The Dugout Dispatch

Tuesday, January 14, 2025

2025 Team Previews: New York Mets

2024 Recap

Record: 89-73, 2nd in NL East, Eliminated in NLCS

The Mets approached 2024 as a retooling year. After shipping off future hall of famers Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer at the 2023 trade deadline, David Stearns, Steve "Uncle Stevie" Cohen, and the rest of the Mets brass were looking to get answers on some of their younger prospects with an eye towards competing in 2025.

Instead, the 2024 Mets flipped a switch in June and shocked just about everyone. They finished tied for second in the NL East, making the playoffs as a wild card team before advancing all the way to the NLCS (where they lost to the future champion Dodgers).

The Mets' record from June 1st through the end of the season was a scorching 65-40 thanks to a resurgent Fransico Lindor, a pitching rotation that heavily outperformed expectations, and strong performances from Mark Vientos and Jose Iglesias. The Mets accomplished this successful season despite a down year from star slugger Pete Alonso, and star closer Edwin Diaz.

2025 Outlook

Key Additions:

Juan Soto, COF (Free Agent, 15 years, $765m)
Griffin Canning, SP (Free Agent, 1 year $4.25m)
Clay Holmes, RP/SP (Free Agent 3 years, $38m)
Frankie Montas, SP (Free Agent 2 years, $17m)
Sean Manaea, SP (Resigned in Free Agency, 3 years $75m)
Jose Siri, OF (Trade With Tampa)

Key Departures:

Pete Alonso, 1B (Free Agent)
Luis Severino SP (Free Agent)
Jose Iglesias, 2B (Free Agent)
Jose Quintana, SP (Free Agent)
Jesse Winker, COF (Free Agent)
Harrison Bader, CF (Free Agent)
Phil Maton, RP (Declined Club Option)
Ryan Stanek, RP (Free Agent)
Adam Ottavino, RP (Free Agent)

The Mets signed THE free agent, Juan Soto, to a historic deal that could top $800m. The future Hall-of-Famer and modern-day Ted Williams will join an offense that will again feature MVP Runner-Up Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, and Mark Vientos. Juan Soto's defensive limitations could be mitigated by the trade acquisition of Jose Siri -- one of the best CF's in the sport. The Mets also don't have a set DH, and can rotate Soto into the DH spot if needed.

It seems increasingly likely that Pete Alonso will return to the Mets on a shorter contract. He would be a great addition to this offensive core. In a down year in 2024, Alonso still slugged 34 home runs and would provide great protection for Juan Soto in the lineup as well as give the Mets another impact righty power threat. There's currently a hole at 2nd base (created by the departure of Jose Iglesias) that will probably be filled by one of the Mets prospects, as outside of Alex Bregman there are no available free agents that move the needle.

The Mets starting rotation is losing 350 IP between Luis Severino and Jose Quintana's departure and will look to fill the rotation spots around Kodai Senga (returning from injury), Sean Manaea, and David Peterson with some combination of Clay Holmes (who they want to convert to a starter), Frankie Montas, and Griffin Canning. Holmes has electric stuff but can struggle with command and might need to develop another pitch to handle lefty hitters properly. Montas has dealt with injuries, but the Mets are hoping for a resurgent season from him. Canning, realistically, is a depth piece who could make a spot start when needed.

X-Factor: Pitching, Pitching, more Pitching

The pitching staff needs more. The bullpen could have some struggles again this season, especially if Edwin Diaz has a repeat of his 2024 season, as outside of Clay Holmes (who might be a starter) this team lacks proven back of the bullpen arms.

Meanwhile, the rotation shouldn't strike fear into any contending team. Kodai Senga missed practically all of 2024 with injuries and is on the wrong side of 30, it's fair to wonder what he has left in the tank. Sean Manaea looked like a solid #2 pitcher after a mechanical tweak, but he will be 33 this season and will have to continue that success throughout a full season. David Peterson had a great 2024, but outperformed his FIP by .7 runs, implying he could see some regression come 2025. Lastly, Frankie Montas hasn't looked like the potential front-of-the-rotation starter since dealing with numerous injuries and has limited upside.

Getting a true, proven ace like Corbin Burnes or a proven #2 in Max Fried would've surely pushed the offseason spending north of $1B, but would've given the Mets a cornerstone to build their pitching staff around.

Offseason Grade and Prediction

The Juan Soto signing was a home run, not only for his production but also for what it meant to a fanbase that is tired of missing out on the biggest guys (Yamamoto to the Dodgers, Correa had injury concerns, etc.). However, the roster still has some holes and question marks.

Pete Alonso resigning would fill the void created by his departure as well as give the Mets another proven middle-of-the-order bat, but currently outside of Lindor and Soto, who is a proven threat on this team? Vientos looked like he could be, but he's only done it once.

As of now, the Mets plan is to build around this core and win on the margins, looking for value in players such as Jose Siri, Clay Holmes, and Frankie Montas similar to what they found in 2024 with Jose Iglesias, Luis Severino, and Jose Quintana.

