2025 Team Previews: Washington Nationals

2024 Recap

Record: 71-91, 4th in NL East, Missed Playoffs

The Nationals finished 2024 with the exact same record as 2023, a rare feat.  However, the way this season ended, National fans have hope for the first time since the franchise started their rebuild in 2022 with the trade of Juan Soto to the Padres (as well as the previous years deadline deal of Trea Turner and Max Scherzer to the Dodgers).

This 71 win season included positive development for some of the key returns in those trades, with CJ Abrams making the all star team and Mackenzie Gore posting the best ERA and FIP of his career.  Additionally, star prospects James Woods (also acquired in the Juan Soto trade), and 2023 2nd overall pick Dylan Crews provided some electric moments in their limited action this season.  

24 year-olds Jacob Young (CF) and Luis Garcia Jr. (2B) produced over 2.0 bWAR each, and appear to be nice supplementary pieces around the Nationals young core. 

2025 Outlook

Key Additions:

• Jorge Lopez, RP
• Josh Bell, 1B
• Michael Soroka, SP
• Trevor Williams, SP
• Nathaniel Lowe, 1B

Key Departures:

• Kyle Finnegan, RP
• Tanner Rainey, RP
• Joey Meneses, 1B
• Patrick Corbin, SP
• Joey Gallo, 1B/OF

The two main departures from the Nationals this offseason are closer Kyle Finnegan and reliever Tanner Rainey, who combined to finish 88 games for the Nationals in 2024.  Finnegan had a strong season, finishing with 38 saves while pitching in 65 games for the Nats.  Resigning free agent Trevor Williams was a shrewd move for the team, as he was brilliant in his 13 starts this season (2.03 ERA, 13 starts). 

The depatures of Joey Meneses and Joey Gallo open up spots at 1B/DH for the newly acquired Nathaniel Lowe and Josh Bell, while the hope of Michael Soroka is to replace some of the 174 innings pitched by Patrick Corbin in 2024. The Nationals also signed Jorge Lopez to hopefully replace the departed Kyle Finnegan's production.

in 2025, the Nationals are looking for answers on their young core.  Offensively, this team is looking for reassurance that they have a solid core in James Woods, CJ Abrams and Dylan Crews and will look to see if either Jacob Young, Luis Garcia Jr., Kiebert Ruiz, and/or Nathaniel Lowe can join them as building blocks.  On the pitching front, the Nationals would love to see a bounceback year from Josiah Gray (injured for most of 2024) and another positive step forward from Mackenzie Gore.  They'll also look for Trevor Williams to pick up where he left off and see if any of Mitchell Parker, DJ Herz, Jackson Rutledge, or Jake Irvin can be future pieces in their rotation.

X-Factor: Development

The Nationals traded three all world players at the 2021 and 2022 trade deadlines and the majority of their return have made the big leagues in 2024.  Of those returns, nobody has lived up to their hype yet.  Mackenzie Gore has shown flashes of dominance, Josiah Gray was a solid pitcher in 2023, but that season appears more like an outlier than the expectation, especially coming off Tommy John surgery in 2024.

CJ Abrams has posted back to back 3.4 bWAR seasons, but is this his ceiling or is their another step he can take?  Dylan Crews and James Woods looked like superstars at times, but will they encounter a sophomore slump in 2025 or will they look like future MVP candidates that they're hyped up to be.

If their young players continue to develop, the Nationals could be a dark horse wild card team in the tough National League.

Offseason Grade and Prediction

The Nationals handled this offseason like a rebuilding team should.  They got some band-aids to fill the holes left from their departures and are going to give every their younger players every chance to prove they're building blocks. 

If James Woods and Dylan Crews continue their development at the Major League level, this could be one of the more fun teams to watch in 2025 as they get closer to competing in 2026 and beyond.

Offseason Grade:  B/B-

2025 Prediction: 4th in the NL East, Miss Playoffs

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NL East Previews:

• Philadelphia Phillies 2025 Preview
• Atlanta Braves 2025 Preview
• New York Mets 2025 Preview

From NPB to MLB: Roki Sasaki and the Challenges of Transition

For the second consecutive offseason, a Japanese "Phenom" was available.  This time, it didn't cost $700m for his services. 

Roki Sasaki, was posted as an international amateur, making him only eligible to sign a minor league deal with a bonus from the teams international signing pool -- a marquee talent at a bargain price for the team that won the "Roki Sweepstakes".

