This proposal aims to bring more value back to the starting pitcher role. In an era where it's rare to see a starter go beyond five innings, this rule aims to bring back the value of the starting pitcher.

Impact on Pitcher Training

If implemented, this rule would likely change how pitchers train and prepare. Rather than focusing solely on maximizing strikeouts, pitchers would need to balance effectiveness with the ability to navigate the opposing lineup three or more times. This could lead to a resurgence in the value of pitching to soft contact and command over pure velocity.

Market Value of 2-4 Starters

The market value for solid 2-4 starters would likely skyrocket under this new rule. While aces like Gerrit Cole, Corbin Burnes, and Justin Verlander are already highly valued, pitchers who can consistently deliver quality 6-inning starts would become even more coveted as teams would no longer be able to rely as heavily on elite bullpen arms to cover half the game.

Issues with the Proposed Exceptions

While the idea is intriguing, the proposed exceptions need some refining.

100 Pitches: The 100-pitch limit is arbitrary and doesn't account for a pitcher's condition. Advanced metrics now allow us to better assess when a pitcher is tiring, such as changes in arm angle or stride length. This fixed number could be problematic, especially for the start of the season or for pitchers returning from injury who are still building up their stamina.
Four or More Earned Runs: This exception seems reasonable at first glance, but could lead to unintended consequences. For example, a pitcher who unravels after a couple of errors might still be forced to keep pitching, even though the game is slipping away. Moreover, down the stretch, if a team is facing an opposing ace, they might prefer a solid 5-inning, 3-run performance from their 5th starter. With this rule, they could be forced to take a chance on that starter facing the lineup for a third or fourth time, risking the game being pushed out of reach.
Injury Concerns: The injury exception is also problematic. Often, pitchers are removed as a precaution to avoid more severe injuries. Under this rule, pitchers might downplay their injuries to avoid an IL stint, potentially leading to worse outcomes. Additionally, minor issues like blisters, which can severely impact a pitcher's effectiveness, wouldn't qualify for an early exit, possibly leading to more runs and a forced removal under the earned runs rule.

Tuesday, August 13, 2024

8/13 Mound Visit: Merrill's Stellar Season, Snell's Resurgence, Caminero's Call Up

The Mound visit is back! We're halfway through the dog days of August and the league is wide open. Some teams are clawing to stay in the playoff/division race while others have an eye to the future. Let's take a deeper dive into three players to watch down the stretch, starting with an unsung rookie sensation, followed by a Cy Young resurgence before finishing with a quick breakdown of a top prospect's return.

Jackson Merrill's Stellar Season

Rookie Jackson Merrill has been quietly putting together a phenomenal season for the Padres. The former shortstop-turned-center fielder has posted some impressive numbers: a 3.4 fWAR, 125 wRC+, and a solid .289/.321/.479 slash line, good for a .800 OPS.

Despite these stellar statistics and late-game heroics, Merrill has flown somewhat under the radar, partly due to the historical dominance of ROY favorite Paul Skenes and partly due to playing for a West Coast team.

As impressive as Merrill has been, a closer look at his Baseball Savant metrics suggests we've yet to see his best. Merrill ranks in the 87th percentile for xwOBA, 94th in xBA, and 91st in xSLG (all higher than his current stats), indicating some positive regression may be on the horizon.

As impressive as Merrill's been offensively, his defense has been even more impressive. Despite only playing five games in the outfield in his entire career, he's showcased elite defense in center field with 5 Outs Above Average (91st percentile) and ranks in the 84th percentile for overall fielding run value. Merrill is truly a force in all aspects of the game, as he is in the 98th percentile of Baseball Savant's baserunning Run-Value metric, showcasing the completeness of his game.

Merrill is also only just 21 years old and still has room for improvement, particularly in his plate discipline. His walk rate sits in the 10th percentile, while his chase rate of 36% is in the bottom 9th percentile. As he refines these aspects of his game, Merrill could develop into one of the most complete players in the league.

Blake Snell: The Second Half Surge

Blake Snell's 2024 season has been a tale of two halves, mirroring his Cy Young-winning campaign from the previous year. After a brutal start that saw him post ERAs of 11.57 in April, 8.59 in May, and 5.79 in June, Snell has found his groove.