Despite the questions in the pitching staff and offensive consistency outside of Lindor and Soto, this team heading into 2025 is better than the 2024, version. They're just not ready to take the crown from the Phillies yet.

Offseason Grade: B+

2025 Prediction: 2nd in the NL East, Wildcard Team

ICYM:

NL East Previews:

Friday, January 10, 2025

2025 Team Previews: Atlanta Braves

2024 Recap

Record: 89-73, 2nd in NL East, Eliminated in NLWS

The 2024 season had a nightmarish start for the Braves. Ace Spencer Strider was lost for the season during his second start due to a bone fragment in his UCL, reigning MVP Ronald Acuña never got going and was lost to an ACL injury (the second in the past four seasons), catcher Sean Murphy didn't make it through opening day before suffering an oblique injury.

On top of this, stars like Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Michael Harris II, and Ozzie Albies regressed from their 2023 performances.

Despite all this, the team still managed to win 89 games, an accomplishment that will be overshadowed by their recent dominance. The team was driven by a dominant pitching staff (including Chris Sale's Cy Young Season) and an offense powered by DH Marcell Ozuna who finished 4th in MVP voting.

Despite their overachieving, the Braves couldn't recreate their 2021 magic and were swept in the wildcard round 2-0 by a dangerous Padres team.

2025 Outlook

Key Additions:

Bryan De La Cruz (1 year, $860k
Nick Allen (Trade with Athletics)

Key Departures:

Charlie Morton, SP (Free Agency)
Max Fried, SP (Free Agency)
AJ Minter, RP (Free Agency)
Gio Urshela, IF (Free Agency)
Travis d'Arnaud (Declined Club Option)
Jorge Soler, COF/DH (Trade with Angels)

The Braves front office is one of the best in the sport their offensive core -- Austin Riley, Sean Murphy, Ronald Acuña Jr., Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris II, and Matt Olson -- is locked up for the foreseeable future. However, all of these players had a down year and/or dealt with injuries in 2024 begging the question of which Braves offense will we see in 2025 -- the historic 2023 juggernaut or the underwhelming 2024 version.

The Braves strong rotation will be returning Cy Young winner Chris Sale, breakout pitcher Reynaldo Lopez, and star Spencer Strider (eventually), but will have to fill the voids left by Max Fried (174 IP) and Charlie Morton (165 IP). The Braves have faith in their young pitchers, but those are two big shoes to fill. The bullpen, another strength, remains largely the same.

Overall, the Braves have been a non-factor this offseason and will be relying mostly on bounce-back seasons from their stars to improve upon their 2024 campaign. Bryan De La Cruz will probably take the Jorge Soler role on the team, and the Braves will rely on their young pitchers to replace the holes created by the departure of Max Fried and Charlie Morton.

Given their track record, its hard to bet against the Braves front office, but relying on unproven starters to replace proven veterans like Max Fried and Charlie Morton is unnerving. The offense should be better, but the biggest thing for the Braves heading into 2025 is....

X-Factor: Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña Jr.'s return from Injury

The Braves managed to win the World Series in 2021 despite losing Acuña to his first ACL injury, but at the end of the day, this Braves team will only go as far as their stars take them. It's common for players to struggle when they first return from an ACL injury (Acuña included), and it is fair to wonder how much production the Braves can rely on from a player who relies on their athleticism and struggled after his first ACL injury.

Strider, on the other hand, had his second major elbow surgery in the last five years and should return this summer. Depending on how many rehab starts Strider gets, he might have some rust as he hasn't pitched consistently since the end of the 2023 season (excluding 2024 spring training).

Offseason Grade and Prediction

While the Braves need their stars to bounce back and play to the back of their baseball card, they also need Chris Sale and Marcel Ozuna to have a repeat of their 2024 seasons if they want to contend in a loaded NL. Sale will be entering his age 36 season, and last year pitched 177 innings (his most since 2017) and made more than 20 starts for the first time since 2019. Ozuna greatly outperformed his career averages and will be 34 next season.

Outside of Sale, the rotation is full of question marks as well. Reynaldo Lopez only pitched 135 innings last year and Strider is returning from injury. Spencer Schwellenbach was a nice surprise last year but his 2024 workload (124 IP) was nearly double his previous professional high (65). While Strider works to return from injury, the last two rotation spots will probably be decided in Spring Training.

Without any offseason additions (outside of a reclamation project/platoon player), the Braves are betting big on the personnel already in the organization. No flashy signings and no shrewd trades to address the question marks across the roster, especially in the starting rotation. They didn't necessarily have to pursue Corbin Burnes or resign Max Fried, but resigning Charlie Morton or adding Yusei Kikuchi/Nathan Eovaldi/Sean Manaea would've added a proven veteran on a shorter commitment to a rotation filled with question marks.