The sweepstakes concluded last night, with Sasaki joining his fellow countrymen Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto on the Los Angeles Dodgers, adding to their wealth of Japanese talent and starting pitching.

Sasaki possesses a fastball that can touch triple digits, possibly the best splitter in the world, and a slider that should translate over to the MLB if he regains some velocity.  He first burst onto the scene in the last World Baseball Classic, where he was a key player for the Japanese team that won the championship. Over four professional seasons in the NPB, he posted an outstanding 30-15, a 2.02 ERA, a 0.988 WHIP, and 11.4 K/9 rate. 

Despite being labeled a "Phenom", expectations should be tempered for the 23 year old star.  Historically, Japanese pitchers often need an adjustment period when transitioning to the MLB.  Factors like increased competition, adapting to a five-man rotation versus the NPB's weekly rotation, and cultural changes can present challenges.

Let's examine how some highly regarded Japanese pitchers fared in their early MLB seasons.

Yu Darvish, Texas Rangers

Yu Darvish signed with the Rangers after they posted a $51.7 million fee to negotiate with him. Darvish agreed to a six-year, $56 million deal (up to $60 million with incentives), bringing the total investment to $107.7 million—the most spent on a Japanese player at the time.

In NPB, Darvish dominated for five consecutive seasons with an ERA under 2.00. His final season stat line was extraordinary: 28 starts, 18-6 record, 232 innings pitched, 1.44 ERA, six shutouts, and a 7.67 K:BB ratio.

However, Darvish needed time to acclimate in MLB. In his rookie season, he posted a 3.90 ERA and a 2.48 K:BB ratio. By his second season, he looked more like the ace Texas had signed, recording a 2.83 ERA and a 3.46 K:BB ratio.

Darvish has continuously been sought after by MLB contenders, and became the first Japanese pitcher with 2000 strikeouts in the MLB

Hiroki Kuroda, Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers signed Hiroki Kuroda in 2008 when he was 33 years old.  Despite his experience, Kuroda took time to find his groove.  In his rookie season he pitched to to a respectable 3.73 ERA across 183 IP.

Injuries slowed him down in 2009, limiting to 117 innings.  However, he rebounded in 2010, throwing 196.1 IP with a 3.39 ERA.  Kuroda became a reliable arm, starting five consecutive Opening Days for the Dodgers.

Masahiro Tanaka, New York Yankees

Tanaka signed a massive seven year, $155m (with a $20m posting fee) with the Yankees ahead of the 2014 season.  He was incredible in his first few starts, but suffered an injured UCL that limited him the rest of the season, but Tanaka still finished with 136.1 IP and a 2.77 ERA.  

After a step back in year 2, (154 IP, 3.51 ERA), Tanaka pitched the best season of his 7 year career in year 3, throwing almost 200 IP (199.2) with a 3.07 ERA.  

Other Notable Pitchers and Comparisons

Shohei Ohtani: His best pitching season was his third full season as a pitcher, but he's had to also focus on his hitting as well

Yusei Kikuchi: Kikuchi's last two seasons hes finally started to put it together, and was rewarded with a nice contract from teh Angels this year

Yoshinobu Yamaoto: He had a much better year than a lot of people will admit (given his record contract for a pitcher) while also battling some injuries, look for him to take a step forward in year 2

Kenta Maeda: Maeda seems like a bit of an outlier, with his first year being his best.  He's still pitching today and has put together a respectable career in the MLB.

Closing Thoughts

Transitioning from the NPB to the MLB isn't easy for anyone.  While the NPB is a highly competitive league, the MLB is the best in the world.  Add in other factors like a different pitching schedule, a different ball, language barriers, and being far from home compound the challenge of meeting lofty expectations.

Roki Sasaki has the potential to be the best pitcher in baseball, but let's not write him off immediately if he doesn't meet the lofty expectations in year one. He wouldn't be the first Japanese star to require an adjustment period -- and if history is any guide, we'll have to wait a bit to see him at his best.

2025 Team Previews: New York Mets

 

2024 Recap

Record: 89-73, 2nd in NL East, Eliminated in NLCS 

The Mets approached 2024 as a retooling year. After shipping off future hall of famers Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer at the 2023 trade deadline, David Stearns, Steve "Uncle Stevie" Cohen, and the rest of the Mets brass were looking to get answers on some of their younger prospects with an eye towards competing in 2025.  