July saw Snell post a microscopic 0.75 ERA over 24 innings, followed by an equally impressive 1.27 ERA over 21.1 innings in August. This resurgence isn't just smoke and mirrors; Snell's underlying metrics support his dominance. His FIP in July and August sat at 2.10 and 1.96, respectively, indicating his success is sustainable.

Baseball Savant paints an even more impressive picture of Snell's recent performance:

97th percentile in xERA at 2.61
91st percentile in average exit velocity at 86.5 MPH
98th percentile in hard-hit percentage at 29.1%
98th percentile in whiff percentage at 36.1%
95th percentile in strikeout percentage at 32.7%

As the season enters its final months, Snell appears poised to continue his dominance and potentially set himself up for a big payday come this offseason.

Junior Caminero: The Prodigy Returns

The baseball world is buzzing with the news that Junior Caminero, the #2 prospect in baseball, is returning to the major leagues. After a brief 36-plate appearance stint in 2023, Caminero is back and ready to make his mark.

Quad injuries limited Caminero to just 59 minor league games this season, likely delaying his call-up. However, in 53 games at AAAl, he showed why he's so highly regarded, slashing .276/.331/.498 for an .828 OPS and a 109 wRC+.

Defensively, Caminero has experience across the infield, logging time at third base, shortstop, and second base in the minors, with the majority of his innings coming at the hot corner. He's expected to take over as the everyday third baseman at the major league level, allowing versatile teammate Morel to split time between second base and first base.

Thursday, August 1, 2024

July team of the Month: Bobby Witt's Hot Summer

The Team of the Month is back in article form! This time I'll be making a lineup of the nine hitters selected and a five-man rotation with a three-person bullpen for the standout pitchers of the month. Let's start with the hitters.

Offense

Outfield

For the first time this season, Aaron Judge won't be featured on the Team of the Month. That's a testament to how well these three players performed. In left field will be the A's Lawrence Butler, who found his power stroke (10 HR), and was a key part of the Oakland lineup (23 Runs, 27 RBIs, 2.0 fWAR).

In the other corner outfield spot is Juan Soto of the New York Yankees, who responded to a slow end of June with a 208 wRC+ across 24 games in July.

The last spot in the outfield goes to the Rockies' center fielder Brenton Doyle, who not only impressed at the plate (11 HR, 208 wRC+) but also shined defensively, accumulating a 1.5 Fangraphs defensive rating across 25 games.

Infield + DH

Only one player had a better offensive month than A's DH Brent Rooker. Brent Rooker's power was on another level this month, slugging .828 with 11 HR and a 253 wRC+ for a total of 2.0 fWAR (tied for second most in July).

At catcher, Seattle's Cal Raleigh dominated on both sides of the batter's box, accumulating a 3.2 Defensive rating while still hitting at a 154 wRC+ clip.

At first base is Toronto's Vladdy Jr., who continues his phenomenal (and overlooked) bounce-back year. Vladdy conquered the heat, and slashed .358/.407/.705 for a 200 wRC+ across 25 July games.

Sliding in next to Vladdy is Arizona's Ketel Marte, who also continued his stand-out season. Ketel finished the month with 7 HR, 23 RBIs, and a186 wRC+, the best among qualified second basemen.

Marte's teammate, Eugenio Suarez, was the standout third basemen of July, barely edging out Boston's Rafael Devers. Suarez provided Arizona with plenty of run production in July, driving in 27 runs in only 25 games.

At shortstop, Gunnar Henderson was finally dethroned. Bobby Witt Jr. was not only the best shortstop in July, but also the best overall player by a wide margin. BWJ accumulated 2.7 fWAR in July, thanks to a video-game-like slash line (.489/.520/.833), elite defense, and baserunning. Witt's had a terrific season, it's just been overshadowed by Gunnar Henderson and Aaron Judge. That is no longer the case, as Witt now leads the league in fWAR (7.5), and is second in bWAR (7.0).

Pitching

For the first time this season, the pitching staff will have a starter for each rotation spot. Starters are graded on their results (ERA), rather than underlying metrics (FIP). Pitchers will also be rewarded for throwing more innings or getting out of high-leverage situations.

George Kirby, one of the Seattles' five-headed monster, had a phenomenal July and is our ace. Despite a poor win-loss record (1-2), Kirby shoved for the M's this month, starting 6 games while pitching to a 2.21 ERA across 36.2 innings (averaged a quality start).