Offseason Grade: D

2025 Prediction: 3rd in the NL East, Missed Playoffs

ICYM:

NL East Previews:

Philadelphia Phillies 2025 Preview

Tuesday, January 7, 2025

2025 Team Previews: Philadelphia Phillies

2024 Recap

Record: 95-67, 1st in NL East, Eliminated in NLDS

The Phillies were arguably the best team in baseball heading into the All-Star break of 2024 and finished with the second-best record in baseball and a division championship despite a slower second half. Their star-studded lineup was outshined by their rotation. Cy Young runner-up Zack Wheeler and their homegrown star Aaron Nola were joined by breakout campaigns for Cristopher Sanchez and Ranger Suarez to create a scary 1-4.

However, their season came to a disappointing finish, losing to the Mets in four games in the divisional series, with the bullpen letting them down and the offense disappearing at an inopportune time.

2025 Outlook

Key Additions:

Jesus Luzardo, SP (Trade with Marlins)
Jordan Romano, RP (Free Agent, 1 yr $8.5m)
Max Kepler, COF (Free Agent, 1 yr $10m)
Joe Ross, SP/RP (Free Agent, 1 yr $4m

Key Departures:

Jeff Hoffman, RP (Free Agency)
Carlos Estevez, RP (Free Agency)
Spencer Turnbull, SP (Free Agency)
Austin Hays, COF (Non-Tendered)

Heading into 2025, the Phillies are running back the same offensive core -- Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, JT Realmuto, Nick Castellanos -- that only has a few years left. Harper is still one of the best players in the game, but the other four have their question marks. Schwarber is a set-and-forget DH who is a prime example of a three-true outcome hitter (home runs, walks, strikeouts). After struggling to start the 2023 season, Trea Turner spent some time on the IL in 2024 but looked more like the player we've come to expect.

Castellanos has seen a decline, performing at a replacement level in recent years, leading to the addition of Max Kepler (replacing Austin Hays), who should probably be a platoon partner for him in right field. Meanwhile, Realmuto will be 34 this season but remains a solid option at catcher, even though his best years are behind him.

The biggest addition is Jesus Luzardo, who has dealt with injuries but has looked unbelievable when he's healthy and at his best. A rotation of Wheeler, Nola, Luzardo, Sanchez, and Suarez is one of the best in the league and is a strength that the Phillies hope to ride to get to the World Series.

The Phil's bullpen will look a little different in 2025, with the departures of Carlos Estevez (acquired at the 2024 trade deadline) and closer Jeff Hoffman. To address this, the Phillies signed ex-Blue Jays closer Jordan Romano, who dealt with injuries in 2024 and missed almost the entire season. If Romano is healthy, he's a proven closer who the Phillies can rely on in high-leverage situations, but they still need to add more to the pen. Joe Ross will likely be in a swing-man role, helping out as a spot starter or long reliever when needed.

X-Factor: Andrew Painter, SP

The Phillies' biggest wildcard, is top prospect Andrew Painter who made a much-anticipated return in the AFL after having Tommy John surgery in 2023. Painter is a potential ace, armed with a 70-grade fastball and 60-grade slider that is lethal from his imposing 6'7 frame. If Painter keeps checking off the boxes in Spring Training, look for him to be a nice internal boost for the Phillies this summer.

Offseason Grade and Prediction

While on paper, the Phillies improved their rotation and added a proven closer, Luzardo and Romano have legitimate injury concerns and could not be the players we expect them to be. The rotation is one of the best in baseball even without Luzardo, but the bullpen needs more than just Jose Alvarado and Matt Strahm if they want to contend for a World Series.

The Phillies might have benefitted from pursuing Teoscar Hernandez or Tyler O'Neill rather than signing Max Kepler, as an impact righty would be invaluable around the power-hitting lefties Schwarber and Harper.

Overall, this remains a very good team that should dominate the regular season, but this is essentially the same team as the 2024 team that got eliminated by the Mets (who got better) and was already chasing the Dodgers/Padres, with Luzardo and Romano. They improved a bit, but it's hard to see their postseason run looking different from 2024.

Offseason Grade: B-

2025 Prediction: 1st in NL East, Eliminated in the NLDS

Monday, December 9, 2024

Mets Land Juan Soto in Historic Deal, Shaking MLB's Landscape

For the second time in two off-seasons, baseball contracts have shattered everyone's expectations. Last year, a 10-year $700 million contract moved Shohei Ohtani from the Los Angeles Angels to their NL Rival Los Angeles Dodgers, shattering what was expected to be a 500 or maybe even a 600m contract

Last night, history repeated itself, with the 26-year-old Juan Soto moving from New York Yankees to the cross-town rival Mets, on a 15-year, $765 million (with the potential to top $800 million) that completely shattered all expectations of a $650-$700m contract.