Instead, the 2024 Mets flipped a switch in June and shocked just about everyone. They finished tied for second in the NL East, making the playoffs as a wild card team before advancing all the way to the NLCS (where they lost to the future champion Dodgers).  

The Mets' record from June 1st through the end of the season was a scorching 65-40 thanks to a resurgent Fransico Lindor, a pitching rotation that heavily outperformed expectations, and strong performances from Mark Vientos and Jose Iglesias.  The Mets accomplished this successful season despite a down year from star slugger Pete Alonso, and star closer Edwin Diaz.

2025 Outlook

Key Additions:

• Juan Soto, COF (Free Agent, 15 years, $765m)
• Griffin Canning, SP (Free Agent, 1 year $4.25m)
• Clay Holmes, RP/SP (Free Agent 3 years, $38m)
• Frankie Montas, SP (Free Agent 2 years, $17m)
• Sean Manaea, SP (Resigned in Free Agency, 3 years $75m)
• Jose Siri, OF (Trade With Tampa)

Key Departures:

• Pete Alonso, 1B (Free Agent)
• Luis Severino SP (Free Agent)
• Jose Iglesias, 2B (Free Agent)
• Jose Quintana, SP (Free Agent)
• Jesse Winker, COF (Free Agent)
• Harrison Bader, CF (Free Agent)
• Phil Maton, RP (Declined Club Option)
• Ryan Stanek, RP (Free Agent) 
• Adam Ottavino, RP (Free Agent)

The Mets signed THE free agent, Juan Soto, to a historic deal that could top $800m.  The future Hall-of-Famer and modern-day Ted Williams will join an offense that will again feature MVP Runner-Up Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, and Mark Vientos.  Juan Soto's defensive limitations could be mitigated by the trade acquisition of Jose Siri -- one of the best CF's in the sport.  The Mets also don't have a set DH, and can rotate Soto into the DH spot if needed.

It seems increasingly likely that Pete Alonso will return to the Mets on a shorter contract. He would be a great addition to this offensive core. In a down year in 2024, Alonso still slugged 34 home runs and would provide great protection for Juan Soto in the lineup as well as give the Mets another impact righty power threat.  There's currently a hole at 2nd base (created by the departure of Jose Iglesias) that will probably be filled by one of the Mets prospects, as outside of Alex Bregman there are no available free agents that move the needle.

The Mets starting rotation is losing 350 IP between Luis Severino and Jose Quintana's departure and will look to fill the rotation spots around Kodai Senga (returning from injury), Sean Manaea, and David Peterson with some combination of Clay Holmes (who they want to convert to a starter), Frankie Montas, and Griffin Canning.  Holmes has electric stuff but can struggle with command and might need to develop another pitch to handle lefty hitters properly.  Montas has dealt with injuries, but the Mets are hoping for a resurgent season from him.  Canning, realistically, is a depth piece who could make a spot start when needed.

X-Factor: Pitching, Pitching, more Pitching

The pitching staff needs more.  The bullpen could have some struggles again this season, especially if Edwin Diaz has a repeat of his 2024 season, as outside of Clay Holmes (who might be a starter) this team lacks proven back of the bullpen arms.  

Meanwhile, the rotation shouldn't strike fear into any contending team.  Kodai Senga missed practically all of 2024 with injuries and is on the wrong side of 30, it's fair to wonder what he has left in the tank.  Sean Manaea looked like a solid #2 pitcher after a mechanical tweak, but he will be 33 this season and will have to continue that success throughout a full season.  David Peterson had a great 2024, but outperformed his FIP by .7 runs, implying he could see some regression come 2025. Lastly, Frankie Montas hasn't looked like the potential front-of-the-rotation starter since dealing with numerous injuries and has limited upside.

Getting a true, proven ace like Corbin Burnes or a proven #2 in Max Fried would've surely pushed the offseason spending north of $1B, but would've given the Mets a cornerstone to build their pitching staff around.  

Offseason Grade and Prediction

The Juan Soto signing was a home run, not only for his production but also for what it meant to a fanbase that is tired of missing out on the biggest guys (Yamamoto to the Dodgers, Correa had injury concerns, etc.). However, the roster still has some holes and question marks.