Slotting in behind Kirby is AL Cy Young favorite Tarik Skubal, who continues to dominate. Skubal started 5 games for the Tigers, pitched to a 2.45 ERA over 33 innings, and picked up 3 wins along the way.

The third spot in the rotation goes to Diamondback Ryne Nelson, who pitched in six games (starting 5) in July. Nelson--like our 1 and 2--ate innings this month, throwing 37.1 high-quality innings for the DBacks and finished the month with an ERA of 2.41.

Following Nelson in the rotation is the Padres' Dylan Cease. Cease continued his bounce-back season with a strong July, starting 6 games (going 4-2) for the Friars, pitching to a 2.35 ERA across 38.1 innings.

The last spot in the rotation goes to Cincinnati Red Hunter Greene. Greene does not have the innings (27) or starts (4) that the other members of the rotation have, but they should be thankful that's the case. Hunter Greene was the best pitcher in July, pitching to a minuscule 0.33 ERA, the best mark of any qualified starter by far. Because of the low innings pitched, he gets a ceremonial slap on the wrist and is placed as our 5th starter.

Our three relievers of the month are Cade Smith of the Cleveland Guardians, AJ Puk formerly of the Marlins and now a Diamondback, and Jeff Hoffman of the Phillies. All three of these relievers led the league in July fWAR at a 0.6. Cade Smith had one bad outing, finishing with an ERA of 1.98 over 13.2 IP (12G), while Puk (12 IP, 11G) and Hoffman (10.2 IP, 10G) had a perfect ERA of 0.00.

Wednesday, July 31, 2024

Trade Deadline Recap, Winners + Losers, and more!

The 2024 MLB trade deadline has passed, leaving baseball fans with plenty to discuss and analyze. What initially promised to be one of the most interesting deadlines in years, with legitimate star power potentially on the move and the AL wide open, ultimately saw less movement than anticipated.

Top names that could have been moved, including Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet, and Luis Robert, all ended up staying put. Despite this, several teams made moves that could shape the remainder of the season and beyond.

American League: A Tight Race Continues

No AL team truly separated themselves from the pack during the deadline. In the AL East, the Baltimore Orioles added several players, though none were real needle-movers. The real additions for them could come from top prospects Jackson Holliday and Coby Mayo, who would've been involved in a trade for Tarik Skubal or Garrett Crochet. The New York Yankees acquired Jazz Chisholm, who will help them in multiple ways, but their pitching (and pitching depth) remains a massive question mark.

The race for the AL Central didn't change much, as the Guardians and Royals each made a few additions. The Cleveland Guardians added Lane Thomas to bolster their lineup against lefties and added Alex Cobb to provide some pitching depth. The Kansas City Royals fortified their bullpen with Hunter Harvey and Lucas Erceg, and added starting pitching depth with the addition of Michael Lorenzen. Overall the Royals made more significant additions, but the Guardians were the better team heading into the deadline, setting us up for an exciting stretch run.

In the AL West, the Seattle Mariners made a (very) nice move in acquiring Randy Arozarena, though he alone doesn't fix all their offensive issues. To address this, the M's also added veteran Justin Turner, but his declining hard-hit percentage, exit velocity, and barrel rate are concerning, especially in a pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park. The Houston Astros made a bold move to solidify their rotation, giving up significant prospect capital to acquire half a season of Yusei Kikuchi. Given their track record of getting the best out of pitchers (think Justin Verlander's renaissance and Gerrit Cole's emergence), this could look like a fairer deal come October, but until then this is a headscratcher.

National League: Shaping Up for an Exciting Finish

In the NL East, the Philadelphia Phillies improved their bullpen, replacing Seranthony Dominguez and Gregory Soto with Carlos Estevez and Tanner Banks (who can also start if necessary). They also added Austin Hays as another right-handed outfield bat. The New York Mets had an underrated deadline, adding much-needed pitching to complement their potent lineup.

The NL Central trade deadline was somewhat of a flop. The St. Louis Cardinals probably had the best deadline in the division, but it would have been nice to see the Pittsburgh Pirates go for it, given they still have Paul Skenes and Jared Jones on cheap contracts. The Milwaukee Brewers added some pitching depth but failed to acquire a bat to help replace Christian Yelich's production.