The Contract

The contract Soto signed with the Mets is exactly what Mets' fans have been dreaming of ever since Steve "Uncle Stevie" Cohen bought the Mets four years ago. Cohen kept upping his offer, knocking other teams out of the bidding until it was him vs Hal Steinbrenner. Eventually, Cohen got him to drop out too, confirming to the rest of the league that if he wants a player, he will get him. Soto now is the proud owner of:

1. The Largest Contract in Sports History ($765m, previously topping Ohtani's $700m contract)

2. The Longest Contract in Baseball History (15 years, topping Fernando Tatis Jr's 14-year deal)

3. The highest AAV in Baseball history ($51m, topping Ohtani's $47m AAV)

Something interesting about the contract that Scott Boras negotiated, is adding a voidable player opt-out for the second time (previously with Gerrit Cole's Yankees contract). Soto can opt out after year 5 of his deal with the Mets (he'll be 31 and could be primed for another big contract), but the Mets can negate that opt-out by adding an extra 4m a year to the remaining 10 years.

Essentially, this is a 5-year $255m (51 AAV) followed by a 10-year $550m (55 AAV) built-in extension, totaling $805m over 15 years.

Soto wanted the most money possible on a team that will consistently compete for World Series. The Mets made the NLCS in what was supposed to be a retooling year and offered him the most money. It seems like a no-brainer for him.

The Mets

The Mets made their statement. They tried and failed a few years ago with the big contracts they gave to Scherzer/Verlander as well as with Yamamoto last year. This year, they got their guy.

Adding a 26-year-old, future Hall of Famer would be beneficial to any team. Soto's best years are still ahead of him and there are no questions about his intangibles. He's proven time and again he's clutch, and didn't just survive, but thrived in the New York market. Soto has supreme self-confidence in his abilities (shown when he declined the National's massive 15-year, 440 million extension a few years ago) that will rub off on the young talent in that clubhouse.

For the Mets (and their fans), they've announced themselves as a legitimate threat to the league. If Cohen wants a player, the contract offer won't be the reason he misses them. Additionally, they've finally broken the stigma of being the "little brother" of New York, smashing Hal's offer out of the water while also convincing Soto he has a better chance to win with his squad rather than in the pinstripes he became familiar with (and made the World Series) in 2024.

What's Next?

Soto is a massive addition. That's a 10-fWAR-a-year player coming to Queens pairing up with the NL MVP Runner-Up. However, there are still some holes for the Mets to fill, the biggest being finding an impact righty, as well as shoring up the rotation and bullpen.

The obvious answer to the impact righty question is to keep Pete Alonso home. The Mets currently have vacancies at 2B and 1B, and the two names that would make sense right now are Alex Bregman (sliding himself or Vientos over to 2B) and Pete Alonso. Alonso is a better-power hitter who is beloved by the fans and loves to hit fourth. Bregman is an upgrade defensively over Alonso but doesn't have the impact bat that Pete has.

Bringing back Sean Manaea, who had a strong second half after a mechanical adjustment, would make a lot of sense for the Mets, and he would ideally he'd slide into the number two spot in the rotation. I'd like to see the Mets add a true ace or 1a type of pitcher to fortify the rotation, preferably Corbin Burnes but a trade for Luis Castillo or signing Max Fried would be a great consolation prize. The wild card is Roki Sasaki, who they should be doing everything in their power to sign as well since he'll only cost them a minor-league deal and looks like a future ace.

Bullpen-wise, the Mets were able to salvage their bullpen throughout the season last year and already have big money invested in their closer Edwin Diaz. If they can trade for Devin Williams (who for the money he's being paid could be a steal) they should, but they don't need to invest money in Tanner Scott or Jeff Hoffman, they can bargain shop to solidify their bullpen.

The Yankees

The worst-case scenario for the Yankees has arrived. It doesn't really matter who they lost Soto to, losing Soto in itself was a nightmare. Yankee fans are rightfully upset, they just lost a franchise cornerstone and the heir to Judge when he starts slowing down.

The trade for Soto last season (which was the right move at the time), looks a lot worse now. Mike King established himself as a very good starter and the Padres were able to flip Drew Thorpe for Dylan Cease, who had a top 5 Cy Young finish with them.

Something that won't get the full attention it deserves as well: The Yankees have offered over a billion dollars the past two off-seasons to players that chose other teams over them. Yoshinobu Yamamoto turned down 300m to join the Dodgers for 325m, and now Juan Soto turned down 760m to go to the Mets for potentially 800m. It's a concerning trend that cannot become a pattern for what used to be a destination franchise.

What's Next

This is the (760) million dollar question facing GM Brian Cashman. All of the Yankees' ideal offseason scenarios revolved around resigning Juan Soto. It was sign Juan Soto and improve at first base with Christian Walker. Or sign Juan Soto and improve the rotation by adding in Max Fried/Blake Snell.

Losing Soto officially creates two holes in the outfield in center field and left field, with Aaron Judge presumably moving back to right field. Jasson Dominguez will get every chance to win the centerfield job out of spring training, but left field will either have to be resolved by Jazz Chilsolm (opening up another hole in the infield, more on that in a second), or someone outside the organization like a Teoscar Hernandez, Anthony Santander, or trade target.