Pete Alonso resigning would fill the void created by his departure as well as give the Mets another proven middle-of-the-order bat, but currently outside of Lindor and Soto, who is a proven threat on this team?  Vientos looked like he could be, but he's only done it once.  

As of now, the Mets plan is to build around this core and win on the margins, looking for value in players such as Jose Siri, Clay Holmes, and Frankie Montas similar to what they found in 2024 with Jose Iglesias, Luis Severino, and Jose Quintana.  

Despite the questions in the pitching staff and offensive consistency outside of Lindor and Soto, this team heading into 2025 is better than the 2024, version.  They're just not ready to take the crown from the Phillies yet. 

Offseason Grade:  B+

2025 Prediction: 2nd in the NL East, Wildcard Team

ICYM:

NL East Previews:

• Philadelphia Phillies 2025 Preview
• Atlanta Braves 2025 Preview

2025 Team Previews: Atlanta Braves

2024 Recap

Record: 89-73, 2nd in NL East, Eliminated in NLWS 

The 2024 season had a nightmarish start for the Braves. Ace Spencer Strider was lost for the season during his second start due to a bone fragment in his UCL, reigning MVP Ronald Acuña never got going and was lost to an ACL injury (the second in the past four seasons), catcher Sean Murphy didn't make it through opening day before suffering an oblique injury.

On top of this, stars like Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Michael Harris II, and Ozzie Albies regressed from their 2023 performances. 

Despite all this, the team still managed to win 89 games, an accomplishment that will be overshadowed by their recent dominance.  The team was driven by a dominant pitching staff (including Chris Sale's Cy Young Season) and an offense powered by DH Marcell Ozuna who finished 4th in MVP voting. 

Despite their overachieving, the Braves couldn't recreate their 2021 magic and were swept in the wildcard round 2-0 by a dangerous Padres team.

2025 Outlook

Key Additions:

• Bryan De La Cruz (1 year, $860k
• Nick Allen (Trade with Athletics)

Key Departures:

• Charlie Morton, SP (Free Agency)
• Max Fried, SP (Free Agency)
• AJ Minter, RP (Free Agency)
• Gio Urshela, IF (Free Agency)
• Travis d'Arnaud (Declined Club Option)
• Jorge Soler, COF/DH (Trade with Angels)

The Braves front office is one of the best in the sport their offensive core -- Austin Riley, Sean Murphy, Ronald Acuña Jr., Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris II, and Matt Olson -- is locked up for the foreseeable future.  However, all of these players had a down year and/or dealt with injuries in 2024 begging the question of which Braves offense will we see in 2025 -- the historic 2023 juggernaut or the underwhelming 2024 version.

The Braves strong rotation will be returning Cy Young winner Chris Sale, breakout pitcher Reynaldo Lopez, and star Spencer Strider (eventually), but will have to fill the voids left by Max Fried (174 IP) and Charlie Morton (165 IP).  The Braves have faith in their young pitchers, but those are two big shoes to fill.  The bullpen, another strength, remains largely the same.

Overall, the Braves have been a non-factor this offseason and will be relying mostly on bounce-back seasons from their stars to improve upon their 2024 campaign.  Bryan De La Cruz will probably take the Jorge Soler role on the team, and the Braves will rely on their young pitchers to replace the holes created by the departure of Max Fried and Charlie Morton.

Given their track record, its hard to bet against the Braves front office, but relying on unproven starters to replace proven veterans like Max Fried and Charlie Morton is unnerving.  The offense should be better, but the biggest thing for the Braves heading into 2025 is....

X-Factor: Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña Jr.'s return from Injury

The Braves managed to win the World Series in 2021 despite losing Acuña to his first ACL injury, but at the end of the day, this Braves team will only go as far as their stars take them.  It's common for players to struggle when they first return from an ACL injury (Acuña included), and it is fair to wonder how much production the Braves can rely on from a player who relies on their athleticism and struggled after his first ACL injury.

Strider, on the other hand, had his second major elbow surgery in the last five years and should return this summer.  Depending on how many rehab starts Strider gets, he might have some rust as he hasn't pitched consistently since the end of the 2023 season (excluding 2024 spring training).

Offseason Grade and Prediction

While the Braves need their stars to bounce back and play to the back of their baseball card, they also need Chris Sale and Marcel Ozuna to have a repeat of their 2024 seasons if they want to contend in a loaded NL.  Sale will be entering his age 36 season, and last year pitched 177 innings (his most since 2017) and made more than 20 starts for the first time since 2019.  Ozuna greatly outperformed his career averages and will be 34 next season.