The NL West, however, had a wild deadline and is shaping up to be the most exciting division race. The powerhouse Los Angeles Dodgers salvaged their deadline with the acquisition of Jack Flaherty, potentially solidifying their rotation for the deep playoff run they expect to make. There are some concerns about his medical reports, but if he stays healthy and Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Clayton Kershaw return strong, they could have the best rotation in the NL. They also added Michael Kopech to the bullpen, who could be one of the game's best relievers if he can improve his command.

The Dodger's main competition comes from the bold San Diego Padres, whose player development deserves immense credit. After giving up a plethora of top prospects for stars like Juan Soto, Josh Hader, and Dylan Cease in recent history, they were able to land Jason Adams and Tanner Scott, arguably the two top relievers available. The pitching staff was a strength before, but now they're a nightmare for any opposing lineup.

Winners and Losers

While my immediate reaction was to dub the Dodgers a winner of the deadline and the Blue Jays a loser, I've switched gears. I was penalizing the Blue Jays for not moving Vladdy Jr., but the haul they got from the Astros is more than enough to keep them out of the loser column. The Dodgers buzzer-beating trade for Jack Flaherty overshadowed their other moves, and they definitely were not one of the three biggest winners from this year's deadline given the news about his medicals.

Winners:

Miami Marlins: The Marlins had an excellent deadline, acquiring substantial hauls from the Padres, Orioles, and Diamondbacks, as well as solid players from the Yankees. They targeted pro-ready (or close to it) position players to complement their young pitching staff, setting themselves up to compete soon and for a while if they can overcome the development issues that have plagued them in recent years. A standout move was their mutually beneficial trade with the Orioles, swapping young pitcher Trevor Rogers for two position prospects (Kyle Stowers, OF, and Connor Norby, IF) who were blocked in Baltimore's system but could play for many teams today.
New York Mets: The Mets' lineup was never a concern this season, and despite some slow starts, it has come alive to provide a deadly offense at least six solid hitters deep. They addressed numerous pitching issues at the deadline, and if Edwin Diaz can return to form, they could be a force to be reckoned with in October.
Tampa Bay Rays: The Rays did an excellent job overall. They acknowledged their status as a .500 team and capitalized on a massive sellers' market. While the Mariners may have gotten the better end of the Arozarena trade, the Rays were able to shed his payroll, which is crucial for a small-market team. They also did very well in the Jason Adams and Zach Eflin trades, retooling a farm system that has been consistently excellent at maximizing talent.

Losers:

New York Yankees: Despite having a season with prime Aaron Judge, prime Gerrit Cole, and their only guaranteed year of Juan Soto, the Yankees only added three players. The Jazz Chisholm move is excellent, providing lefty pull power, speed, and team control. They also acquired Mark Leiter Jr. from the Cubs for almost nothing and added a strikeout artist from the Padres. However, in a year where they should've pushed all the chips in, this doesn't feel like it's enough. The starting rotation is full of question marks after Luis Gil (who is probably on some sort of innings restriction) and Gerrit Cole (who might be injured again), and the bullpen could've used at least one more middle-inning reliever.
Pittsburgh Pirates: With the NL Central up for grabs, the team with two elite young (and cheap) pitchers didn't do enough to help their weak offense. While none of the NL Central teams made many moves, the Pirates could have separated themselves from the pack with one or two more bats.
Colorado Rockies and Chicago White Sox: In a seller's market, both these struggling teams failed to capitalize on their tradeable assets. The Rockies should have traded Ryan McMahon, Elias Diaz, and at least one of Cal Quantrill or Austin Gomber. Instead, they only traded two relievers. The White Sox situation was complicated by Garrett Crochet's stance on a potential postseason availability without a contract extension, but they still had a top-shelf tradeable asset in Luis Robert Jr. They also didn't get enough back in the three-team deal sending Kyle Kopech to the Dodgers and Erick Fedde and Tommy Pham to the Cardinals.

The Curious Case of the Chicago Cubs

The Cubs made a surprising move by trading young slugger Christopher Morel and pitching prospects for Isaac Paredes, despite saying they were eyeing moves for the 2025 season and beyond. However, this is a very good move for the Cubs.

Paredes is a significant upgrade over Morel defensively and is a better all-around hitter, though he has less team control. Morel has more power but has struggled to consistently hit at the MLB level, sporting a batting average that hovers around the .200 mark. Paredes can be penciled into the middle of their lineup for the next few years, surrounded by players like Ian Happ, Dansby Swanson, Nico Horner, and more, creating the best top-of-the-lineup in the NL Central.