In the infield, the Yankees have a hole at second base and first base currently. Jazz can move to either second base, left field, or center field, but doing that would re-create the hole at third base they've been trying to fill for years. The Yankees are high on prospect Caleb Durbin who seems to fill in at second base, but that will be two unproven players (in Durbin and Dominguez) that a team with World Series aspirations will be relying on. First base Christian Walker still makes a ton of sense, but pairing Pete Alonso with Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton could be a nightmare for opposing pitchers.

It wouldn't be surprising to see Cashman pivot his focus from run creation (Juan Soto, Pete Alonso) to run prevention (Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Tanner Scott/Jeff Hoffman). A rotation featuring Gerrit Cole and Corbin Burnes would be the best 1-2 punch in the league by a decent amount and would change their roster construction to be more similar to the Mariners (+ Aaron Judge and others), relying on a dominant pitching staff to help them win games.

Tuesday, December 3, 2024

How the Deferring Dodgers strategy is good for baseball and the latest on the Soto Sweepstakes

What if the key to baseball’s future lies in a strategy that only one team can currently pull off?

As the Winter Meetings approach, the Los Angeles Dodgers bold approach to contracts has helped them set the foundation for a dynasty, potentially redefining how teams approach roster construction in the process.

Meanwhile, the Soto sweepstakes loom large, promising to shape the offseason in dramatic fashion. Let’s dive into why the Dodgers’ new strategy might be good for baseball—and how the Juan Soto saga is playing out so far.

Dodgers Spending Habits

"The Los Angeles Deferrals", "Deferring Dodgers", "Sport Ruiners". These nicknames have been thrown at the Los Angeles Dodgers recently, especially after signing another marquee player to a big contract...with deferred money. While some view this negatively, Andrew Friedman’s strategy is a masterstroke—one that’s not just beneficial for the Dodgers but for baseball as a whole. The best part for Friedman? It might only work for them.

The Dodgers have signed plenty of stars in recent years, persuading them to agree to some form of deferral in the contract. Shohei Ohtani's deal is the most notorious example, deferring 680 million of his $700 million contract to 2034-2043. However, other players such as Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernandez, Blake Snell, Tommy Edman, and Will Smith have also agreed to Deferrals

Why it Works for Players:

The benefits for players are clear:

Tax Advantages: Deferring income allows players to reduce exposure to California's high state taxes
Financial Flexibility: Future earnings from deferred contracts don't reduce players' ability to sign new lucrative deals. For example, if Ohtani signs another contract worth $30 million annually after 2034, he'd earn that $30 million plus the deferred $68 million from the Dodgers, totaling $98 million annually (pre-taxes).

Why it Works for The Dodgers:

From the team's perspective, deferrals provide immediate financial flexibility and extend their championship window. For example, Ohtani only being paid $2 million cash from the Dodgers allowed them to sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto to a historic deal. Additionally:

Luxury Tax Relief: the luxury tax calculation is based on the adjusted average annual value (AAV) of the contract. Ohtani's $700 million/10-year deal has an AAV of $46 million, not $70 million. This $24 million difference could save the dodgers hundreds of millions in taxes over time.
Competitive Advantage: By lowering their luxury tax burden, the Dodgers are able to offer more guaranteed money with lesser tax implications since the payments are spread over a longer period of time than the contract.

One thing that helps the Dodgers is that they are currently the premier destination for most players. They've been a model in terms of player development and team-building. Almost every player can improve with the Dodgers player development staff and will be competing for championships. Now, the Dodgers have found a way to mitigate the biggest con (California Taxes) that come with playing for them, while also giving them more financial flexibility to improve the roster.

Soto Sweepstakes

As of now, five teams have reportedly made formal offers to Juan Soto: the Red Sox, Mets, Yankees, Blue Jays and Dodgers. However, it's unlikely these are their final offers. Soto's decision-making process isn't only about getting a record breaking contract, but also about joining a team poised for perennial World Series contention. In his initial meetings with teams, he reported asked about player development, roster-building plans, and long-term competitiveness among other things.

Red Sox

The Red Sox have significant roster holes to fill, including adding multiple starting pitchers and upgrading at least two infield spots. While their farm system is among the best in baseball, their prospects remain unproven at the MLB level. Adding Soto would help, but their issues may require trades—like one for star lefty Garrett Crochet—to truly compete.

Mets

Even with Frankie Montas signed, the Mets still desperately need starting pitching. They also face uncertainties at first and second base, especially with the potential departure of Pete Alonso. Swapping Soto for Alonso might improve their lineup but wouldn’t close their competitive gap with teams like the Dodgers or Padres.

Yankees

The Yankees seem to be set with starting pitching (even though they could use more), but still have three holes they need to fill. Depending on where Jazz plays, two of left field, second base and third base, as well as first base needs to be addressed this offseason. Additionally the Yankees are losing multiple reliable bullpen arms and will need to bolster their pen.

Blue Jays

The Blue Jays face an uphill battle. Burdened by large contracts for George Springer, Kevin Gausman, and José Berríos, they also need to extend Vladimir Guerrero Jr. If signing Soto means losing Vladdy Jr., it’s hard to see Soto committing to Toronto. They'll also need more from Bichette/have a plan to replace him, as he was terrible in 2024 and probably isn't in the teams long term plans anymore.