Outside of Sale, the rotation is full of question marks as well.  Reynaldo Lopez only pitched 135 innings last year and Strider is returning from injury.  Spencer Schwellenbach was a nice surprise last year but his 2024 workload (124 IP) was nearly double his previous professional high (65). While Strider works to return from injury, the last two rotation spots will probably be decided in Spring Training.

Without any offseason additions (outside of a reclamation project/platoon player), the Braves are betting big on the personnel already in the organization.  No flashy signings and no shrewd trades to address the question marks across the roster, especially in the starting rotation.  They didn't necessarily have to pursue Corbin Burnes or resign Max Fried, but resigning Charlie Morton or adding Yusei Kikuchi/Nathan Eovaldi/Sean Manaea would've added a proven veteran on a shorter commitment to a rotation filled with question marks.

Offseason Grade:  D

2025 Prediction: 3rd in the NL East, Missed Playoffs

ICYM:

NL East Previews:

• Philadelphia Phillies 2025 Preview

2025 Team Previews: Philadelphia Phillies

2024 Recap

Record: 95-67, 1st in NL East, Eliminated in NLDS

The Phillies were arguably the best team in baseball heading into the All-Star break of 2024 and finished with the second-best record in baseball and a division championship despite a slower second half.  Their star-studded lineup was outshined by their rotation. Cy Young runner-up Zack Wheeler and their homegrown star Aaron Nola were joined by breakout campaigns for Cristopher Sanchez and Ranger Suarez to create a scary 1-4.  

However, their season came to a disappointing finish, losing to the Mets in four games in the divisional series, with the bullpen letting them down and the offense disappearing at an inopportune time.  

2025 Outlook

Key Additions:

• Jesus Luzardo, SP (Trade with Marlins)
• Jordan Romano, RP (Free Agent, 1 yr $8.5m)
• Max Kepler, COF (Free Agent, 1 yr $10m)
• Joe Ross, SP/RP (Free Agent, 1 yr $4m

Key Departures:

• Jeff Hoffman, RP (Free Agency)
• Carlos Estevez, RP (Free Agency)
• Spencer Turnbull, SP (Free Agency)
• Austin Hays, COF (Non-Tendered)

Heading into 2025, the Phillies are running back the same offensive core -- Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, JT Realmuto, Nick Castellanos -- that only has a few years left.  Harper is still one of the best players in the game, but the other four have their question marks.  Schwarber is a set-and-forget DH who is a prime example of a three-true outcome hitter (home runs, walks, strikeouts).  After struggling to start the 2023 season, Trea Turner spent some time on the IL in 2024 but looked more like the player we've come to expect.

Castellanos has seen a decline, performing at a replacement level in recent years, leading to the addition of Max Kepler (replacing Austin Hays), who should probably be a platoon partner for him in right field.  Meanwhile, Realmuto will be 34 this season but remains a solid option at catcher, even though his best years are behind him.

The biggest addition is Jesus Luzardo, who has dealt with injuries but has looked unbelievable when he's healthy and at his best.  A rotation of Wheeler, Nola, Luzardo, Sanchez, and Suarez is one of the best in the league and is a strength that the Phillies hope to ride to get to the World Series.  

The Phil's bullpen will look a little different in 2025, with the departures of Carlos Estevez (acquired at the 2024 trade deadline) and closer Jeff Hoffman.  To address this, the Phillies signed ex-Blue Jays closer Jordan Romano, who dealt with injuries in 2024 and missed almost the entire season.  If Romano is healthy, he's a proven closer who the Phillies can rely on in high-leverage situations, but they still need to add more to the pen.  Joe Ross will likely be in a swing-man role, helping out as a spot starter or long reliever when needed.

X-Factor: Andrew Painter, SP

The Phillies' biggest wildcard, is top prospect Andrew Painter who made a much-anticipated return in the AFL after having Tommy John surgery in 2023.  Painter is a potential ace, armed with a 70-grade fastball and 60-grade slider that is lethal from his imposing 6'7 frame.  If Painter keeps checking off the boxes in Spring Training, look for him to be a nice internal boost for the Phillies this summer.