Dodgers

If Soto wants to win championships, he should sign with the Dodgers. They have multiple stars locked up for years, just beat him in the Yankees in the World Series, and have the best player development in the sport. However, the Dodgers have so much money on the books and Soto has said he does not want to sign a deferred contract, making his salary a tough fit into the Dodgers payroll. They'll keep doing their due dilligence to see if the market breaks their way, but they probably won't be willing to make the financial commitment required to get Soto's services.

Dark Horse: Phillies

While they haven't made a formal offer yet, the Phillies have had reported interest in Soto. They're a very complete team, with a strong pitching staff and strong lineup. The Phillies could reunite the ex-young Nationals stars Trea Turner, Juan Soto, and Bryce Harper, complimenting them with Kyle Schwarber, JT Realmuto, and others. The front office has been aggressive in past years and they might be willing to spend, especially if they're able to move Nick Castellanos to free up some cash and a spot in RF for Soto.

Wednesday, November 20, 2024

Free Agent Breakdown 2024-25: Notes and Updates on the top 25 Players available

Free Agent Breakdown: Top 25 Players for 2024-25

Rankings based on The Athletic's big board.

1. Juan Soto (COF/DH)

At 26, Juan Soto remains a generational offensive talent, often compared to Ted Williams for good reason. He’s coming off the best offensive season of his career, but his defense in right field and baserunning were subpar. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him transition to DH in the near future, depending on his next team.

Expect Soto to land a record-breaking contract—probably starting with a $6—given his proven track record. The Yankees and Mets seem like the primary suitors, but don't sleep on the Red Sox, Phillies, Blue Jays, and Dodgers. With their financial resources, Soto’s one-dimensional skillset becomes an afterthought. For teams with money to spend, he’s worth every penny.

2. Corbin Burnes (SP)

Burnes is the only proven ace on the market. The former Cy Young winner has silenced critics over the last three years by delivering consistent workloads, averaging nearly 200 innings per season. His dominance, highlighted by an eight-inning, one-run gem in his final 2024 start, makes him the top pitcher for teams looking to contend immediately. Look for the Mets to be all over Burnes as they look to land a frontline starter to anchor their rotation. Wouldn't be surprised if the Giants, Blue Jays, and Red Sox are in on him as well.

3. Roki Sasaki (SP)

The Japanese phenom enters free agency as one of the most exciting arms available. Sasaki boasts a triple-digit fastball, a devastating splitter, and ace potential. If his slider carries over, he'll be one of teh best pitchers in the sport and will only cost a team international pool money and a minor league contract due to MLB posting rules, making him a must-target for every team. His upside rivals—or even exceeds—that of recent standout Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

4. Max Fried (SP)

Fried’s elite groundball rate (59.2%) and ability to induce weak contact make him a solid No. 2 starter for a contender. However, he lacks the swing-and-miss dominance of an ace. While he outperformed his xERA in 2024 (3.64 xERA vs. 3.25 ERA), his profile suggests more of a steady, reliable option than a frontline star. He grew up a Dodgers fan and they would be happy to have him, but also wouldn't be surprised if the Orioles, Braves, Mets, Giants, and Cubs take a run at him as well

5. Blake Snell (SP)

If you miss out on Burnes and want a number 1 starter, Snell is your next-best option. Despite battling injuries, Snell finished the season strong for a second consecutive year, boasting a jaw-dropping 34.7% strikeout rate. He’s likely to command a shorter deal with a high AAV, making him an intriguing target for contenders seeking flexibility. When he's healthy and on, he's one of the best pitchers in the game. I'd like to see the Mets take a run at Snell if they miss out on Burnes but also could see the Yankees, Padres, and Dodgers taking a long look.

6. Willy Adames (SS)

Adames quietly had a fantastic 2024, blending power (32 HRs) with newfound speed (21 SBs). One of the league’s better offensive shortstops, he’s also a plus defender at a premium position. While the Brewers would love to keep him, his price tag likely pushes him out of Milwaukee’s plans. He's also said he's willing to move to second or third base if asked. Look for the Dodgers, Blue Jays (if they trade Bichette), and Braves to be highly interested in him.

7. Alex Bregman (3B/2B)

Bregman’s willingness to switch to second base broadens his appeal, where he would instantly become one of the best offensive options at the position. Though his OBP dipped in 2024, his ability to control the strike zone and limit strikeouts while still providing some slug keeps him valuable. Defensively, his below-average arm strength (which would be nullified by a move to second) has not stopped him from being a plus defender. I think the Astros are going to do everything to keep him in Houston.