Offseason Grade and Prediction

While on paper, the Phillies improved their rotation and added a proven closer, Luzardo and Romano have legitimate injury concerns and could not be the players we expect them to be.  The rotation is one of the best in baseball even without Luzardo, but the bullpen needs more than just Jose Alvarado and Matt Strahm if they want to contend for a World Series.  

The Phillies might have benefitted from pursuing Teoscar Hernandez or Tyler O'Neill rather than signing Max Kepler, as an impact righty would be invaluable around the power-hitting lefties Schwarber and Harper. 

Overall, this remains a very good team that should dominate the regular season, but this is essentially the same team as the 2024 team that got eliminated by the Mets (who got better) and was already chasing the Dodgers/Padres, with Luzardo and Romano.  They improved a bit, but it's hard to see their postseason run looking different from 2024.

Offseason Grade: B- 

2025 Prediction: 1st in NL East, Eliminated in the NLDS

Mets Land Juan Soto in Historic Deal, Shaking MLB's Landscape

For the second time in two off-seasons, baseball contracts have shattered everyone's expectations.  Last year, a 10-year $700 million contract moved Shohei Ohtani from the Los Angeles Angels to their NL Rival Los Angeles Dodgers, shattering what was expected to be a 500 or maybe even a 600m contract

Last night, history repeated itself, with the 26-year-old Juan Soto moving from New York Yankees to the cross-town rival Mets, on a 15-year, $765 million (with the potential to top $800 million) that completely shattered all expectations of a $650-$700m contract.

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The Contract

The contract Soto signed with the Mets is exactly what Mets' fans have been dreaming of ever since Steve "Uncle Stevie" Cohen bought the Mets four years ago.  Cohen kept upping his offer, knocking other teams out of the bidding until it was him vs Hal Steinbrenner.  Eventually, Cohen got him to drop out too, confirming to the rest of the league that if he wants a player, he will get him.  Soto now is the proud owner of:

1. The Largest Contract in Sports History ($765m, previously topping Ohtani's $700m contract)

2. The Longest Contract in Baseball History (15 years, topping Fernando Tatis Jr's 14-year deal)

3. The highest AAV in Baseball history ($51m, topping Ohtani's $47m AAV)

Something interesting about the contract that Scott Boras negotiated, is adding a voidable player opt-out for the second time (previously with Gerrit Cole's Yankees contract).  Soto can opt out after year 5 of his deal with the Mets (he'll be 31 and could be primed for another big contract), but the Mets can negate that opt-out by adding an extra 4m a year to the remaining 10 years.

Essentially, this is a 5-year $255m (51 AAV) followed by a 10-year $550m (55 AAV) built-in extension, totaling $805m over 15 years.

Soto wanted the most money possible on a team that will consistently compete for World Series. The Mets made the NLCS in what was supposed to be a retooling year and offered him the most money.  It seems like a no-brainer for him.

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The Mets

The Mets made their statement.  They tried and failed a few years ago with the big contracts they gave to Scherzer/Verlander as well as with Yamamoto last year.  This year, they got their guy.  

Adding a 26-year-old, future Hall of Famer would be beneficial to any team.  Soto's best years are still ahead of him and there are no questions about his intangibles.  He's proven time and again he's clutch, and didn't just survive, but thrived in the New York market.  Soto has supreme self-confidence in his abilities (shown when he declined the National's massive 15-year, 440 million extension a few years ago) that will rub off on the young talent in that clubhouse.

For the Mets (and their fans), they've announced themselves as a legitimate threat to the league.  If Cohen wants a player, the contract offer won't be the reason he misses them.  Additionally, they've finally broken the stigma of being the "little brother" of New York, smashing Hal's offer out of the water while also convincing Soto he has a better chance to win with his squad rather than in the pinstripes he became familiar with (and made the World Series) in 2024.

What's Next?

Soto is a massive addition. That's a 10-fWAR-a-year player coming to Queens pairing up with the NL MVP Runner-Up.  However, there are still some holes for the Mets to fill, the biggest being finding an impact righty, as well as shoring up the rotation and bullpen.  

The obvious answer to the impact righty question is to keep Pete Alonso home.  The Mets currently have vacancies at 2B and 1B, and the two names that would make sense right now are Alex Bregman (sliding himself or Vientos over to 2B) and Pete Alonso.  Alonso is a better-power hitter who is beloved by the fans and loves to hit fourth. Bregman is an upgrade defensively over Alonso but doesn't have the impact bat that Pete has.