8. Pete Alonso (1B)

Alonso didn’t quite match his career averages in 2024, but he still provided power (34 HRs) and clutch performances in the Mets’ playoff run. First base is an offensive position, and Alonso remains one of the best right-handed power bats in the entire league. The Mariners and Nationals would both benefit from a proven slugger

9. Anthony Santander (COF)

Santander exploded for 44 home runs in his walk year, solidifying himself as a premier power bat. While his .235 batting average suggests a tradeoff for power, his strikeout and walk rates remain reasonable and he won't be paid to hit a bunch of singles. As a switch-hitter with fantastic pop, he’s a perfect fallback option for teams missing out on Soto. I would love to see him on the Mariners, but also see the Giants, Padres, and Royals (if they want to open the checkbook) being a good fit for him

10. Jack Flaherty (SP)

Flaherty delivered when it mattered most, starting Game 1 of the World Series for the champions. Concerns about his health faded in 2024, as he pitched 162 innings with elite strikeout numbers. Without a qualifying offer attached, the team who signs Flaherty will get a number 2 starter without having to lose a draft pick or pool money. A return to the Dodgers would probably be his top choice, but the Tigers, Orioles, Cardinals and many other teams should be looking to acquire his services

11. Teoscar Hernández (COF)

Hernández rebounded with a strong offensive year, including a .840 OPS and 33 home runs. His bat was crucial to the Dodgers’ playoff success, and his right-handed power complements their lefty heavy stars. While his defense is below average, his bat should make him a priority for any power-needy contender. The Dodgers should reward him with a long term contract, but the Yankees, Mariners, Giants, Royals, and Guardians are intriguing options as well.

12. Sean Manaea (SP)

A midseason mechanical adjustment turned Manaea into the Mets’ best pitcher down the stretch. His crossfire delivery, reminiscent of Chris Sale, makes him especially effective against lefties. At 32, he’s more of a mid-rotation option but could have No. 2 upside if his mechanics continue to shine.

13. Nathan Eovaldi (SP)

Eovaldi enters free agency at 35, looking for a shorter deal. Though not a frontline starter anymore, he’s been a steady presence for the Rangers over the past two seasons. He profiles as a No. 3 starter on a competitive team.

14. Yusei Kikuchi (SP)

Kikuchi impressed after being traded to the Astros at the deadline, posting a 2.70 ERA and a career-best 3.07 FIP over 60 innings. His WHIP also dipped below 1. At 33, Kikuchi won’t demand a long-term deal, making him a great target for teams seeking a No. 2 or 3 starter with upside. A return to the Astros makes a lotta sense for both parties

15. Christian Walker (1B)

Walker offers a mix of power and defense, making him a more cost-effective alternative to Alonso. An elite glove at first base and consistent power production (20+ HRs for four straight seasons) ensure he’ll draw plenty of interest. Wouldn't be surprised if he signs before Alonso since he's a shorter (and cheaper) commitment.

16. Ha-Seong Kim (SS/2B/3B)

Kim’s defensive versatility and elite strike zone control make him an ideal role player for contenders. While his bat isn’t flashy, his glove and consistency could be a great fit for teams like the Dodgers if they miss on Adames.

17. Jurickson Profar (COF)

Profar broke out in 2024, posting an OPS over 100 points higher than his career average. Though his defense and baserunning are average at best, his newfound offensive prowess makes him a worthy gamble as a middle-order bat.

18. Gleyber Torres (2B)

Despite a rough first half, Torres found his groove after the all star break and throughout the playoffs. Though inconsistent on defense and the basepaths, his offensive upside makes him one of the better-hitting second basemen in the sport. At 28 years old, he could be the steal of Free Agency.

19. Tanner Scott (RP)

Scott emerged as the best reliever available at the trade deadline and enters the offseason as the best arm available. Traded for a significant return at the deadline, his elite fastball and high-leverage experience make him a premium bullpen arm. At just 30, he’s young enough to anchor a bullpen for the next several seasons before his fastball stats to fade.

20. Shane Bieber (SP)

Bieber was injured after just 12 (shutout) innings in 2024 and will miss most of 2025. His velocity has been dipping for a while now, but the ex-Cy Young winner still showed flashes of brilliance in limited action. Expect him to sign a short-term, incentive-laden deal as teams bet on his recovery.

21. Walker Buehler (SP)

Similar to Bieber, Buehler’s health adds uncertainty to his market. He struggled in 2024 but flashed his potential during the postseason. His future might be in the bullpen as a fireman if it'll keep him healthier. Pre-injuries, Buehler looked like a Cy Young contender and hopefully he can get close to that level again.

22. Tyler O’Neill (COF)

When healthy, O’Neill is an impact right-handed bat. In just 113 games for the Red Sox in 2024, he smashed 31 home runs, showcasing his immense power potential. However, durability remains a concern, as he has struggled to stay on the field throughout his career. Look for teams who miss out on Teoscar Hernadez/Santander to look at O'Neill.