Bringing back Sean Manaea, who had a strong second half after a mechanical adjustment, would make a lot of sense for the Mets, and he would ideally he'd slide into the number two spot in the rotation.  I'd like to see the Mets add a true ace or 1a type of pitcher to fortify the rotation, preferably Corbin Burnes but a trade for Luis Castillo or signing Max Fried would be a great consolation prize.  The wild card is Roki Sasaki, who they should be doing everything in their power to sign as well since he'll only cost them a minor-league deal and looks like a future ace.

Bullpen-wise, the Mets were able to salvage their bullpen throughout the season last year and already have big money invested in their closer Edwin Diaz.  If they can trade for Devin Williams (who for the money he's being paid could be a steal) they should, but they don't need to invest money in Tanner Scott or Jeff Hoffman, they can bargain shop to solidify their bullpen.

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The Yankees

The worst-case scenario for the Yankees has arrived.  It doesn't really matter who they lost Soto to, losing Soto in itself was a nightmare.  Yankee fans are rightfully upset, they just lost a franchise cornerstone and the heir to Judge when he starts slowing down.

The trade for Soto last season (which was the right move at the time), looks a lot worse now.  Mike King established himself as a very good starter and the Padres were able to flip Drew Thorpe for Dylan Cease, who had a top 5 Cy Young finish with them.  

Something that won't get the full attention it deserves as well: The Yankees have offered over a billion dollars the past two off-seasons to players that chose other teams over them.  Yoshinobu Yamamoto turned down 300m to join the Dodgers for 325m, and now Juan Soto turned down 760m to go to the Mets for potentially 800m.  It's a concerning trend that cannot become a pattern for what used to be a destination franchise.

What's Next

This is the (760) million dollar question facing GM Brian Cashman.  All of the Yankees' ideal offseason scenarios revolved around resigning Juan Soto.  It was sign Juan Soto and improve at first base with Christian Walker. Or sign Juan Soto and improve the rotation by adding in Max Fried/Blake Snell. 

Losing Soto officially creates two holes in the outfield in center field and left field, with Aaron Judge presumably moving back to right field.  Jasson Dominguez will get every chance to win the centerfield job out of spring training, but left field will either have to be resolved by Jazz Chilsolm (opening up another hole in the infield, more on that in a second), or someone outside the organization like a Teoscar Hernandez, Anthony Santander, or trade target.  

In the infield, the Yankees have a hole at second base and first base currently. Jazz can move to either second base, left field, or center field, but doing that would re-create the hole at third base they've been trying to fill for years.  The Yankees are high on prospect Caleb Durbin who seems to fill in at second base, but that will be two unproven players (in Durbin and Dominguez) that a team with World Series aspirations will be relying on.  First base Christian Walker still makes a ton of sense, but pairing Pete Alonso with Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton could be a nightmare for opposing pitchers.

It wouldn't be surprising to see Cashman pivot his focus from run creation (Juan Soto, Pete Alonso) to run prevention (Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Tanner Scott/Jeff Hoffman).  A rotation featuring Gerrit Cole and Corbin Burnes would be the best 1-2 punch in the league by a decent amount and would change their roster construction to be more similar to the Mariners (+ Aaron Judge and others), relying on a dominant pitching staff to help them win games.  

How the Deferring Dodgers strategy is good for baseball and the latest on the Soto Sweepstakes

What if the key to baseball’s future lies in a strategy that only one team can currently pull off? 

As the Winter Meetings approach, the Los Angeles Dodgers bold approach to contracts has helped them set the foundation for a dynasty, potentially redefining how teams approach roster construction in the process.

Meanwhile, the Soto sweepstakes loom large, promising to shape the offseason in dramatic fashion. Let’s dive into why the Dodgers’ new strategy might be good for baseball—and how the Juan Soto saga is playing out so far.

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Dodgers Spending Habits

"The Los Angeles Deferrals", "Deferring Dodgers", "Sport Ruiners". These nicknames have been thrown at the Los Angeles Dodgers recently, especially after signing another marquee player to a big contract...with deferred money.  While some view this negatively, Andrew Friedman’s strategy is a masterstroke—one that’s not just beneficial for the Dodgers but for baseball as a whole. The best part for Friedman? It might only work for them.