23. Luis Severino (SP)

Severino rebounded in 2024, leading the Mets' rotation with a 3.91 ERA after two injury-riddled seasons. While he lacks ace-level dominance, he’s a steady middle-of-the-rotation option with the ability to eat innings. His injury history might hurt his

24. Jeff Hoffman (RP)

Hoffman has quietly become one of the most consistent relievers in baseball. Over the past two seasons, he’s posted ERAs of 2.41 and 2.17, while maintaining elite strikeout and chase rates (96th percentile). He can anchor a bullpen and won't cost as much as Tanner Scott

25. Nick Martinez (SP/RP)

Martinez offers versatility as both a starter and reliever. In 2024, he started 16 games while posting a 3.10 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. His ability to limit walks and hard contact makes him a great fit as a No. 4 starter with upside. Martinez has accepted the Reds qualifying offer, and will make just over $20m this season.

Sunday, October 13, 2024

2024 Championship Series Preview: Money Talks

The stage is set! We’re down to the final four, with three of the four top seeds making it to the final four.

In the American League, the top seeded Yankees and second seed Guardians have lived up to their playoff expectations and are the last two standing. Over in the National League, the Dodgers and Mets are set to clash. For the third consecutive year, a 6-seed has made it to the NLCS (the previous two, the Diamondbacks and Phillies, both advanced to the World Series).

Its been a bad year for stingy owners, with three of the four remaining teams-- the Mets ($317 million), Yankees ($309 million), and Dodgers ($241 million) ranking among the top five payrolls in baseball. The Guardians, on the other hand, come in at just $106 million (23rd), giving them a true underdog feel heading into this round.

NLCS: Dodgers (1) vs Mets (6)

The magical Mets continue their run despite this being a retooling year after eliminating the Phillies in four games. The Mets' pitching rotation remains a strength, with Kodai Senga likely starting Game 1, (possibly followed by David Peterson). Luis Severino will take the ball for Game 2, with Sean Manaea and José Quintana expected to handle Games 3 and 4.

The starters were lights-out against Philadelphia, but concerns remain about the bullpen. Edwin Díaz has thrown a ton of pitches lately and needed these extra rest days, but his recent outings have been a bit shaky. The biggest question facing these Mets is who manager Carlos Mendoza can rely on to get key outs in high-leverage spots,.

The Dodgers, on the other hand, survived a nail-biting series against their new biggest rivals, the Padres. The Dodgers advance on the back of a dominant bullpen performance to shut down San Diego’s offense for the final 24 innings – nearly three full games! Teoscar Hernández carried the offense in the NLDS, but if they want to take down the Mets, Mookie Betts, who posted a scorching .889 OPS, will need to stay hot. Shohei Ohtani struggled in the NLDS, posting a .623 OPS, and they'll need more from him, especially with Freddie Freeman’s ankle still a lingering concern.

The Dodgers' starting pitching remains a concern. The best start from a Dodger in the NLDS, Yamamoto’s Game 5 performance against the Padres where he went five scoreless innings, featured a lot of loud outs. Walker Buehler, their presumable Game 2 starter, was shelled for six earned runs over five innings without recording a single strikeout. Dave Roberts will have to be strategic in how he handles his bullpen, especially since they might have to play three straight games without a day off once the series moves to NY.

Despite the Mets’ bullpen issues, their starting rotation has given them quality lenth, and their magical run doesn't seem to be slowing down. The Dodgers have plenty of offensive firepower and a strong bullpen, but I’m predicting the Mets pull this one off in six games. Mets in 6.

ALCS: Yankees (1) vs Guardians (6)

In the American League, the Yankees and Guardians square off in a battle of the top two seeds.The Yankees made it past the Royals in four games, though they benefited from a questionable replay in Game 1. Regardless, they were the better team and their bullpen was untouchable throughout the ALDS, not allowing a single earned run. Giancarlo Stanton’s bat has come alive at just the right time, continuing his historic postseason form, while Aaron Judge was relatively quiet. If the Yankees want to advance, they’ll need Judge to return to his regular season MVP-caliber level.

The biggest question for New York is their starting pitching. Gerrit Cole is a rock at the top of the rotation, and Clarke Schmidt should be able to give them four to five solid innings. However, Carlos Rodón’s performance is crucial. He’ll need to show more of what he displayed in the first inning of Game 2, rather than the rough fourth inning that followed. The Yankees have arguably their best team since 2017, but they’ll be up against the best bullpen in baseball.

The Guardians survived a five-game series against the Tigers, thanks in large part to their bullpen and some timely hitting. Tanner Bibee remains their only reliable starter, which puts even more pressure on their elite bullpen. Offensively, Lane Thomas’s grand slam off Tarik Skubal in Game 5 was the turning point, but Cleveland will need players like Steven Kwan and David Fry to remain productive if they want to break through against New York’s arms. The Yankees have a history of avoiding José Ramírez, and they’ll likely continue this strategy after shutting down Bobby Witt Jr in the ALDS.

While Cleveland’s bullpen is better than everyone else's, the Yankees simply have the better roster on paper. Their offense has more firepower, and the bullpen is peaking at the right time. The Guardians’ extra game in the ALDS might also leave their arms slightly more fatigued. With that in mind, I’m picking the Yankees to win this series in five games. Yankees in 5.