The Dodgers have signed plenty of stars in recent years, persuading them to agree to some form of deferral in the contract.  Shohei Ohtani's deal is the most notorious example, deferring 680 million of his $700 million contract to 2034-2043. However, other players such as Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernandez, Blake Snell, Tommy Edman, and Will Smith have also agreed to Deferrals

Why it Works for Players:

The benefits for players are clear:

• Tax Advantages: Deferring income allows players to reduce exposure to California's high state taxes
• Financial Flexibility: Future earnings from deferred contracts don't reduce players' ability to sign new lucrative deals.  For example, if Ohtani signs another contract worth $30 million annually after 2034, he'd earn that $30 million plus the deferred $68 million from the Dodgers, totaling $98 million annually (pre-taxes).

Why it Works for The Dodgers:

From the team's perspective, deferrals provide immediate financial flexibility and extend their championship window.  For example, Ohtani only being paid $2 million cash from the Dodgers allowed them to sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto to a historic deal.  Additionally:

• Luxury Tax Relief: the luxury tax calculation is based on the adjusted average annual value (AAV) of the contract. Ohtani's $700 million/10-year deal has an AAV of $46 million, not $70 million.  This $24 million difference could save the dodgers hundreds of millions in taxes over time.
• Competitive Advantage: By lowering their luxury tax burden, the Dodgers are able to offer more guaranteed money with lesser tax implications since the payments are spread over a longer period of time than the contract.

One thing that helps the Dodgers is that they are currently the premier destination for most players. They've been a model in terms of player development and team-building.  Almost every player can improve with the Dodgers player development staff and will be competing for championships.  Now, the Dodgers have found a way to mitigate the biggest con (California Taxes) that come with playing for them, while also giving them more financial flexibility to improve the roster.

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Soto Sweepstakes

As of now, five teams have reportedly made formal offers to Juan Soto: the Red Sox, Mets, Yankees, Blue Jays and Dodgers.  However, it's unlikely these are their final offers.  Soto's decision-making process isn't only about getting a record breaking contract, but also about joining a team poised for perennial World Series contention.  In his initial meetings with teams, he reported asked about player development, roster-building plans, and long-term competitiveness among other things.

Red Sox

The Red Sox have significant roster holes to fill, including adding multiple starting pitchers and upgrading at least two infield spots. While their farm system is among the best in baseball, their prospects remain unproven at the MLB level. Adding Soto would help, but their issues may require trades—like one for star lefty Garrett Crochet—to truly compete. 

Mets

Even with Frankie Montas signed, the Mets still desperately need starting pitching. They also face uncertainties at first and second base, especially with the potential departure of Pete Alonso. Swapping Soto for Alonso might improve their lineup but wouldn’t close their competitive gap with teams like the Dodgers or Padres.

Yankees

The Yankees seem to be set with starting pitching (even though they could use more), but still have three holes they need to fill.  Depending on where Jazz plays, two of left field, second base and third base, as well as first base needs to be addressed this offseason.  Additionally the Yankees are losing multiple reliable bullpen arms and will need to bolster their pen.

Blue Jays

The Blue Jays face an uphill battle. Burdened by large contracts for George Springer, Kevin Gausman, and José Berríos, they also need to extend Vladimir Guerrero Jr. If signing Soto means losing Vladdy Jr., it’s hard to see Soto committing to Toronto.  They'll also need more from Bichette/have a plan to replace him, as he was terrible in 2024 and probably isn't in the teams long term plans anymore.

Dodgers

If Soto wants to win championships, he should sign with the Dodgers. They have multiple stars locked up for years, just beat him in the Yankees in the World Series, and have the best player development in the sport.  However, the Dodgers have so much money on the books and Soto has said he does not want to sign a deferred contract, making his salary a tough fit into the Dodgers payroll.  They'll keep doing their due dilligence to see if the market breaks their way, but they probably won't be willing to make the financial commitment required to get Soto's services.

Dark Horse: Phillies

While they haven't made a formal offer yet, the Phillies have had reported interest in Soto.  They're a very complete team, with a strong pitching staff and strong lineup.  The Phillies could reunite the ex-young Nationals stars Trea Turner, Juan Soto, and Bryce Harper, complimenting them with Kyle Schwarber, JT Realmuto, and others.  The front office has been aggressive in past years and they might be willing to spend, especially if they're able to move Nick Castellanos to free up some cash and a spot in RF for Soto.